随着我国经济发展水平和医疗卫生水平的不断提高，我国人口的平均寿命也随之不断提高，带来的人口老龄化问题和养老金支付压力日益突出，因而延迟退休政策近年来一直呼之欲出。2020年10月底党中央发布文件宣布该政策即将落地执行。那么延迟退休会对老年人造成什么样的影响，这种影响的机制是怎样的？

本文基于“中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查”数据，采用定性与定量相结合的研究方法，拟探索老年人主观幸福度的主要影响因素。由于因变量“主观幸福度”为累计追踪调查三次的有序多分类变量，故本文采用描述性统计分析，针对单次调查的有序logit回归模型以及联合使用三次追踪调查数据的广义估计方程三种方法进行研究。本文重点讨论“退休类型”（提前退休、按时退休、延迟退休）对于老年人主观幸福度的影响，同时兼顾性别、是否是干部、退休前单位、受教育程度、婚姻状况、健康状况、经济状况等因素的影响。

结果表明，延迟退休和按时退休相对于提前退休，对老年人主观幸福度有一定的提高，表现为随着退休类别的逐渐推后，老人的主观幸福度更倾向于较高的水平。多个变量都参与了退休类别的这种影响。女性老人相对于男性老人，更倾向获得较高的主观幸福度；退休前单位，党政事业单位相对于国有企业对老年人主观幸福度有显著正向影响；随着受教育程度的提高，对老人的主观幸福度的正向影响先上升再下降，表现出了边际收益递减的变化；无配偶相对于有配偶，对老人的主观幸福度有显著负面影响；健康状况和经济状况的逐渐改善，会显著提高老年人的主观幸福度。2006年相对于2000年，老人的主观幸福度趋向于较低水平。

本文从一定程度上佐证了即将推行的延迟退休政策的合理性和必要性，延迟退休政策在缓解我国人口老龄化和养老金支付压力的同时，未来对进入延迟退休的人们的主观幸福度会有潜在的提升，有利于维护社会稳定和提高人民福祉。另外将广义估计方程方法引入老年学，从生命历程视角的研究角度使得本文结论具有纵向深度的特点，不仅仅局限于以往的单独截面数据分析，从长远看待对老年人的影响，最后提出了相关的政策建议，完善各种社会保障制度，对不同的老年人群提供精准的支持，建设推广各种老年活动场所，为退休老人们创造退而不休的氛围和良好便利的社交场所，从各方面提高老年群体的主观幸福度，创建美好的退休生活。

With the continuous improvement of Chinese economic development level and medical and health care level, the average life expectancy of Chinese population is also increasing. The problem of population aging and the pressure of pension payment are becoming increasingly prominent. Therefore, the policy of delaying retirement has been ready to come out in recent years. Recently, it was announced that it will be implemented soon. So what is the impact of delayed retirement on the elderly, and what is the mechanism of this impact?

Based on the data of "China's urban and rural elderly population status tracking survey", qualitative and quantitative research methods are used in this paper. The subjective well-being of the explained variable is an ordered classified variable. Therefore, this paper uses descriptive statistical analysis, ordered logit regression model and generalized estimating equations. Code the retirement time according to different gender and the different retirement time between whether the elder is cadre or not, and assign it as early retirement, on-time retirement and delayed retirement. Focusing on the impact of retirement time on the subjective well-being of the elderly, through reviewing the existing research on the influencing factors of the subjective well-being of the elderly at home and abroad and screening the variables in the questionnaire, this paper explores the mechanism of the impact of retirement time from seven aspects: gender, cadre or not, work place before retirement, education level, marital status, health status and economic status.

The results of generalized estimating equation model show that with the gradual delay of retirement time, the subjective well-being of the elderly tends to be higher. Compared with early retirement, delayed retirement and on-time retirement can significantly improve the subjective well-being of the elderly, and the impact of delayed retirement is greater than on-time retirement. Many variables are involved in the effect of retirement time. Compared with men, women tends to get higher subjective well-being; Compared with state-owned enterprises, government institutions have a significant positive impact on the subjective well-being of the elderly; With the improvement of education level, the positive impact on the subjective well-being of the elderly first increases and then decreases, reflecting the change of marginal income; Compared with having a spouse, having no spouse has a negative impact on the subjective well-being of the elderly; The gradual improvement of health and economic status will gradually improve the subjective well-being of the elderly. Compared with 2000, the subjective well-being of the elderly tends to be lower in 2006.         

This paper proves the rationality and necessity of the delayed retirement policy to a certain extent. The delayed retirement policy can alleviate the aging population and the pressure of pension payment in China. At the same time, it will potentially improve the subjective well-being of the people who enter the delayed retirement in the future, which is conducive to maintaining social stability and improving people's well-being. In addition, from the perspective of life course, the conclusion of this paper has the characteristics of longitudinal depth. It is not limited to the previous single cross-sectional data analysis, and it looks at the impact on the elderly in the long run. Finally, it puts forward relevant policy suggestions to improve various social security systems and provide accurate support for different elderly groups We should build and promote all kinds of activity places for the elderly, create an atmosphere of retirement and good and convenient social places for the retired elderly, promote the subjective well-being of the elderly from all aspects, and create a better life.