为有效应对经济快速发展中的气候变化和大气污染问题，生物质作为最具潜力的可再生能源逐步成为我国能源发展重点领域，其中生物质发电是我国实现低碳清洁能源转型和废弃物再利用的重要技术。近年来，农林生物质直燃发电和生活垃圾焚烧发电在快速扩张过程中造成的有害大气污染物排放受到高度关注。因此，了解在环保政策和排放标准不断加严情况下中国生物质电厂有害大气污染物排放的历史变化与空间分布特征，对于制定行业污染减排政策和改善区域大气环境具有重要意义。

本研究以中国农林生物质直燃电厂和城镇生活垃圾焚烧电厂为研究对象，通过调查和收集历年活动水平与机组信息，结合多方法估算的本地化排放因子，采用“自下而上”的排放因子法，建立了2006-2017年中国生物质电厂常规大气污染物（PM、NO_x、SO₂、PM₁₀、PM_2.5）和痕量元素（As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Pb等）历史排放清单。进而，根据全国270家农林生物质直燃电厂和337座生活垃圾焚烧发电厂机组活动水平信息，构建了2017年中国生物质电厂精细化点源排放清单，并采用蒙特卡洛模拟法定量分析了排放清单的不确定性，为区域环境质量模拟及政府决策等提供可靠依据。在此基础上，结合未来生物质电厂活动水平和污染控制措施变化趋势，利用情景分析法对2025和2035年中国生物质电厂大气污染物排放情况进行预测。本论文的主要研究结果和结论如下：

（1）2006-2017年中国农林生物质直燃电厂常规大气污染物排放量初期逐年上升，在2014年或2015年达到顶峰后有所下降或趋平，该时间点与2014年新《火电厂大气污染物排放标准》（GB 13223-2011）的实施一致。排放限值的加严促进了脱硝脱硫设备的应用和污染控制水平的提高。相比于生物质燃料量增幅19%，2017年NO_x和PM排放量较上年仅增长了1.9%和0.7%，SO₂排放量较上年下降了10.4%。

（2）2017年，中国农林生物质直燃电厂NO_x、SO₂、PM、PM₁₀和PM_2.5排放量分别约为29516.0 t、14192.1 t、4100.7 t、2353.9 t和1630.6 t，而痕量元素As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Pb和Zn排放量分别约为3057.2 kg、1622.8 kg、8285.8 kg、54443.4 kg、132.9 kg、66325.8 kg和175587.9 kg。山东、黑龙江和安徽污染物排放量大，主要是这些地区秸秆资源丰富且装机容量大所致；广西和广东分别以蔗渣和林木质为主要燃料，相应的SO₂和PM排放较低；安徽、江苏和湖南As和Cd排放相对突出，与当地土壤重金属污染较重，燃烧的水稻秸秆富集重金属密切相关。

（3）2006-2017年中国城镇生活垃圾焚烧电厂常规大气污染物排放量初期逐年上升，2014年后NO_x和PM排放量的增长幅度逐年降低、SO₂排放量降低，2016年后排放量基本趋平。历史排放量减缓的时间点，与2014年新建机组和2016年现有机组开始实施新《生活垃圾焚烧污染控制标准》（GB18485-2014）一致。排放限值的加严促进了烟气净化设备的升级和污染控制水平的提高。相比于垃圾焚烧量增幅9%，2017年NO_x和PM排放量较上年仅增加1.2%和3.5%，SO₂排放量甚至较上年降低14.0%。

（4）2017年，中国城镇生活垃圾焚烧发电厂PM、SO₂、NO_x、CO、HCl、PM₁₀和 PM_2.5排放量分别约为4399.06 t、7987.56 t、50715.81 t、13025.84 t、1942.53 t、2169.76 t和991.47 t，痕量元素Hg、Cd、Tl、Sb、As、Pb、Cr、Co、Cu、Mn、Ni和PCDD/Fs排放量分别约为2154.12 kg、1168.16 kg、13.08 kg、215.82 kg、862.27 kg、9915.99 kg、3573.84 kg、408.8 kg、4804.8 kg、5901.47 kg、3328.73 kg和18.57 g。华东地区污染物排放占比超过50%，主要是由于垃圾焚烧电厂集中在东部沿海发达地区，特别是江苏、浙江和山东。北京和上海垃圾焚烧厂分别采用高效SCR脱硝和湿法脱酸技术，严格管控垃圾焚烧NO_x和SO₂排放，相较全国平均水平减排52%和80%。

（5）比较2017年两类电厂的大气污染物排放情况发现，颗粒物排放量基本相当，垃圾焚烧电厂的NO_x和Hg排放量更高，而农林生物质电厂SO₂和除汞以外的痕量元素排放量更高。其中，垃圾焚烧电厂部分污染物的排放量更低，说明高效烟气净化技术的安装应用，使得我国垃圾焚烧电厂污染物排放控制较好，甚至低于农林生物质电厂水平。

