红松(Pinus koraiensis Sieb. et Zucc.)，隶属于松科(Pinaceae)，松属(Pinus)， 五针松组(Sect. Cembra Spach)，多分布于我国东北吉林山区，长白山地区及小兴 安岭地区，是我国东北地区主要森林树种之一。在过去的 20 年里，由于人为因 素和自然病害等影响，红松种群面积大幅度下降，1999 年红松被列为国家二级 重点保护野生植物。以往对于珍稀物种的研究大多着眼于种群瓶颈、生境破碎等 能够对物种造成直接影响的生态威胁，或者根据物种现存种群的遗传变异和遗传 分化水平估计物种演化潜力，忽视了物种长期演化历史的影响。因此，本研究以 中国东北地区的红松种群为研究对象，结合分子生态学、种群生态学、亲缘地理 学以及生态位模型等相关理论方法，对红松的种群结构、遗传多样性以及种群历 史动态进行分析和探讨，深入了解现存红松种群的形成原因，对气候变化的响应 模式，推测种群未来的变化趋势。 本研究利用 12 对核基因组微卫星引物对中国东北地区 25 个红松种群共 778 个样本个体进行分子实验和数据分析，结果显示：（1）贝叶斯分析结果显示红松 种群之间分组并不明显，邻接法聚类分析和主坐标分析（PCoA）结果也证实了 种群中没有明显的遗传分化；（2）红松种群的遗传多样性指数中，等位基因数目 N a 平均值为 6.257（取值范围 5.833 ~ 6.667），观测杂合度 H o 平均值为 0.645（取值范围 0.570 ~ 0.768），期望杂合度 H e 平均值为 0.616 （取值范围 0.569 ~ 0.665），无偏期望杂合度 UH e 平均值为 0.626（取值范围 0.578 ~ 0.676），近交系数 F IS 平均值为-0.033（取值范围-0.101 ~ 0.036），遗传分化系数 F ST = 0.0136；Mantel 检验结果表明种群遗传距离并未受到地理距离影响，遗传多样性不随着纬度的增加而减小，在中国东北地区分布比较均匀；（3）瓶颈效应检测结果显示，25 个红松种群在多步突变模型中没有表现出经历过瓶颈效应；模拟出的种群动态历史显示，红松种群可能并未经历过急剧收缩或扩张的历史事件，而是经历了有效种群大小逐渐减少的过程。气候生态位模型结果表明，红松在末次盛冰期种群向南回 缩至我国长白山地区和朝鲜半岛，冰期结束之后重新经历了种群扩张，最终形成当前的地理分布范围，未来分布区模型预测结果显示红松种群将继续向北扩张，南部种群收缩，种群整体向北迁移。 综上所述，本研究认为中国东北地区的现存红松种群在末次盛冰期可能只有一个冰期避难所位于长白山地区。冰期结束之后，残存的红松祖先种群通过种群前沿向北缓慢推进的渐进式扩张模式，利用风媒传粉机制在源种群和新种群之间带来基因交流，使扩张后的种群仍保有相似的遗传信息和遗传多样性。在缓慢的世代更替中，红松种群大小逐渐扩张，但是有效种群的恢复和增加可能需要更长的世代时间。红松可能会受到未来气候变暖的影响，逐渐向北方缓慢迁移。

Pinus koraiensis Sieb. et Zucc., Pinaceae, Pinus, Sect. Cembra Spach, which is distributed in the Jilin mountainous area, Changbai Mountain area and Xiaoxing'anling area in China. It is one of the main forest tree species in Northeast China. In the past 20 years, due to human factors and natural diseases, the population of Pinus koraiensis has decreased significantly. In 1999, Pinus koraiensis was listed as a national secondary protected wild plant. Previous studies on rare species focused on ecological threats that can directly affect species such as population bottlenecks and habitat fragmentation, or estimated species evolution potential based on genetic variation and genetic differentiation of existing populations, ignoring the impact of long-term evolutionary history. Therefore, this study used the Pinus koraiensis population in Northeast China as a research object, based on molecular ecology,population ecology, phylogenetic geography, niche model and other related theoretical methods, combined with the population structure, genetic diversity and population dynamics of Pinus koraiensis. Understanding the reasons for the formation of existing Pinus koraiensis populations, response patterns to climate change, speculation of future trends in the population. This study used 12 pairs of nuclear genome microsatellite primers to conduct molecular experiments and data analysis on a total of 778 samples of 25 Pinus koraiensis populations in Northeastern China. The results showed : (1) Bayesian analysis results show that Pinus koraiensis populations had no obvious genetic structure, the Neighbor - Joining clustering analysis and principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) results also confirmed that there was no obvious genetic differentiation in the populations；(2) In the genetic diversity index of Pinus koraiensis populations, the average value of the number of alleles (N a ) was 6.257(value range 5.833 - 6.667), the average of the observed heterozygosity (H o ) was 0.645(value range 0.570 - 0.768), the average value of the expected heterozygosity (H e ) was 0.616(value range 0.569 -0.665), the average value of the unbiased-expected heterozygosity (UH e ) was 0.626(value range 0.578 - 0.676), and the average value of the inbreeding coefficient (F IS ) was -0.033(value range -0.101 - 0.036), genetic differentiation coefficient F ST = 0.0136. The results of mantel test showed that the genetic distance of the population is not affected by the geographical distance, the genetic diversity does not decrease with the increase of latitude, and the distribution is more uniform in Northeast China; (3) The results of bottleneck detection showed that 25 Pinus koraiensis populations did not show a bottleneck effect in the multi-step mutation model; the history of population dynamics suggests that the Pinus koraiensis population may not have experienced a sharp contraction or expansion, but a gradual decrease in the effective population size. The results of the climate niche model indicated that the population of Pinus koraiensis retreated to the south of Changbai mountain areas in China and the Korean Peninsula during the last glacial maximum. After the end of the glacial period, the population expanded again and eventually formed the current geographical distribution. The prediction results of the future distribution area model showed the Pinus koraiensis population will continue to expand northward, the southern populations shrink and the whole population migrates northward. In summary, this study suggests that the existing Pinus koraiensis population in northeastern China may have only one ice-age refugia in the Changbai Mountain area during the last glacial maximum. The remaining ancestral population of Pinus koraiensis gradually progressed northward through the front of the population after the end of the glacial period. The wind-borne pollination mechanism brings about genetic communication between the original population and the new population, so that the expanded population still retains similar genetic information and genetic diversity. In the slow generational replacement, the population of Pinus koraiensis gradually expands, but the recovery and increase of effective populations may take longer generations. Pinus koraiensis may be affected by future climate warming and gradually migrate to the north.