2013年下半年，习近平总书记分别提出“一带一路”倡议与提高国家治理能力与治理体系两大发展要求。六年多来，“一带一路”建设已进入“工笔画”务实推进阶段，受国际国内影响，沿线国家的政治与治理日趋复杂。本研究旨在对“一带一路”沿线国家在政治与治理方面的重点领域，包括政治稳定、腐败、政府治理能力等分析研究，并将其与经济增长相对比展开实证分析，呈现出各国在此方面的发展和演变，为“一带一路”和平之路、廉洁之路等建设提供依据。总体而言，治理对于国家发展意义重大，尤其对于普遍处在转型时期的“一带一路”国家而言更是如此。根据全球治理指标评估结果，“一带一路”国家总体治理水平较弱，明显具有政治动荡与腐败严重的特征，这与经济、制度等密切相关。结合“一带一路”国家多处在以政府为主导的治理体系当中，通过建立良好营商环境来推进市场发展，保障社会稳定。研究以此为框架，提出沿线国家治理对经济增长的影响，由于各国发展阶段的不同，而表现出区间效应，并进一步以政治稳定、腐败、政府效能为例进行实证模型推导检验。

关于政治稳定与经济增长的关系，本文根据沿线国家在1996-2015年间的数据，采用动态门槛面板模型检验政治稳定对经济增长的非线性影响，结果发现：（1）政治稳定对地区经济增长具有显著的促进作用；（2）政治稳定与经济增长之间具有非线性关系，存在不同经济区间下政治稳定差异化的经济影响；（3）政治稳定的经济效应具有三个门槛值，人均GDP低于2807美元为第一和第二类国家，其政治稳定促进经济增长效应不明显；高于2807美元的第三和第四门类国家，政治稳定性显著的刺激经济增长，越来越多的“一带一路”沿线国家进入到此门槛，说明政治稳定对“一带一路”沿线国家的经济增长的刺激效应正在日益显著。 

关于廉洁建设与经济增长的关系，本文采用沿线国家相关数据构建门槛面板模型检验，结果发现：（1）廉洁程度与经济增长之间具有非线性关系，存在不同经济区间下廉洁程度差异化的经济影响；（2）存在两个有效门槛值及其划分出的三个门槛区间：当处于人均GDP低于3867美元时，廉洁程度显著抑制经济增长；当经济发展超过第一门槛区间后，抑制效应减弱，变得不显著；而在高于7730美元的第三类国家，廉洁程度对经济增长开始释放显著促进作用；（3）沿线国家的廉洁度对经济增长影响具有两极化特征，同时，越来越多国家进入到第三门槛区间，说明廉洁度对“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长的刺激效应正在日益显著。

关于政府治理能力与经济增长的关系，本文基于门槛面板模型实证检验，结果发现：（1）治理能力与经济增长之间具有非线性关系，存在不同经济区间下治理能力差异化的经济影响；（2）治理能力的经济效应具有两个门槛值，人均GDP低于2292美元为第一和第二门槛区间，治理能力不同程度抑制经济增长；高于2292美元为第三门槛区间，治理能力显著促进经济增长，越来越多的国家进入到此门槛，说明治理能力日益促进沿线国家经济增长。可见，“一带一路”推进下的政府治理能力提升至关重要，是促进经济发展的重要因素，更是推动国家现代化进程的重要力量。

本报告基于对“一带一路”沿线国家政治与治理的总体分析，从政治稳定、廉洁建设、政府治理能力三方面分别进行实证检验，发现沿线国家治理与经济增长存在非线性关系，不同发展阶段治理的经济效应不同，在经济欠发达阶段，政治稳定、廉洁与政府治理能力都具有经济抑制性，随着经济水平提高，效应开始减弱并呈现相反效应。据此，我们认为现阶段大多数国家处于欠发达阶段，良好的政府主导能刺激经济增长，有利于提高本国经济水平，释放政治稳定、廉洁与政府治理能力的经济刺激效应，有助于高质量推进“一带一路”建设。

