本文对我国生猪一级和二级规模化养殖指数进行了测算，进而 分析了肉猪产业规模化趋势；在此基础上构建了我国 19 个养殖大省 肉猪年出栏量面板数据，通过使用双重差分模型，得到了环保政策和 规模化养殖对肉猪年出栏量的影响；本文进而引入空间效应模型，衡 量了省份之间的相互影响；后，利用 2012 年至 2019 年猪肉价格和 消费者物价指数（CPI）的月度数据，本文引入非线性蒙特卡洛因果 检验模型，发现 CPI 对猪肉价格具有长期影响，而猪肉价格对 CPI 的 影响仅在较短时期内显著。 

In this paper, we calculated the first- and second-level large-scale farming indexes of live pigs in China, and studied the trend of large-scale hog industry; on this basis, the panel data of the annual slaughter volume of 19 large-scale breeding provinces in China was constructed, which brought DID model obtains the impact of environmental protection policies and large-scale breeding on the annual slaughter of pigs, and further introduces a spatial effect model to measure the mutual influence between provinces. Finally, using the monthly data of pork prices and CPI from 2012 to 2019, this paper introduces a nonlinear Monte Carlo causality test model and finds that CPI has a long-term impact on pork prices, while the impact of pork prices on CPI is only significant in a short period of time.