目前，全球变暖已成为广泛关注的全球性环境问题。近50 年的全球气候变暖主要由人类活动大量排放温室气体的增温效应造成。其中，含氟温室气体的辐射强度贡献达全部温室气体10%以上，由于其长寿命、高GWP的特点，比其他温室气体对气候变暖的贡献更为显著。 在综述现有含氟温室气体环境影响评估方法基础上，以二氯氟乙烷（HCFC-141b）为例，参考IPCC优良做法指南中给出的自下而上的计算方法，初步开发出中国HCFC-141b排放清单编制方法并编制清单。结果表明：到2006年，中国HCFC-141b累计排放8.16万吨，折合GWP排放5818万吨CO2eq ，ODP排放0.90万吨。分析发现：中国2000-2006年间HCFC-141b产生的臭氧耗损潜能值（ODP）和全球变暖潜能值（GWP）均呈现二次函数上升趋势，且增长速度逐年增加。其中，清洗行业对全球变暖和臭氧层耗竭的环境影响更大。 利用灰色系统模型预测了不受控情形下中国HCFC-141b的排放量呈指数函数增长，到2030年累计排放30014.40万吨，折合GWP排放21400267万吨CO2eq ，ODP排放3001.44万吨。同时采用情景分析法，探讨了中国可能采取的逐步淘汰情景。综合考虑各种控制情景的环境影响和相应的资金要求、执法力度、替代技术及对国内企业的影响等因素，按照情景PAV30(de.)控制HCFC-141b更为稳妥，其截止到到2030年的累积排放量202.76万吨。相对不受控情形减排29811万吨，折合GWP减排21255243万吨CO2eq ，ODP减排2881万吨。

Nowadays, the problem of Global Warming has become a global environmental problem. In the recent 50 years, Global Warming has been caused by a large amount of greenhouse gas released by human activities, among which the reaction contribution of fluorinated greenhouse gas has reached 10% of all. The research summarized existing evaluating method of the environmental impact of fluorinated greenhouse gas and built the method to list emission inventory of HCFC-141b released in China. The result showed that until 2006, the accumulated HCFC-141b emission in China was 81.6 thousand tons, converted to 58.18 million tons CO2eq of GWP and 9 thousand tons of ODP. It was analyzed that ODP and GWP presented an ascending tendency of quadratic function during 2000-2006. The research utilized Gray System Model to forecast that under the non-action condition, HCFC-141b release in China would ascend in a tendency of index function and until 2030 its accumulated emission would reach 300.14 million tons. At the same time, the research utilized scenario analysis to discuss about some certain phase-out scenarios. The optimized scenario PAV30(de.) would decreased the emission of 298 million tons.