In the second half of 2013, general secretary Xi Jinping put forward the Belt and Road initiative and the two development requirements of improving national governance capacity and system. Over the past five years, the construction of the Belt and Road has entered into the pragmatic promotion stage of "meticulous brushwork", and the politics and governance of countries along the belt and road have become increasingly complicated due to the international and domestic influence. This study aims to analyze the politics and governance of countries along the the Belt and Road, and focuses on political stability, corruption, etc. Through empirical analysis of economic growth, it presents the development and evolution of countries in this respect, and provides a basis for the construction of the Belt and Road road of peace and road of integrity. Generally speaking, governance is of great significance for national development, especially for the Belt and Road countries generally in the transition period. According to the assessment results of global governance indicators, the Belt and Road countries have a weak overall governance level, which is obviously characterized by political instability and serious corruption, which is closely related to economy and system. In combination with the the Belt and Road countries, most of them are in the governance system dominated by the government, which promotes market development and guarantees social stability by establishing a sound business environment. Based on this framework, this paper proposes that the influence of governance of countries along the belt and road on economic growth shows a range effect due to the different development stages of countries, and further takes political stability, corruption, and government effectiveness as examples to deduce and test the empirical model.

As for the relationship between political stability and economic growth, based on the data of countries along the belt and road from 1996 to 2015, this paper USES the dynamic threshold panel model to test the non-linear impact of political stability on economic growth. (2) there is a non-linear relationship between political stability and economic growth, and there are differentiated economic influences of political stability under different economic intervals; (3) the economic effect of political stability has three thresholds. Countries with per capita GDP lower than $2,807 are the first and second category, and the effect of political stability on economic growth is not obvious. For the third and fourth category countries above $2,807, political stability significantly stimulates economic growth, and more and more countries along the the Belt and Road line enter this threshold, indicating that political stability has an increasingly significant stimulating effect on the economic growth of countries along the the Belt and Road line.

Regarding the relationship between honesty construction and economic growth, this paper USES relevant data of countries along the belt and road to construct the threshold panel model test, and the results show that :(1) there is a non-linear relationship between the degree of honesty and economic growth, and there is a differential economic impact of the degree of honesty under different economic intervals; (2) there are two effective thresholds and three threshold intervals: when the per capita GDP is lower than $3,867, the degree of honesty significantly inhibits economic growth; When the economic development exceeds the first threshold, the inhibitory effect weakens and becomes insignificant. In the third group of countries above $7,730, the degree of honesty began to significantly promote economic growth. (3) the influence of honesty in countries along the belt and road on economic growth is polarized. At the same time, more and more countries are entering the third threshold interval, indicating that honesty has an increasingly significant stimulating effect on the economic growth of countries along the the Belt and Road.

As for the relationship between government governance ability and economic growth, this paper is based on the empirical test of the threshold panel model, and the results show that :(1) there is a nonlinear relationship between governance capacity and economic growth, also a differential economic impact of governance capacity under different economic intervals; （2）there are two thresholds for the economic effect of governance capacity. Per capita GDP is lower than $2,292, which is the first and second threshold range, Governance capacity inhibits economic growth to different degrees. More than $2,292 is the third threshold, and governance capacity significantly promotes economic growth. More and more countries enter this threshold, which proved the governance capability increasingly promotes economic growth of countries along the Belt and Road. Visibly, It is of great significance to improve the government governance capacity by the Belt and Road Initiative, which is a vital factor to promote economic development, and an important force to promote the modernization process of the country.

This report based on the country's along the Belt and Road’s politics and governance of the overall analysis, from the political stability, clean government, empirically with government governance ability three aspects respectively, found that there is a nonlinear relationship governance and economic growth, along different development stage of the economic effect of governance, in the economic underdeveloped stage, the inhibitory has economic, political stability and honesty government governance ability has significant economic stimulus, as the economic level, the effect began to taper off and render the opposite effect. Therefore, we believe that most countries are in the underdeveloped stage at the present stage, and a good government-led economy can stimulate economic growth, which is conducive to improving their own economic level, releasing political stability, non-corrupt economic stimulus effect, and promoting the construction of the Belt and Road road of peace and road of integrity.