- 无标题文档
查看论文信息

中文题名:

 国际贸易网络的距离测度及其应用    

姓名:

 吴宗柠    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 中文    

学科代码:

 071101    

学科专业:

 系统理论    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 理学硕士    

学位类型:

 学术学位    

学位年度:

 2019    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 系统科学学院    

研究方向:

 复杂网络分析    

第一导师姓名:

 樊瑛    

第一导师单位:

 北京师范大学系统科学学院    

提交日期:

 2019-05-24    

答辩日期:

 2019-06-03    

外文题名:

 Research of the distance measurement in international trade networks and its applications    

中文关键词:

 国际贸易网络 ; QAP回归模型 ; 引力模型 ; 流距离 ; 网络嵌入    

中文摘要:
全球化与经济一体化的深入与高度融合,这使得以“联系”为基础的网络科学理论与方法能够应用于国际贸易领域的研究,形成了国际贸易网络。以系统论与复杂性科学的视角出发,关注国家的经济行为、经贸关系结构及其演化规律。对国际贸易网络距离测度的研究,有助于从数量与机制上解释国际贸易,为相关部门与组织的贸易政策制定提供理论基础与参考。本文提出了研究国际贸易网络距离测度的方法,并将其应用于量化国家在全球贸易价值链的地位。本文分别从计量回归分析和网络结构两个角度研究了影响贸易网络的距离要素与贸易有效距离的量化。 在探究国际贸易网络距离效应方面:本文基于随机化检验算法和计量回归分析模型,讨论了国际贸易网络形成动因,进而分析了多维度下的贸易距离。研究结果表明:国民生产总值和地理距离依然是影响贸易关系和贸易流量的重要因素,而其他因素对于区域贸易和全球贸易的影响较弱。在此基础上,本文提出空间距离敏感系数进一步实证了国际贸易中的“距离之谜”,并发现距离和经济规模对贸易的影响效应具有差异性;在引入不同产品的分析下,国际小麦贸易的决定因素在多产品、多要素联动效应具有显著的叠加作用。 在量化国家贸易距离测度方面:本文基于国际贸易、投入产出理论和开放系统的特点,提出了适用于国际贸易距离的量化指标--流距离,讨论了流距离在贸易流量预测问题上的有效性,同时利用流距离衡量国家在全球贸易价值链。研究结果表明,贸易有效距离不仅仅包含地理信息,流距离能够表征贸易的“有效距离”。在此基础上,将全球交易系统嵌入到基于流距离的流量空间中,说明流距离在表征国际贸易整体结构方面的能力和力量,进一步还揭示了国际贸易体系中国家行为的演变。最后,本文分析和比较了不同类型的商品,方法和结果可以推广到所有贸易体系。 本文从复杂性科学与网络科学理论出发,提供了一种认识网络影响因素、量化贸易距离和网络嵌入的研究范式。贸易距离的分析给了一个统一的量化方法,从而加深了如何从数量和机制上研究国际贸易的理解。
外文摘要:
The deepening and high fusion of globalization and economic integration makes the theory and method of network science applicable to study the field of international trade, and forms an international trade network. From the perspective of systems theory and complexity science, we pay attention to the country's economic behavior, trade relations structure and its evolution law. The study of distance measurement of international trade network helps to explain international trade in quantity and mechanism, and thus provides theoretical basis and reference for trade policy formulation of relevant departments and organizations. This paper proposes a method for studying the distance measurement of international trade systems and applies it to quantify the status of the state in the global trade value chain. This paper studies the quantization of distance factors and trade effective distance from the perspectives of econometric regression analysis and network structure. In exploring the influence of international trade network distance: this paper discusses the formation motivation of international trade network based on randomized test algorithm and econometric regression analysis model, and then analyzes the trade distance under multiple dimensions. The results indicate that gross national product and geographic distance remain important factors influencing trade relations and trade flows, while other factors have less impact on regional and global trade. On this basis, this paper proposes that the spatial distance sensitivity coefficient further proves the“distance puzzle”in international trade, and finds that the influence of distance and economic scale on trade is different; under the analysis of introducing different products, The determinants have a significant additive effect on multi-product and multi-element linkage effects. In the quantifying the measurement of national trade distance: based on the characteristics of international trade, input-output theory and open systems, this paper proposes the index to identify international trade distance, that is flow distance, discusses the effective effect of flow distance on trade flow forecasting, and uses the flow distance to measure the country's global trade value chain. The results show that effective distance of trade is not geographic information, rather than flow distance. Base on it, the global trading system is embedded in the flow space by two special distances, which illustrates the ability and strength of the flow distance in characterizing the overall structure of international trade, and further reveals the evolution of state behavior in the international trading system. Finally, this paper analyzes and compares different types of commodities, and methods and results can be extended to all trading systems. Starting from the theory of complexity science and network science, this paper provides a study paradigm for understanding network influencing factors, quantifying trade distance and network embedding. The analysis of trade distances gives a unified quantitative approach, which deepens the understanding of how to study international trade in terms of quantity and mechanism.
参考文献总数:

 71    

作者简介:

 研究方向是复杂网络分析和网络嵌入,在学期间发表文章4篇。    

馆藏号:

 硕071101/19001    

开放日期:

 2020-07-09    

无标题文档

   建议浏览器: 谷歌 360请用极速模式,双核浏览器请用极速模式