“二十四节气”是古代人民根据地球在黄道上的位置变化制定的反映气候和物候的工具，它将气候条件和农业生产条件进行了有机结合，指导和服务生产生活。由于节气可以反映农时，指导人们的农事活动，得到了广泛的流传和应用。在其推广的过程中并不是生搬硬套而是结合当地的气候特点和生产经验形成农谚、民谣。本研究通过气象观测数据验证了具有争议性、广泛流传的气候预测农谚，探究了农谚在现代气候背景下的应用价值，为农谚的活态传承提供依据。通过中国大陆31个代表性省会城市1991-2020年逐日气温和降水数据验证了二十四节气农谚在现代气候背景下的合理性。结果表明：（1）大部分地区符合“大暑正伏天”，而“立秋处暑正当暑”在所选站点均不合理。其中，大多数站点在大暑达到全年最热的概率最高；少数站点在小暑达到最热的概率最高，主要分布在中国南方地区；仅贵阳站在立秋达到最热的概率最高。（2）大部分地区符合“小寒不如大寒寒”，但有45%的站点（14个站点）小寒达到最冷的概率≥50%，主要分布在我国东北、西北地区以及西南海拔较高地区。（3）大多数地区符合“清明时节雨纷纷”现象，且该谚语在南方更适用。（4）“处暑落了雨，秋季雨水多”、“霜降有雨，开春雨水多；霜降无雨,冬春旱”、“立秋无雨秋干热，立秋有雨秋落落”三条谚语在我国大部分地区不合理。

The "24 Solar Terms" are tools devised by ancient people based on the changes in the Earth's position along the ecliptic. These terms reflect climatic and phenological changes and organically combine climatic conditions with agricultural production conditions to guide and serve production and daily life. Since these solar terms can reflect agricultural timing and guide people's farming activities, they have been widely disseminated and applied. In their spread, they were not rigidly applied but adapted to local climatic characteristics and production experiences, forming agricultural proverbs and folk songs. This study verifies the widely circulated and controversial climate-predicting agricultural proverbs using meteorological observation data and explores the application value of these proverbs in the context of modern climate, providing a basis for the living inheritance of agricultural proverbs.
By using daily temperature and precipitation data from 1991 to 2020 for 31 representative provincial capital cities across mainland China, the study validated the reasonableness of the 24 Solar Terms proverbs in the context of modern climate. The results indicate that: (1) Most regions conform to the saying "Great Heat is the hottest period," while "Start of Autumn and End of Heat are the hottest" is unreasonable for the selected sites. At most stations, the probability of reaching the hottest temperature during Great Heat is highest; a few stations reach the hottest temperature during Lesser Heat, primarily located in southern China; only Guiyang reaches the hottest temperature during the Start of Autumn. (2) Most regions conform to "Lesser Cold is not as cold as Greater Cold," but at 45% of the stations (14 stations), the probability of Lesser Cold being the coldest is ≥50%, mainly distributed in northeastern, northwestern China, and higher altitude areas in the southwest. (3) Most regions conform to the phenomenon "During Qingming, it often rains," and this proverb is more applicable in the south. (4) The proverbs "If it rains during the End of Heat, there will be more rain in autumn," "If it rains during Frost Descent, there will be more rain in early spring; if it doesn't rain during Frost Descent, there will be drought in winter and spring," and "If it doesn't rain at the Start of Autumn, autumn will be dry and hot; if it rains at the Start of Autumn, autumn will be cool" are unreasonable for most regions in China.