土地利用/覆被变化（Land Use and Cover Change. LUCC）是全球环境变化研究的重要组成部分。随着中国人口的持续增长和对土地资源的不断开发，人地矛盾日益凸现。如何对土地资源进行良好的开发利用，达到经济效益与生态环境的良好统一，是世界各国人民普遍关注的问题。本研究以GIS空间分析技术、统计学理论为核心支撑，以土地系统动态模拟（Simulation of Land System Dynamics, DLS）模型为模型框架，在利用历史数据对模型模拟结果进行验证的基础上，通过分析黄河三角洲历史土地利用类型变化状况和发展规划，构建了基准模式、湿地模式、建设模式和耕地模式四种不同的开发模式，选择了18项对于该地区土地利用类型变化有显著作用的驱动因子，通过非线性回归模型确立其影响系数，合理预测土地需求，模拟该地区的土地利用/覆被变化。研究主要结论如下：（1）黄河三角洲作为新生陆地，土地利用在20世纪90年代以前变化剧烈，90年代后走向稳定；区域内未利用地比例较高。由于黄河三角洲土地利用类型相对单一和集中，尤其是大面积耕地的存在，使得土地类型单一，邻域影响单一，变化方向较为单一，使得不同开发模式对于土地利用转换的影响均在10%以内。相对来说，建设模式引起的土地利用类型转换幅度是最大的，这是由于建设用地比较稳定的转换规则和对外部更为强劲的影响作用造成的；耕地模式和基准模式也对土地利用类型转换产生了较为大面积的影响；而湿地模式对于土地利用转换的影响最小。（2）由耕地开发所引起的净影响最大，其次是建设用地，湿地模式对土地利用转化的净影响最小。湿地模式最大的特征在于改善中部水环境，调节东营区生态质量；建设模式和耕地模式都将大大推动北部河口区经济发展，促进经济中心北移。湿地模式和建设模式都将促进东部林草地的发展，对于黄河口自然保护区有着积极的保护作用。相比于基准模式，建设模式更加强调经济发展，耕地模式更加凸现了耕地保护和经济增长，而合理地对黄河三角洲进行生态湿地建设，可以取得经济效益与生态效益的协调发展。

With the growth of Chinese population and the land resource exploitation, LUCC, as important part of research on globe environment change, attaches more and more attention. How to exploit the land resource to make it unite economy and environment is a problem faced by people all over the word.In this paper, GIS technology and Statistic method were used, to simulate the land use situation on four different scenarios: base scenario, bionomic scenario, construction scenario and agriculture scenario. DlS model is key frame of the research, and 18 drivers were considered to calculate the regression index by Non-line regression model.The main conclusions of this research are as follows:(1)As a new land, the land use of Yellow River Delta changes frequently before 2000, and there is much undeveloped area within it. Due to that there is so much cultivated land, the Yellow River Delta land use change method is monotonous. Construction scenario will effect its land use heavily. This is because, comparing with others, city grid can effect surroundings heavier. Agriculture scenario and base mode can also change much, and bionomic scenario effects least.(2) The pure effect brought by agriculture scenario is most, construction scenario following, and bionomic scenario effects least. The bionomic scenario will improve water environment of the middle region.While, the construction scenario and agriculture scenario will promote the economy development of the north region. After all, compared with base scenario, construction scenario is good for economy development, and agriculture scenario is good for both agriculture and economy development. However, bionomic scenario benefits both environment and economy.