学前儿童科学教育关乎新一代公民的科学素养，幼儿早期科学学习影响其科学学业成就。由于受城乡二元经济结构的限制，我国农村地区幼儿科学学习现状不容乐观。因此，研究农村地区幼儿科学学业成就的影响因素具有重要意义。本研究基于机会-倾向模型理论，从幼儿早期科学学习中个体、教师、班级等层面整合影响科学学业成就的前因素、机会因素、倾向因素，通过建立多层线性模型（HLM）探究其对幼儿科学学业成就的影响机制，为幼儿科学学习和幼儿科学教育提供有针对性的建议。
      本研究以青海省西宁市大通县12所幼儿园为样本园，随机抽取中、大班共31个班级，在每班选择一名教师并随机抽取6-8名幼儿作为研究对象，最终确定了31名教师，212名幼儿进行测查。在第一次测查中，使用ECERS量表的活动-科学分量表评估班级科学探究环境、收集教师科学活动视频并使用《幼儿科学探究活动观察评价表（PSOR）》对幼儿教师的科学教学行为进行评价，使用《教师科学教学问卷》评估教师科学教学活动频率，使用《幼儿教师科学态度和信念》问卷评估教师科学教学态度；在幼儿评估方面主要采用一对一测查的形式，使用《科学学习评估（SLA）》(科学探究过程部分)测查幼儿已有知识、使用《幼儿科学动机问卷》测查幼儿科学动机，使用四个经典任务（工作记忆、数字倒背任务、昼夜任务、手部游戏）测查幼儿执行功能，并收集家长问卷；于学期末进行第二次数据收集，修订《科学学习评估（SLA）》(科学探究过程部分)问卷，测查学期末幼儿科学学业成就。
      研究发现：
1.前因素中，性别与幼儿科学学业成就不存在显著相关关系。
2.倾向因素中，已有知识、科学动机与幼儿科学学业成就呈显著正相关，执行功能与幼儿科学学业成就之间相关不显著。
3.机会因素中，班级科学探究环境、教师科学活动频率、科学教学行为及科学教学态度均不能直接预测幼儿科学学业成就。
4.科学动机在性别与幼儿科学学业成就的关系中起完全中介作用。
5.科学动机在科学探究环境、教师科学教学行为与幼儿科学学业成就的关系中起完全中介作用。
      基于以上结论，本研究提出以下建议：1.教育者应充分利用教育契机，在一日生活渗透科学教育；2.关注幼儿科学自我效能感，激发科学动机；3.注重科学探究环境创设，鼓励幼儿科学探究；4.加快教师专业发展，提升教师科学教学能力。

Preschool science education is related to the scientific literacy of the new generation of citizens, and early scientific learning of young children affects their scientific academic achievements. Due to the restriction of the dual economic structure of urban and rural areas, the current situation of children's science learning in rural areas of our country is not optimistic. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the influencing factors of children's scientific academic achievement in rural areas. This research is based on the opportunity- propensity model, integrating antecedent factors, opportunity factors, and propensity factors that affect children’s scientific academic achievement from the level of children, teachers, and classes. Through the establishment of a hierarchical linear mod (HLM) to explore its influence mechanism on children's scientific academic achievement, in order to provide targeted suggestions for children's science learning and science education.
In this study, 12 kindergartens in Datong County, Xining City, Qinghai Province were used as sample kindergartens, and two large classes and two middle classes were selected from each kindergarten. One teacher was selected from each class and six to eight children were randomly selected as the research objects. Finally, 31 teachers and 212 children were selected as the research objects. In the first test, the ECERS scale -Science subscale was used to evaluate the scientific inquiry environment of the class. Collectting teachers' scientific activity videos and use the "Preschool Scientific Inquiry Activity Observation and Evaluation Form (PSOR)" developed by the project team to evaluate the scientific teaching behavior of kindergarten teachers. Use the "Teacher Science Teaching Questionnaire" to assess the frequency of teachers' science teaching activities, and use the "Kindergarten Teachers' Scientific Attitudes and Beliefs" questionnaire to assess teachers' scientific attitudes and beliefs. In the aspect of early childhood assessment, one-to-one testing is mainly adopted. The "Science Learning Assessment (SLA)" is used to test children's existing knowledge, the "Science Motivation Questionnaire" is used to test children's scientific motivation, and four classic tasks (Work Memory, Backward Digit Span , Day and Night , Hand Game) test executive functions, and collect parent questionnaires; conduct a second data collection at the end of the semester, revise the "Science Learning Assessment (SLA)" questionnaire, and test early childhood science at the end of the semester academic achievement.
The study found that:
1. Among the antecedent factors, there is no significant correlation between gender and children's scientific academic achievement.
2. Among the propensity factors, there is a significant correlation between the existing knowledge, scientific motivation and children's scientific academic achievement, and executive function is not correlated with children's scientific academic achievement.
3. Among the opportunity factors, the scientific inquiry environment, the frequency of scientific activities, teachers' scientific teaching behaviors and teachers' scientific attitudes cannot predict children's scientific academic achievements.
4. Scientific motivation plays a completely mediating role in the relationship between gender and children's scientific academic achievement.
5. Scientific motivation plays a completely mediating role in the relationship between the scientific inquiry environment, teachers' scientific teaching behavior and children's scientific academic achievement.
    Based on the above conclusions, this research puts forward several suggestions:
1. Educators should make full use of educational opportunities to penetrate science education in one day's life; 2. Pay attention to children's scientific self-efficacy and stimulate scientific motivation; 3. Pay attention to the creation of scientific inquiry environment and encourage children to scientific inquiry; 4. Speed up the professional development of teachers and enhance teachers' scientific teaching ability.