随着中国参与全球分工的程度不断加深，生产要素及中间产品在国家或地区间跨境转移，使得中国从出口中获得的实际经济利益被高估。同时，传统贸易理论研究仅强调贸易的经济利益，并未考虑贸易的环境成本特别是碳排放代价。大规模出口带来的生产规模扩张使得中国的能源消费攀升并成为全球第一大碳排放国，对外贸易带来的碳排放代价不容忽视。近年来，贸易保护主义和逆全球化倾向抬头，将会重塑中国及其他国家或地区在全球价值链中的经济利益和碳排放成本。当前绿色发展成为各国共同追求的目标和全球治理的重要内容，为实现中国的绿色低碳发展，中国参与全球价值链所获经济利益和付出碳排放代价亟需得到充分认识并合理测算，以便综合评估外部贸易环境和政策变动对中国贸易经济利益与碳排放代价的影响。

本论文将贸易的经济利益和碳排放代价纳入统一的研究框架，全面考察中国及其贸易伙伴的绿色贸易利益。论文首先将绿色贸易利益定义为贸易活动给一国带来的经济利益与贸易相关碳排放代价的综合（利益）；在此基础上，基于贸易利益来源与分配理论、贸易的环境影响理论，建立了绿色贸易利益评估理论和方法框架，阐释贸易政策对一国绿色贸易利益影响的机制；进一步，从全球-区域-行业多尺度出发，将基于全球价值链（GVC）的增加值分析方法与包含碳排放模块的全球多区域可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型链接，以CGE-GVC为主体构建了绿色贸易利益影响模拟分析方法；并以绿色贸易利益核算指标评估一国绿色贸易利益得失。

本论文首先对中国对外贸易发展及其碳排放现状进行分析；其次，评估中国对外贸易经济利益获得及付出的碳排放代价，反映中国在全球价值链上的绿色贸易利益现状；进一步地，以中美贸易摩擦为案例，从生产端和贸易端的双重视角，评估贸易保护和逆全球化事件对中国绿色贸易利益的影响。

本论文的主要研究结论如下：

第一，从全球价值链视角出发，在增加值贸易核算框架下对中国出口增加值进行测度和分析发现，虽然中国整体进出口总量不断增长，且一直处于贸易顺差状态，但出口额中为国外获得的增加值占比较大，约为10%~18%；出口额中的国内增加值占比虽然呈上升趋势，但与美日欧等发达国家或区域相比还有提升空间。从贸易增加值产生路径看，中国处于全球价值链的中下游位置，通过进口中间产品加工、组装、生产最终产品再出口获得的增加值占中国出口额比例较大。在同一框架下引入出口隐含碳测算结果表明，中国出口隐含碳中，在国内产生的碳排放占比高达90%，在国外产生的碳排放仅占6%~8%，显示中国出口贸易顺差的获得伴随着较大的碳排放代价。随着中国参与全球价值链的深入，中国整体出口端获益能力不断增长，出口隐含碳排放量先增长后趋于稳定。

第二，分别对出口增加值和出口隐含碳排放进行测算后，进一步测算中国出口增加值碳强度指标和碳贸易条件指标，对中国绿色贸易利益进行评估，并与其主要贸易伙伴进行对比分析，结果表明：中国等发展中经济体比发达经济体面临更为严重的出口经济利益和碳排放代价失衡，在国际贸易中处于相对不利的位置；中国整体碳贸易条件有改善趋势，但与发达经济体之间还有一定差距；从双边贸易看，中国与东盟、俄罗斯和印度等发展中经济体之间出口增加值碳强度较大；而出口美国单位增加值隐含碳排放是从美国进口单位增加值隐含碳排放的近3倍，中美双边绿色贸易利益失衡特征显著。

