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中文题名:

 FDI流入影响服务贸易出口结构的实证研究    

姓名:

 赵东婧    

学科代码:

 020206    

学科专业:

 国际贸易学    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 经济学硕士    

学位年度:

 2015    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 经济与工商管理学院    

研究方向:

 国际投资理论与实践    

第一导师姓名:

 仲鑫    

第一导师单位:

 北京师范大学国际经济与贸易系    

提交日期:

 2015-06-24    

答辩日期:

 2015-05-27    

外文题名:

 AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE EFFECT FDI INFLOWS HAD ON THE STRUCTURE OF TRADE IN SERVICES    

中文摘要:
随着经济全球化日益纵深发展,国际投资和贸易均呈现出新的特点,国际投资在发展中国家增速明显,国际贸易格局也从以货物贸易为主,转变为货物贸易和服务贸易并重发展的局面,并逐步向服务贸易倾斜,服务贸易领域成为了各国竞争的焦点,而2013年中国服务贸易进出口额居世界第三位,出口居世界第五位。在此背景之下,本文拟通过规范分析、实证分析和对比分析的方法,探讨FDI流入与东道国服务贸易出口结构的关系。本文开篇回顾了国内外关于FDI与服务贸易结构的相关文献,之后分析了目前世界各国和中国的FDI流入和服务贸易的现状,发现中国的服务业FDI行业分布不均,服务贸易结构与世界主要发达国家相比也还有一定差距。在此基础上,根据FDI影响服务贸易出口结构的理论传导机制,建立模型进行实证分析,选取66个国家作为样本国,采用1996年-2012年的年度区间数据,就整体层面、不同国家经济发展水平和不同国家服务业FDI限入水平进行分组回归,将样本国按不同标准分为发达国家、中等发达国家、初等发达国家、欠发达国家和服务业FDI低限入、中低限入、中等限入、中高限入、高限入国家,探讨FDI流入以及服务贸易进口等其他因素对服务贸易结构在不同国家的影响,并通过中介效应分析,尝试探寻FDI通过技术研发投入效应、人力资本积累效应和物质资本积累效应对服务贸易结构的中介效应的显著性。研究结果表明FDI的作用虽然整体看有一定的正向效应,但在不同国家间的表现差异较大,在发达国家、服务业FDI低限入和中低限入国家作用不显著,在中等发达国家、欠发达国家和服务业FDI中高限入、高限入国家有显著的正效应;而服务贸易进口在整体层面和大多数国家分组回归中均有正向促进作用,经济自由度在整体层面来看有正向效应;整体层面上来看,FDI通过技术研发投入、人力资本积累和物质资本积累三者影响服务贸易结构的中介效应,都是显著的,且作用都比较明显,但不同国家组别之间差异也较大。技术研发投入在中等发达国家、欠发达国家和服务业FDI中等限入、中高限入国家有显著的正向效应,而人力资本积累和物质资本积累的中介效应只在中等发达国家有正向促进作用。最后本文根据回归结果,主要针对中国现阶段的发展提出相应的政策建议:倡导积极有效合理的引资政策,适当减少对新兴服务行业的引资限制,引导FDI向高附加值的新兴服务贸易行业流动;重视基础设施的修建、高端人才的培养与引进以及服务贸易进口的作用,加强与发达国家的交流合作,紧抓“一带一路”战略机遇,加快中国产业结构调整和升级。
外文摘要:
With the further development of economic globalization, international investment and trade both are showing new features. International investment in developing countries has an obvious growth. The pattern of international trade also swifts from mainly by trade in goods to shared by both trade in goods and services, which makes the field of service trade become the focus of global competition. And Chinese service trade import and export volume ranks third, exports ranked fifth in the world in 2013. With this background, this paper try to investigate the relationship between FDI inflows and the service trade structure of host countries through the method of normative analysis, empirical analysis and comparative analysis. The paper firstly reviews the relevant literature about FDI and the structure of trade in services at home and abroad. Then it analyses the present situation on FDI inflows and trade in services all over the world and in China. We find that the distribution of Chinese FDI in different service industries is unequal, and the structure of Chinese service trade also has a certain gap compared to the developed countries in the world. After that it selects effective indexes and collects data of 66 countries from 1996 to 2012 to establish the regression model, according to the theoretical transmission mechanism on how FDI influences service trade export. And it divide the 66 countries into groups by different economic development levels and different countries’ limit level of FDI in service industries to do the regression, dividing them into the first classification of rich, middle-income, low-income and poor countries, the second classification of FDI in service industries lower limit, low limit, medium high, high limit and higher limit countries. We discuss how some other factors, such as FDI inflows and imports of trade in services effect the structure of trade in services in different countries. Also it try to explore the mesomeric effect of FDI on the structure of trade in services through R&D investment effect, the accumulation of human capital and material capital accumulation effect by the method of the mesomeric effect analysis. The results show that FDI has a positive effect from the overall perspective, but which varies enormously among different countries. It doesn’t play a significant role in developed countries, service FDI lower limit and low limit countries, but has a significant positive effect in middle-income, poor countries and service FDI high limit, higher limit countries. And service trade import has a promotion effect in the overall level and most groups of countries, economic freedom has a positive effect in the overall level. From the overall statistic samples, the mesomeric effect of FDI on the structure of trade in services through R&D investment effect, the accumulation of human capital and material capital accumulation effect are all significant and obvious. However, it is distinct in different groups of countries. R&D investment has significant positive effects in middle-income, poor countries and service FDI medium limit, high limit countries. While the mediating effect of the accumulation of human capital and material capital only has a positive effect in middle-income countries.Finally, according to the regression results, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations aiming at the present development level of Chinese service trade. We can actively advocate the reasonable policy of attracting foreign investment, appropriately reduce investment limit in the emerging service industries. guide the FDI flows to the high value-added emerging service trade. And pay more attention to the construction of infrastructure, the cultivation and introduction of sophisticated talents and the effect of service import. Strengthen exchanges and cooperation with developed countries, seize the opportunity brought by the “One Belt and One Road” strategy to accelerate Chinese industrial restructuring and upgrading.
参考文献总数:

 37    

馆藏号:

 硕020206/1501    

开放日期:

 2015-06-24    

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