本文采用CEPII-BACI 数据库2001—2010年中国入世以后的HS6 分位出口贸易数据，运用生存分析方法探讨中国在加入世贸组织以后的出口贸易持续时间及其影响因素。统计结果显示，其中37.80%的出口持续时间段仅持续了1年，约有50%的出口贸易持续时间小于5年，不过仍有20%以上的贸易持续时间段在9年以上。文章进一步采用Cox生存分析模型考察了出口贸易持续时间的决定因素，结果显示，汇率波动、初始贸易额等因素都对中国出口贸易关系持续时间产生了显著影响。因此，在出口贸易政策调整过程中必须重视出口持续时间。

In this paper, HS6 quintile for 2001-2010 China export trade data, acquired from CEPII-BACI database, is processed with survival analysis methods to find out the duration and the influencing factors of China's export trade. Statistics show that 37.80% of exports duration lasted only one year, 50% more exports duration of less than five years, but there is still more than 20% of trade whose duration last nine years or more. The paper further investigated the determinants of export duration using Cox survival analysis model, which shows exchange rate fluctuations, and the initial trade amount had a significant impact on China export trade relations duration. Thus, in the export trade policy adjustment process, attention must paid to the export duration.