第三，通过包含了碳排放模块的全球多区域CGE模型，考虑不同程度、不同范围的中美贸易摩擦情景，从生产端模拟分析以中美贸易摩擦为代表的贸易保护事件对中国绿色贸易利益的影响及其溢出效应，结果发现：中美贸易摩擦使得中国GDP和福利都受到影响，虽然生产规模下降使得中国的总体二氧化碳排放下降，但生产结构的劣化变化使得中国单位国内生产总值（GDP）碳排放强度上升，从生产端看，中国绿色贸易利益受损，且受损程度随着两国贸易摩擦程度和范围加深而增强；中美贸易摩擦对美国的GDP、福利、碳排放总量和强度也会产生相似影响；作为中美贸易摩擦的溢出效应，日本、韩国、加拿大、墨西哥、越南等国家或地区经济获益较大；越南、巴西和印度等一些发展中国家或地区的碳排放显著增加，产生一定的碳泄露效应。

第四，从贸易端量化评估中美贸易摩擦对中国绿色贸易利益的影响，结果发现：中美贸易摩擦使得中国出口隐含国内增加值下降，但中国深度参与全球价值链分工（出口增加值率的提高）缓冲了出口获益损失。出口隐含碳排放量下降幅度小于整体出口增加值的下降幅度，使得中国碳贸易条件恶化。由于中国参与全球价值链分工深化，导致中国对美国直接出口贸易隐含碳量在趋于降低的同时，中国与其他区域的价值链分工与隐含碳排放联系加强。

最后，本文基于研究发现，提出平衡经济利益和环境利益的政策建议，包括：优化中国在全球价值链中的分工模式，提高碳排放效率；推进国内产业绿色低碳转型，抵御外部贸易环境变化带来的负面影响；加强全球环境合作，积极推进有利于促进各国各区域绿色贸易利益改善的政策措施。

本研究从贸易的来源与分配理论、贸易的环境影响理论出发，将贸易的经济利益和碳排放代价有机结合，构建了以CGE-GVC方法和绿色贸易利益核算指标为主体的绿色贸易利益影响模拟分析与评估方法体系，从生产端和贸易端的双重视角评估了中国绿色贸易利益现状，揭示了以中美贸易摩擦为代表的贸易保护和逆全球化事件对中国绿色贸易利益的负面影响。本论文研究结果可为开展贸易政策评估、制定绿色贸易政策提供有益借鉴。

With the deepening of the global value chain, China's participation in global division continues to deepen, and the cross-border transfer of production factors and intermediate products between countries or regions has led to an overestimation of the actual economic benefits China gains from exports. At the same time, traditional trade theory only emphasizes the economic benefits of trade, without considering the environmental costs, especially the carbon emissions. The expansion of production scale resulting from large-scale exports has led to a rise in China's energy consumption and made it the world's largest carbon emitter. The carbon emissions caused by foreign trade cannot be ignored. In recent years, trade protectionism and anti-globalization tendencies, represented by the US-China trade friction, have emerged, which will reshape China's and other countries' or regions' economic benefits and carbon emission costs in the global value chain. Currently, green development has become a common goal pursued by all countries and an important part of global governance. In order to achieve China's green and low-carbon development, it is necessary to fully understand and reasonably measure the economic benefits and carbon emission costs China gains from participating in the global value chain, so as to comprehensively evaluate the impact of changes in external trade environment and policies on China's trade economic benefits and carbon emission costs.

This thesis integrates the economic benefits and carbon emission costs of trade into a unified research framework, and comprehensively examines China's and its trading partners' green trade benefits. Firstly, the thesis defines green trade benefits as the comprehensive (benefits) of the economic benefits brought to a country by trade activities and the trade-related carbon emission costs. On this basis, based on the theory of trade benefit sources and distribution and the theory of environmental impact of trade, the thesis establishes a theoretical and methodological framework for evaluating green trade benefits and explains the mechanism of trade policy's impact on a country's green trade benefits. Furthermore, starting from the global-regional-industry multi-scale, the thesis links the value-added analysis method based on the global value chain (GVC) with the global multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model containing a carbon emission module, and constructs a simulation analysis method for the impact of green trade benefits using the CGE-GVC as the main body. Finally, the thesis evaluates a country's green trade benefits and losses based on the green trade benefit accounting index.

