中文题名: | 叙利亚的经济发展:从内战造成的产业发展困境着眼 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | 英文 |
学科代码: | 125200 |
学科专业: | |
学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 公共管理硕士 |
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学位年度: | 2021 |
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第一导师姓名: | |
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提交日期: | 2021-06-30 |
答辩日期: | 2021-05-28 |
外文题名: | Economic Development in Syria: From the Perspective of Industries Development Dilemma Caused by the Civil War |
中文关键词: | |
外文关键词: | Economic development ; conflict economy ; food security ; petroleum industry ; Syria |
中文摘要: |
本文对冲突前和冲突期间的经济状况进行了研究,旨在确定冲突的核心难点,并为进一步的经济增长路径找到解决之道。这一分析意义重大,因为外界和学者认为,重建叙利亚经济的唯一关键是分析该国的经济部门。与此同时,没有什么比在战争时期检查统计数据更难以控制、更不确定的了。
本研究对叙利亚经济发展、农业和石油部门发展、其他部门发展、面临的主要问题和可能的解决方案进行了综合分析。系统介绍了2020年叙利亚局势的最新动态和涉及叙利亚问题的最新变化。
本研究认为,2019年是叙利亚重建的开始。首先,叙利亚战场局势总体稳定。叙利亚政府军巩固了战场成果,稳定了战场局势。叙利亚反对派力量已被压缩在叙利亚北部伊德利卜省周边地区,很难撼动叙利亚政府军控制的地区。
其次,由于战争,石油工业的角色发生了变化。在叙利亚发现石油后,对叙利亚人民来说,石油更多的是一种负担,而不是经济增长的源泉。战斗方进行的石油贸易和走私对这一部门的恶化产生了重大影响。在东部和东北部,随着伊斯兰国(Islamic State)和库尔德武装(Kurdish Force)等组织形成独立的经济领域,冲突经济已经兴起。这两家公司的主要收入来源都是石油和天然气收入。石油部门不再是支撑叙利亚经济的古老国家经济。相反,农业部门及其巨大的直接和间接货币效应已远非其主要价值。
最后,叙利亚经济面临的挑战复杂而难以应对。一方面,未来发生冲突的风险依然存在,这无疑会使叙利亚经济恶化。另一方面,西方国家的制裁给经济复苏带来了沉重的负担。在研究的最后列出了可能的解决方案。 |
外文摘要: |
This paper addresses the economic situation before and during the conflict time aiming for determining the core difficulties in this conflict as well as finding the solutions for further economic growth pathways. The analysis is significant, because the outside world and scholars believe that the only key for reconstructing Syrian economy is analyzing the country’s economic sectors. At the same time, there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more uncertain to conduct, than to examine the statistical data at the time of the war.
This study is composed of a general analysis on Syria economic development, development of agriculture and petroleum sectors, the development of other sectors, major problem it faces and possible solutions. It systematically introduces the latest developments in Syria in 2020 and the latest changes in issues related to the Syrian issue.
This study believes that 2019 is the beginning of Syria's reconstruction. First of all, the situation in the Syrian battlefield is generally stable. The Syrian government forces consolidated the battlefield results and stabilized the battlefield situation. Syrian opposition forces have been compressed in the surrounding area of Idlib province in northern Syria, and it is difficult to shake the area controlled by the Syrian government forces.
Second, the role of petroleum industry has changed due to the war. After the discovery of oil in Syria, it has become more of a burden to the Syrian people than a source of economic growth. The oil trade and smuggling carried out by fighting party had the major impact on the deteriorating of this sector. In the east and northeast, a conflict economy has arisen, with groups like the Islamic State and the Kurdish Force forming independent economic spheres. Both rely on oil and gas revenues as one of their primary sources of revenue. Oil sector is no longer the ancient national economy-supportive for Syrian economy. Instead, the agriculture sector and its big direct and indirect monetary effect became far from its primary value.
Finally, the challenges Syrian economy is facing are complicated and hard to deal with. On one hand, the risk of future conflicts still exists, which will undoubtedly deteriorate the Syrian economy by all means. On the other hand, the sanctions from western countries put lots of burden on the economy recovery. Possible solutions are listed at the end of the study. |
参考文献总数: | 0 |
馆藏地: | 总馆B301 |
馆藏号: | 硕125100/21022Z |
开放日期: | 2022-06-30 |