环印度洋地区凭借独特的地理位置、丰富的能源资源和广阔的市场，逐渐发展成为全球经济交往中具有巨大潜在竞争力的经济集团。对中国而言，印度洋是中国参与国际贸易的重要交通通道和能源通道，且环印度洋地区集结了众多中国在国际政治舞台上的主要支持者。随着“一带一路”倡议的不断推进，中国与环印度洋地区国家的经贸合作与文化交流日益加深。然而，环印度洋地区由于广阔的地理空间和复杂的政治社会环境，导致环印度洋地区内的各个国家在政治、经济、社会、文化等方面面临的巨大的多样性和差异性，对中国在该地区的商贸往来与直接投资带了较大的不确定性和风险。因此，加强对环印度洋地区国家风险的科学评估，厘清该地区的风险变化和风险水平及其对中国对外直接投资的影响，已经成为中国开拓对外直接投资市场新高地和保障国家经济安全的重大需求。

本文基于2005-2019年环印度洋地区49个国家的相关数据，从政治、经济、社会和文化4个维度选取22个指标构建环印度洋地区国家风险评价指标体系，利用动态时间规整和地图可视化探究环印度洋地区5个子区域2005-2019年综合风险及各维度风险的时空演变特征和趋势；利用投资引力模型，通过泊松伪极大似然估计方法(PPML)，分别进行全样本和分类样本的回归，探讨各维度国家风险对中国在环印度洋地区的直接投资的影响效应。主要得出以下结论：

（1）环印度洋地区国家普遍以中风险和较高综合风险为主。2005-2019年环印度洋地区49个国家综合风险的平均得分结果显示，地区内多数国家处于中风险和较高风险，且较高风险及以上的国家数量之和显著大于较低风险及以下的国家，区域内综合风险指数整体较高。

（2）环印度洋地区国家综合风险的空间格局呈现“区域集聚性”特点。2005-2019年间，五大子区域之间的综合风险得分呈现明显的等级差异；巴基斯坦-阿富汗-伊拉克-伊朗和埃及-苏丹-厄立特里亚-索马里是区域内两大综合风险高值集聚区，综合风险低值区域主要分布在以新加坡为核心的东南亚和波斯湾沿岸的阿拉伯国家。

（3）环印度洋地区国家综合风险总体呈现下降趋势，区域整体综合风险形势有所好转。具体来说，本身处于高风险等级国家的综合风险下降趋势较为明显，处于中风险及以上水平的国家多保持平稳波动或略微有所下降，区域整体综合风险形势有所好转。

（4）中国对环印度洋地区的投资总体偏向政治、经济风险低的国家，但也存在一定程度的“风险偏好”。总体而言，东道国的政治风险和经济风险与中国的直接投资具有显著的负效应，即中国的直接投资总体上更倾向于政治稳定、经济自由度高的地区或国家；而在南亚、撒哈拉以南非洲等经济发展水平较低的国家或地区中，政治风险和经济风险具有显著的正向影响，呈现出一定程度的“风险投资”特点。这一方面与中国对非洲国家/地区投资的支持政策有关，另一方面也是因为这些国家发展水平较低，未来发展潜力较大，且不完善的政策反而增加了企业获利及规避冗余赋税的可能性，企业在此基础上选择“高风险-高回报”的投资政策。

（5）社会风险对投资的影响呈现较为明显的地区差异。在经济较为发达的国家中，投资者更青睐产权制度较完善、城市化水平较低的投资环境；而在经济较不发达的国家中，投资者更倾向城市化水平较高的投资环境，以便获得更好的产业基础、更全面的配套设施和素质更高的劳动力，而产权保护风险则不显著。

The Indian Ocean Region (IOR), with its superior geographical location, abundant energy resources and broad markets, is gradually developing into an economic group with great potential competitiveness in global economic interactions. For China, the IOR is an important transportation and energy channel for China's participation in international trade, and the IOR has gathered many of China's major supporters in the international political stage. As the "One Belt, One Road" initiative continues to advance, economic and trade cooperation and exchanges between China and the IOR countries are deepening. However, the vast geographical space and complex political and social environment of the IOR, resulting in the great diversity and differences in the political, economic, social and cultural aspects of the countries in the IOR, which have brought greater uncertainties and risks to China's trade and direct investment in the region. Therefore, strengthening the scientific assessment of country risks in the IOR, clarifying the risk changes and levels in the region and its impact on China's OFDI has become a major need for China to develop a new high ground in the OFDI market and safeguard national economic security.

Based on the data of 49 countries in the IOR from 2005-2019, this study selects 22 indicators from four dimensions: political, economic, social and cultural to construct a country risk evaluation index system in the IOR, and uses DTW and map visualization to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and trends of comprehensive risk and each dimension of risk in the five sub-regions of the IOR from 2005-2019; using the investment gravity model and the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) to conduct the regressions of full and categorical samples, thus, to explore the effects and mechanisms of each dimension of country risk on Chinese direct investment in the IOR. The main findings are as follows.

(1) The countries in the IOR are dominated by medium and higher comprehensive risks. According to the average scores of comprehensive risks of 49 countries in the IOR from 2005 to 2019, most countries in the region are at medium and higher risks, and the sum of the number of countries at higher risks and above is significantly greater than that of countries at lower risks and below, and the overall comprehensive risk in the region is higher.

(2) The spatial pattern of comprehensive risk in the IOR is characterized by "regional agglomeration". The comprehensive risk scores have significant rank differences among the five sub-regions during 2005-2019. Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iraq-Iran and Egypt-Sudan-Eritrea-Somalia are the two major areas of high comprehensive risk concentration, while the low comprehensive risk areas are mainly located in Southeast Asia with Singapore as the core and the Arab countries along the Persian Gulf.

(3) The overall comprehensive risk of countries in the IOR shows a downward trend. Specifically, the comprehensive risk of the countries in the high-risk level is decreasing, and the countries in the medium-risk level and above mostly maintain stable fluctuation or slightly decrease, and its regional situation has improved.

 (4) Chinese investment in the IOR generally favors countries with lower political and economic risks, but there is also a certain degree of "risk preference". In general, the political risk and economic risk variables show a significant negative correlation, i.e., investment generally prefers regions or countries with high political stability and economic freedom, while in countries/regions with lower levels of economic development, such as South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, political risk and economic risk mostly show a positive correlation, showing a certain degree of "risky investment ". On the one hand, this is related to China's support policy for investment in African countries/regions, and on the other hand, it is also because these countries have a lower level of development and a higher potential for future development, and the imperfect policy increases the possibility of profit and avoidance of redundant taxes for enterprises, which choose the "high-risk-high-return" investment policy on this basis.

(5) The impact of social risks on investment shows more obvious regional differences. In more developed countries, enterprises prefer investment environments with better property rights systems and lower levels of urbanization; while in less developed countries, enterprises prefer investment environments with higher levels of urbanization in order to obtain better industrial bases, as well as more comprehensive supporting facilities and higher quality workers, while the risk of property rights protection is not significant.