20世纪80年代以来，我国持续推动了各阶段教育机会的扩张，使得就业人口的教育水平不断提升。与此同时，我国的人口结构和经济发展水平也发生了巨大变化。从人口结构来看，表现最为明显的是人口年龄结构逐渐偏向于老龄化以及就业人口比重逐渐下降；从经济发展水平来看，就业人口和总人口人均收入都实现了快速增长，但前者增速更大。面对教育、人口结构及经济发展水平同时变动，人们普遍关心的问题是：教育是否对人口结构产生影响？如果产生影响，将这一因素考虑进来后，教育进一步对经济增长产生什么影响？然而，目前鲜有文献对以上问题进行研究和回答。

本文通过建立两个理论系统对以上问题进行回答。其一，通过建立一个同时包含人口结构和经济生产的宏观经济模型，并结合实证分析结果，定性和定量分析教育扩张对人口结构和经济增长的影响。其二，通过建立一个将家庭教育和生育决策内生化的宏观经济模型，并结合中国宏观经济参数，定性和定量分析公共教育投入对人口结构和经济增长的影响。通过分析主要有以下发现：

对于教育扩张对人口结构和经济增长的影响，（1）从人口年龄结构来看，教育扩张对少儿人口比重、成年人口比重和毕业成年人口比重有着负向影响，但是对老年人口比重有着正向影响。因此，教育扩张加剧了人口年龄结构的老龄化。（2）从人口抚养比来看，教育扩张对少儿抚养比有着负向影响，而对老年抚养比和总抚养比有着正向影响。因此，尽管教育扩张减少了经济体的少儿抚养负担，但是增加了老年抚养负担和总抚养负担。（3）从劳动参与率来看，教育扩张对成年人劳动参与率、老年人劳动参与率和总人口劳动参与率都有着负向影响。因此，教育扩张减少了成年人、老年人和总人口的经济活动参与程度。（4）从就业人口比重来看，教育扩张对成年人就业比重、老年人就业比重和总人口就业比重的影响都有着负向影响。因此，教育扩张减少了成年人、老年人和总人口的经济生产参与程度。（5）从人均收入来看，教育扩张对就业人口人均收入和总人口人均收入都有着正向影响。因此，教育扩张提升了就业人口和总人口的经济福利。

对于公共教育投入对人口结构和经济增长的影响，（1）从家庭教育和生育决策来看，公共教育投入对家庭教育投资产生正向影响，但是对家庭生育产生负向影响。因此，公共教育投入使得家庭相对于子女数量，更加重视子女质量。（2）从人口年龄结构来看，公共教育投入对少儿人口比重和成年人口比重产生负向影响，而对老年人口比重产生正向影响。因此，公共教育投入加剧了人口年龄结构的老龄化。（3）从人口抚养比来看，公共教育投入对少儿抚养比有着负向影响，而对老年抚养比和总抚养比有着正向影响。因此，尽管公共教育投入减少了经济体的少儿抚养负担，但是增加了老年抚养负担和总抚养负担。（4）从经济增长率来看，公共教育投入促进了经济的增长。因此，公共教育投入有利于经济的持续发展。

综上所述，教育加剧了人口老龄化，提升了人口抚养负担，以及降低了劳动参与率和就业人口比重；但是对就业人口人均收入、总人口人均收入和经济增长率产生正向影响。基于以上研究结论，本研究得出以下政策启示：（1）继续推行教育扩张政策，促进居民收入水平提升。（2）实施鼓励生育政策，促进人口持续健康发展。（3）实施延迟退休政策，促进劳动力供给水平提升。

Since the 1980s, China has continuously promoted the expansion of educational opportunities at all stages, which has led to a continuous improvement in the educational level of the employed population. At the same time, China's population structure and economic development level have also undergone tremendous changes. From the perspective of population structure, the most obvious manifestations are that the age structure of the population gradually tends to be aging and the proportion of the employed population is gradually declining; from the perspective of economic development level, both the employed population and the per capita income of the total population have achieved rapid growth, but the growth rate of the former bigger. In the face of simultaneous changes in education, population structure and economic development level, people are generally concerned about the question: Does education have an impact on population structure? If it does, what effect does education have on economic growth taking this factor into account? However, there is little literature to study and answer the above questions.

This paper answers the above questions by establishing two theoretical systems. First, by establishing a macroeconomic model that includes both population structure and economic production, and combining empirical analysis results, qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the impact of educational expansion on population structure and economic growth. Second, by establishing a macroeconomic model that endogenizes family education and reproductive decision-making, combined with China's macroeconomic parameters, qualitative and quantitative analysis of the impact of public education investment on population structure and economic growth. The main findings from the analysis are as follows:

Regarding the impact of educational expansion on population structure and economic growth, (1) From the perspective of population age structure, educational expansion has a negative impact on the proportion of children's population, the proportion of adult population and the proportion of graduated adult population, but has a positive impact on the proportion of the elderly population influences. Therefore, the expansion of education exacerbates the aging of the age structure of the population. (2) From the perspective of population dependency ratio, education expansion has a negative impact on the child dependency ratio, while it has a positive impact on the old-age dependency ratio and the total dependency ratio. Thus, while education expansion reduces the child support burden of an economy, it increases the old-age support burden and the total support burden. (3) From the labor force participation rate, the expansion of education has a negative impact on the labor force participation rate of adults, the labor force participation rate of the elderly, and the labor force participation rate of the total population. Thus, educational expansion reduces the level of participation in economic activity among adults, older adults, and the general population. (4) From the perspective of the proportion of the employed population, the expansion of education has a negative impact on the proportion of employment of adults, the proportion of employment of the elderly, and the proportion of employment of the total population. Thus, educational expansion reduces the economic production participation of adults, the elderly, and the general population. (5) From the perspective of per capita income, education expansion has a positive impact on the per capita income of the employed population and the per capita income of the total population. Thus, educational expansion increases the economic well-being of the employed population and the general population.

Regarding the impact of public education investment on population structure and economic growth, (1) from the perspective of family education and reproductive decisions, public education investment has a positive impact on family education investment, but has a negative impact on family fertility. Therefore, public education investment makes families pay more attention to the quality of children than the number of children. (2) From the perspective of population age structure, public education investment has a negative impact on the proportion of children and adults, while it has a positive impact on the proportion of the elderly. Therefore, public education investment has exacerbated the aging of the population age structure. (3) From the perspective of population dependency ratio, public education investment has a negative impact on the child dependency ratio, while it has a positive impact on the old-age dependency ratio and the total dependency ratio. Therefore, although public education investment reduces the child support burden of the economy, it increases the old-age support burden and the total support burden. (4) From the perspective of economic growth rate, public education investment has promoted economic growth. Therefore, public education investment is conducive to the sustainable development of the economy.

To sum up, education aggravates the aging of the population, increases the burden of supporting the population, and reduces the labor force participation rate and the proportion of the employed population; however, it has a positive impact on the per capita income of the employed population, the per capita income of the total population, and the economic growth rate. Based on the above research conclusions, this research draws the following policy implications: (1) Continue to implement the education expansion policy to promote the improvement of residents' income level. (2) Implement the policy of encouraging childbearing to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the population. (3) Implement the policy of delaying retirement to promote the level of labor supply.