The thesis first analyzes China's foreign trade development and its carbon emissions status, then evaluates the carbon emission costs China pays for obtaining foreign trade economic benefits, reflecting China's current green trade benefit status in the global value chain. Furthermore, taking the China-US trade friction as a case study, the thesis evaluates the impact of trade policy shocks on China's green trade benefits from the dual perspectives of production and trade.

The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:

Firstly, from a global value chain perspective, measuring and analyzing the value added of China's exports under the value added trade accounting framework, it is found that although China's overall import and export volume continues to grow and has been in a trade surplus state, the proportion of value added obtained by foreign countries in exports is relatively large, accounting for about 10% to 18%. Although the proportion of domestic value added in export value is increasing, there is still room for improvement compared with developed countries or regions such as the United States, Japan, and Europe. From the perspective of trade value added generation path, China is in the middle and lower reaches of the global value chain, and the proportion of value added obtained by importing intermediate products for processing, assembling, and producing final products for export is relatively large. Introducing the results of the calculation of export embodied carbon under the same framework shows that the proportion of carbon emissions generated domestically in China's export embodied carbon is as high as 90%, while the proportion of carbon emissions generated abroad is only 6% to 8%, indicating that the gain from China's trade surplus is accompanied by a large carbon emission cost. With China's participation in the global value chain, the overall export benefit capacity of China continues to increase, and the export embodied carbon emissions first increase and then stabilize.

Secondly, after calculating the export value added and export embodied carbon emissions respectively, further calculations of China's export value added carbon intensity index and carbon trade condition index were carried out to evaluate China's green trade benefits and compare them with its main trading partners. The results show that developing economies such as China face a more serious imbalance between export economic benefits and carbon emission costs than developed economies, and are in a relatively unfavorable position in international trade. China's overall carbon trade conditions have a trend of improvement, but there is still a certain gap with developed economies. From the perspective of bilateral trade, China has a higher carbon intensity of export value added with developing economies such as ASEAN, Russia, and India, while the embodied carbon emissions per unit of export value to the United States are nearly three times that of imported value added carbon emissions per unit in the United States, highlighting the significant imbalance in China-US green trade benefits.

Thirdly, through a global multi-regional CGE model that includes a carbon emission module, considering different degrees and ranges of US-China trade friction, production-side simulation analysis was carried out to analyze the impact of trade protection policies represented by US-China trade friction on China's green trade benefits and their spillover effects. The results show that US-China trade friction have affected China's GDP and welfare. Although the scale of production has decreased, China's overall CO₂ emissions have decreased, but the deterioration of production structure has led to an increase in the carbon emission intensity of China's unit GDP. From the production side, China's green trade benefits have been damaged, and the degree of damage has increased with the degree and scope of US-China trade frictions. US-China trade frictions will also have similar impacts on the GDP, welfare, total carbon emissions, and intensity of the United States. As a spillover effect of US-China trade frictions, countries or regions such as Japan, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam have benefited more economically. Carbon emissions in some developing countries or regions such as Vietnam, Brazil, and India have increased significantly, resulting in a certain carbon leakage effect.

Finally, based on the research findings, policy recommendations are proposed to balance economic and environmental interests, including optimizing China's division of labor in the global value chain and improving carbon emission efficiency, promoting domestic industry transformation towards green and low-carbon, and strengthening global environmental cooperation to actively promote policy measures that are conducive to improving green trade benefits in various countries and regions.

This study combines the economic benefits and carbon emission costs of trade from the perspectives of the source and distribution theory of trade and the environmental impact theory of trade, and constructs a simulation analysis and evaluation method system for the impact of green trade benefits based on the CGE-GVC method and green trade benefit accounting indicators. It evaluates the current status of China's green trade benefits from both the production and trade perspectives, and reveals the negative impact of trade protection policies represented by Sino-US trade frictions on China's green trade benefits. The research results of this paper can provide useful references for conducting trade policy evaluations and formulating green trade policies.