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中文题名:

 中国股票市场的经济影响研究——基于股价信息效率经济后果视角    

姓名:

 李跃    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 中文    

学科代码:

 020101    

学科专业:

 政治经济学    

学生类型:

 博士    

学位:

 经济学博士    

学位类型:

 学术学位    

学位年度:

 2018    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 经济与资源管理研究院    

研究方向:

 产业经济研究    

第一导师姓名:

 刘世锦    

第一导师单位:

 中国发展研究基金会    

第二导师姓名:

 张生玲    

提交日期:

 2018-04-09    

答辩日期:

 2018-05-29    

外文题名:

 The Effect of China’s Stock Market on Economy——Analysis Based on Economic Consequences of Price Informational Efficiency    

中文关键词:

 股价信息效率 ; 反馈效应 ; 交易者行为 ; 资本调整成本    

中文摘要:
股票市场有何经济影响,以及如何发挥其服务经济社会发展功能,一直是国内外研究者和政策制定者共同关注的话题。2017年7月习总书记在全国金融工作会议中指出,“金融要回归本源,服从服务于经济社会发展”。然而,政治、制度、历史、文化等诸多因素使中国股票市场成为信息低效率市场。上市公司股价与其基本面背离,暴涨暴跌现象频发,信息摩擦造成的资源错配问题已不容忽视。从经济转轨动态视角看,转轨初期股票市场建立的初衷是服务国企改革。但经济转轨中后期,经济发展对股票市场的需求开始向其信息功能倾斜。而股价反映和传递信息的低效率,使股票市场无法跟进其服务功能。 股票市场服务功能优化首先应认清股票市场的经济影响。股价信息效率通过影响上市公司管理者决策而产生“经济后果”,是股票市场经济影响的重要微观基础。因此,本文从该视角分析股票市场的经济影响,以及决定现阶段股票市场经济影响的场内外因素,并提出相应的政策建议。 全文共分为6章。主要对以下问题进行了讨论:(1)股价信息效率与其经济后果的内涵(2)股价信息效率视角下股票市场的经济影响机理(3)股票市场“最优经济影响”的理论探讨(4)基于股价信息效率经济后果检验,分析股票市场的经济影响(5)决定股票市场经济影响的场内外因素(6)相关政策建议。 在研究过程中,采用理论阐述与数理模型、理论分析与经验研究相结合、实证研究与规范研究相结合等多种方法,使得研究结论建立在可信的分析基础上。 主要工作与结论有: 一是梳理了股价信息效率及其经济后果的相关文献。将股价信息效率分为股价启示效率(RPE,股价反馈信息有多少被企业接收)和股价预期效率(FPE,股价多大程度的反映企业未来价值),分析了两种信息效率在特定水平下表现出的经济后果,即:当股价启示效率有效时,股价汇总并反馈信息后被企业接收,反馈效应显现;当股价预期效率非有效时,股价脱离基本面运行,错误定价的影响显现。进一步从该角度分析了股票市场的经济影响机理。同时,为避免微观视角下对股票市场经济影响判断的狭隘性,故从宏观的、动态的、多理论融合的视角对股票市场的“最优经济影响”进行理论探讨,阐述信息高效率市场服务经济发展的理论逻辑。 二是基于股价信息效率的经济后果检验,分析现阶段股票市场的经济影响。检验结果表明,信息低效率市场不但较少的传递有价值信息,反而因“反馈信息的误导性”和“错误定价引发的过度投资”,导致企业投资非效率;企业TFP、决策者意愿与代理成本等方面的检验结果表明,市场信息低效率水平下,决策者改善基本面的意愿正逐渐受到“侵蚀”;考虑到股价信息只是决策投入的一小部分,即使被企业接收,对企业绩效影响有限,相关维度较难捕捉到反馈效应,故从企业研发行为视角对其进行再检验。分析发现股价信息含量提升能够促进企业研发强度,产生“激励效应”,这是反馈效应存在的证据。 三是实证分析了决定股票市场经济影响的场内外因素。当前,股票市场经济影响的决定性因素在于市场信息效率水平。故场内因素方面,重点分析了交易者行为与市场信息低效率关系。实证结果表明,现阶段市场处于投机者绝对强势状态,表现出噪音对知情人特质信息注入的绝对压制。说明投机主义势力过强是市场信息低效率的重要原因。场外因素方面,考虑到企业信息接收意愿(能力)会影响投资者搜集信息的积极性,进而影响市场信息效率。而资本调整成本较大会降低企业接收信息意愿,故重点检验资本调整成本对反馈效应的影响。结果表明,资本调整成本削弱了反馈效应。综上,场内外因素共同决定了现阶段股票市场的经济影响,尤其是企业信息接收意愿(能力)相关的场外因素应受到重视。 四是基于研究结论提出相应的政策建议。未来市场信息高效率是股票市场发挥服务功能前提,而“股东本位”的制度供给理念转变、强化市场参与者的信息意识是提升信息效率的关键。同时,应采取场内外多措施并举提升市场信息效率。 本文可能的创新点是:以股价信息效率经济后果视角检验了股票市场的经济影响,通过多维度检验结果的相互印证确保结论可靠性;将企业接收信息意愿(能力)纳入分析范围,探索决定现阶段股票市场信息效率及其经济影响的场内外因素,提出相应的政策建议,以使投资者与上市公司之间借助股价形成信息互动。
外文摘要:
The real effect of stock market on economy, and how to play its role in serving economic and social development,has always been hot topic for researchers and policy makers. However,factors such as politics, institutions, history, and culture,have made the current stock market a informationally inefficient market,leading to its difficult to exert its service function,the risk of “going out of reality” has always being existed.From the dynamic perspective of economic transition,the original intention of the stock market establishment in the early transition period was to serve the reform of state-owned enterprises.However, in the middle and later stages of economic transition, the demand for the economic development of the stock market began to tilt toward its information function.The inefficiency of the stock price makes it difficult for the stock market to follow its service function. The optimization of the service function of the stock market should first recognize the economic impact of the stock market.The consequences resulting in effect of stock price informational efficiency on the listed companies performance is an important micro-foundation.Therefore,this paper analyzes the stock market’s effect on economy from this perspective,and its market internal and external factors.Then proposes corresponding policy recommendations. Several methods,such as the combination of theoretical explanation and mathematical model, theoretical analysis and empirical research, and combination of empirical research and normative research,were used to make the research conclusions based on credible analysis. This paper includes 6 chapters,dealing with seven problems:(1)The connotation of price informational efficiency and its consequences.