目前的生态安全研究主要针对确定性因素，作为生态安全单要素评价之一的水生态安全评价也大致是以“压力-状态-响应（P-S-R）”框架为基础，评价结果只反映区域或流域的安全现状。但是在实际生产、生活中，人们关注的不仅仅是确定性因素的影响，还有不确定性因素的影响；不仅仅是水生态安全的现时状态，还有其未来发展趋势；不仅仅是水生态安全的总体状况，还有其空间差异。所以，水生态安全应是动态的，安全现状重要，演变趋势更为重要；水生态安全也是相对的，且具有区域性，不同时段、不同情况下，相对安全度也是不同的。本文围绕《济南市水生态安全评价与规划》项目，从安全科学的角度探讨了基于风险的水生态安全的含义、特点和内容，并进行了基于风险的济南水生态安全评价实例研究。主要研究结果如下：1． 水生态安全的主体为区域或流域内水与各环境要素和社会经济之间相互作用形成的以水为中心的复杂系统，包含系统类型和空间分布等生态结构、能流物流和运行过程等生态过程、资源生产和生态服务等生态功能。基于风险的水生态安全是一个关于安全主体的存在风险、安全状态、安全演变趋势的函数，包括风险引发传递和响应控制的相互交叉，也是一个时间上有演变、空间上有传递的过程。2． 空间上以各行政区为单元，以2005年为基准年，分析出两类影响济南市水生态安全的风险因子：植被覆盖率低、景观破碎严重、生活污染量大等常规因子和洪涝频发、地下水位下降、泉水停喷等“一票否决制”因子，从风险、状态和响应三个方面基于层次分析法建立济南市水生态安全评价指标体系，采用等级划分法和综合指数对比评价，将定量的综合指数法与定性的模糊综合评判法建立耦合，最终评价出：槐荫区状态最佳；历下区、天桥区、济南市、长清区状态一般；市中区、历城区接近，处于较不安全状态。3． 时间上，对2002--2010年济南市水生态安全的趋势进行分析，结果显示：十年间济南市水生态状态逐年改善，响应措施力度和效果也逐年显著，有效地控制了风险的引发和传递，水生态安全呈良性发展，具有安全的演变趋势，其中2005年和2007年在状态和响应措施上差距不是很大，但在面临的风险上有很大差距，说明前几年对水生态风险的控制有了显著的效果，同时也说明水生态安全的发展或演变不是瞬间演变的结果，具有显著的动态性和一定的滞后性。4． 分析出促进水生态安全演变的优势因子和影响安全演变的限制因子：各区有着不同的优势与限制因子。地下水位下降、地表水体污染尤其是生活污染成为全市的普遍问题，在小清河流经的槐荫区、天桥区和历城区体现最为明显。结合评价结果和实际情况提出济南市水生态安全的治理和管理对策。

At present ecological security assessment was about fixed indexes, water ecological security that is one of ecological security assessmen is based on “press-state-response”model.the result of assessment only represent the security status of stream.but People pay attention to not only the fixed indexes, but also the unfixed indexed; not only the state assessment of ecological security in practice, but also the future trend problem; not only the whole state, but also the spatial differences. The water ecosystem safety should be dynamic, safe present condition importance, the trend more important; The water ecosystem safety is oppositeand local, the opposite safety degree is different in different time and circumstance. This paper around《the Jinan city water ecosystem safety evaluation and programming 》 item, inquiried into water ecological security’s meaning, characteristics and contents from the angle of safe science ,and carry on water ecological security assessment based on risks Of Jinan.Main research result is as follows:(1) The corpus of the water ecosystem safety is the complicated system ,which is an interaction internal each water environment main factor and society economy of the district or the river valley.,including the system the ecosystem structure, ecosystem process and ecosystem function.the water ecological security is a function according to existence risk、safe appearance and trend ,including delivering and responding of the risk ,also is a time turning into,and the space delivering process.(2) This paper analysis two risk factors that affected the water ecological security of the Jinan in 2005. the normal regulations factors: the rate of plant to be overlay is low、living pollution has great capacity etc; “a ticket ve to make" factors: underground water levels descend、the spring stops to spray etc.This paper established the ecological security assessment index system of water ecosystem in Jinan, which is based on the AHP and “risk-state-response”index system.the water ecological security of huaiyin district was almost safty;lixia、changqing、tianqiao district and Jinan were normal; Shizhong and licheng district were secondary dangerous.(3) This paper analysis the trend of Jinan water ecological security from2002 to 2010 , the result manifests: water ecosystem appearance improves year by year;the measures control the risk to cause and deliver availably;the water ecosystem safety presents the positive development and the safety trend.when the differences of appearances and measures between 2005 and 2007 is Minuteness, risks that water ecological system faced is Obvious, which Certificate the development of the water ecosystem safety have Obvious dynamic and certain postpone.(4) This paper assessments the restriction factor that influence water ecosystem safety worsen and the advantage factor that promotes it:Each area has the different factor.The underground water level descendion、the pollution of surface water , especially the living pollution, become widespread problems of the whole city, huaiyin、tianqiao and licheng District which the XIAOQING river flows through are obvious.Accoding to the evaluation result this paper puts forward managements to water ecological security of Jinan.