（6）采用蒙特卡洛法定量分析2017年生物质电厂排放量的不确定性，结果显示农林生物质直燃电厂常规大气污染物的不确定性较低为-40%~50%，痕量元素不确定性较高在-70%-135%之间，这主要是因为后者缺乏比较详细的实测数据所致；生活垃圾焚烧电厂清单估算均采用实测数据，常规大气污染物排放量的不确定性范围基本为-50%~70%，痕量元素不确定性范围较大为-70%~130%左右，主要是由于垃圾成分及其重金属含量不稳定且差异较大，导致后者不确定性显著增加。

（7）情景分析结果表明，对于农林生物质直燃电厂，随着高效SNCR+FF+LID或（SNCR+SCR）+FF+WFGD组合工艺的广泛应用，到2035年大多数污染物排放量相较2025年呈现持平或略微降低趋势。BACT和HECT情景的常规大气污染物排放都将更稳定地达到超低排放水平，这归功于高效污染控制措施应用比例的增加。对于生活垃圾焚烧电厂，在现有较高的污染控制水平基础上，增加SCR或干法/湿法脱酸等措施组成脱硝脱硫组合工艺可进一步减少污染物排放。尽管减排幅度相对较小，但仍对超低排放工作的推进和污染物的减排有重要的意义。

With the global warming and air pollution caused by the extensive use of fossil energy, biomass has gradually become the key renewable energy for energy development, and biomass power generation has become an important technology to promote the low-carbon energy transition and waste reuse in China. In recent years, emissions of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) caused by the rapid biomass industrialization have attracted increasing attention. Therefore, it is of great significance to understand the HAPs emission from biomass power plants in China, so as to help the formulation of emission reduction policies and improvement of regional atmospheric environment.

Based on the activity levels and localized emission factors, a multiple-year comprehensive emission inventory including conventional air pollutants (PM, SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, PM_2.5), and trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, etc.) has been established by using bottom-up method for the period of 2006–2017. According to the information of 270 agricultural and forestry biomass direct-fired power plants and 337 MSW incineration power plants in China, an integrated emission inventory with high temporal resolution of Chinese biomass power plants in 2017 is established, and the uncertainty of the emission inventory is quantified by Monte Carlo method. Besides, the future emissions in 2025 and 2035 under the ultralow emission policy are predicted with scenario analysis.

From 2006 to 2017, the HAPs emissions from agricultural and forestry biomass direct-fired power plants in China increased year by year in the initial stage, and then decreased after the peak in 2014 or 2015, which was consistent with the implementation of the new emission standard of air pollutants for thermal power plants (GB 13223-2011). The new emission standard promotes the APCDs application and the improvement of pollution control level. Compared with the growth rate of biomass fuel by 19%, NO_x and PM emissions in 2017 only increased by 1.9% and 0.7%, and SO₂ emissions decreased by 10.4%.

In 2017, the emissions of NO_x, SO₂, PM, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 from agricultural and forestry biomass direct-fired power plants in China were 29516.0 t, 14192.1 t, 4100.7 t, 2353.9 t and 1630.6 t respectively, while the emissions of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn were 3057.2 kg, 1622.8 kg, 8285.8 kg, 54443.4 kg, 132.9 kg, 66325.8 kg and 175587.9 kg respectively. Shandong, Heilongjiang and Anhui province witnessed a large amount of HAPs emissions, due to the rich straw resources and large installed capacity; Guangxi and Guangdong using bagasse and wood respectively, showed low SO₂ and PM emissions; the emission of As and Cd in Anhui, Jiangsu and Hunan province was relatively prominent, mainly caused by burning rice straw with heavy metals.

From 2006 to 2017, the HAPs emissions from MSW incineration power plants in China increased year by year in the initial stage, and the growth of NO_x and PM emissions decreased after 2014, then the emission basically leveled off after 2016. The time point of historical emission reduction is the same as that of new standard for pollution control on the municipal solid waste incineration (GB18485-2014) for new units in 2014 and for existing units in 2016. The new standard promotes the upgrading of APCDs and the improvement of pollution control level. Compared with the increase of 9% in waste incineration, NO_x and PM emissions in 2017 only increased by 1.2% and 3.5%, and SO₂ emissions decreased by 14.0%.

In 2017, the emissions of PM, SO₂, NO_x, CO, HCl, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 from Chinse MSW incineration power plants were 4399.06 t, 7987.56 t, 50715.81 t, 13025.84 t, 1942.53 t, 2169.76 t and 991.47 t respectively, and the emissions of Hg, Cd, Tl, Sb, As, Pb, Cr, Co, Cu, Mn, Ni and PCDD/Fs were 2154.12 kg, 1168.16 kg, 13.08 kg, 215.82 kg, 862.27 kg, 9915.99 kg, 3573.84 kg, 408.8 kg, 4804.8 kg, 5901.47 kg, 3328.73 kg and 18.57 g. The HAPs emissions are concentrated in East China, accounting for more than 50%, especially in coastal developed areas, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Guangdong. In addition, Beijing and Shanghai show the highest levels of NO_x and acid gas emission control in China.

Compared with the emissions of the two types of power plants in 2017, the PM emissions are basically comparable, the emissions of NO_x and Hg are higher in waste incineration power plants, while the emissions of SO₂ and TEs are higher in agricultural biomass direct-fired power plants. The lower emissions for some pollutants in MSW incineration power plants indicate that well pollution controlled by efficient APCDs, even lower than that of agricultural biomass power plants.