(2)The mechanism of stock market’s effect on economy from the perspective of stock price informational efficiency.(3)The theoretical analysis of stock market’s “optimal economic effect”.(4)Analysis of stock market’s effect based on consequences of price informational efficiency.(5)Internal and external factors that determine the stock market’s effect.(6)Policy recommendations. The main work and conclusion of this paper are follows: Firstly,Sorting out relevant literature on price informational efficiency and its consequences.Stock price information is divided into RPE(forecasting price efficiency,how much stock price feedback information is received by the company) and FPE(revelatory price efficiency,how much the stock price reflects the future company value),and analyzes th consequences of two kinds of price informational efficiency at a certain level:The feedback effect appers when RPE is efficent;mispricing appears when FPE is inefficent.Then analyze mechanism of stock market’s effect on economy from this perspective.At the same time,theoretically explore the stock market’s “optimal effect”from the perspective of macro, dynamic, and multi-theory integration,in order to avoid the narrowness judgment from micro-perspective. Secondly,analysis of the the stock market’s effect based on the consequences of price informational efficiency. results show that the information inefficient market not only transmits valuable information, but also results in “ineffectiveness of feedback information” and “excessive investment caused by mispricing”,leading to inefficiency of corporate investment;Analysis on corporate TFP,willingness of decision makers,and agency cost,shows that the willingness of decision makers to improve the fundamentals is gradually being “eroded”;considering the difficulty of capturing the feedback effect in the corporate performance dimension,re-examine from the perspective of corporate R&D behavior.Analysis show that stock price informativeness promotes the company R&D intensity,generatig an “incentive effect” ,which could serve as evidence for the existence of feedback effects. Thirdly,empirically analyze the internal and external factors that determine the economic impact of the stock market.In terms of internal factors,focuses on analyzing the relationship between the traders behavior and the stock market’s informational inefficiency.Results show that at this stage the market has an strong-power speculators,noise blocks information injection into stock prices.This means that the excessively strong speculative forces is the main cause of market informational inefficiency.For external factors,focus on analyzing the impact of capital adjustment costs on feedback effects.The results show that capital adjustment costs have significantly weakened the feedback effect. In summary, the internal and external facters together determined the stock market’s effect on economy. Fourthly,put forward corresponding policy recommendations.The key to promote market informational efficiency is the transformation of the institutional suppliers’ concept from“enterprise-based” to the “shareholder-based”,and enhanced information awareness of market participants.At the same time,simultaneous internal and external measures should be taken to increase market informationaly efficency. The possible innovations of this paper are follows:Empirically analyzed the real effect of the stock market from the perspective of Economic Consequences of Price Informational Efficiency;Analyzed the willingness (capacity) of the listed company to receive information,extend the research perspective from internal factors to the external facters,proposed corresponding policy recommendations,to establish an informationally interactive relationship between investors and listed companies.
参考文献总数:

 120    

作者简介:

 在校期间以第一作者或主要作者发表国内外本领域核心期刊10余篇,获得北京师范大学孙冶方奖学金    

馆藏地:

 图书馆学位论文阅览区(主馆南区三层BC区)    

馆藏号:

 博020101/18007    

开放日期:

 2019-07-09    

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