中文题名: | 偏态投注行为对彩票返奖率的影响及数值模拟 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | 中文 |
学科代码: | 070101 |
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学生类型: | 学士 |
学位: | 理学学士 |
学位年度: | 2019 |
学校: | 北京师范大学 |
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提交日期: | 2019-05-23 |
答辩日期: | 2019-05-20 |
外文题名: | Impact of biased betting on coverage rate on lottery and numeric simulation |
中文关键词: | |
中文摘要: |
在我国,福利彩票和体育彩票一直是国民生活中密不可分的一部分。本文主要从2017年我国超级大乐透彩票数据出发,先简要介绍了超级大乐透开奖规则和奖金设置,再比较了国内外关于彩票研究现状。第二章是基于实际数据进行描述性统计分析,观察到了彩民在投注彩票时有较为明显的偏态性和高倍投性特性,并发现了被投注次数和总注数服从幂律分布。基于彩票投注这一特征,运用幂律分布相关知识对现有数据分别运用线性回归和极大似然估计进行了参数估计。最后从理论上推导了均匀投注情形下覆盖率和销量的关系,运用matlab进行数值模拟均匀分布和不均匀分布两种情形下覆盖率和销量的关系。
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外文摘要: |
Lottery has been an indispensable part in our daily life. In this article, we firstly introduced the rules and bonus setting of Super Lotto in China and compared the researches on Chinese lottery and other western countries. Next, based on the data of 2017 Super Lotto, I found that lottery players choose numbers non-randomly on their tickets, which result in the anomalies in the number of combinations chosen. Then based on these observed characters, I apply the knowledge of power-law distribution to estimate parameters of the distribution and theoretically derive the relation between sales and coverage rate of lottery when people chose their number randomly and non-randomly. At last, I apply Matlab to numerically simulate the coverage rate and sales under two circumstances.
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参考文献总数: | 14 |
插图总数: | 5 |
插表总数: | 4 |
馆藏号: | 本070101/19179 |
开放日期: | 2020-07-09 |