随着经济社会发展和社会财富积累，自然灾害对人民群众的生产生活带来了更大的影响和危害。只有建立起科学、完善的自然灾害救助应急管理体系，才能及时有效地开展自然灾害救助应急响应工作，才能最大限度地保障人民群众生命和财产安全。自然灾害救助应急预案是为建立健全应对突发自然灾害救助体系和运行机制、规范救助应急行为、提高救助应急能力、减少人民群众生命和财产损失、维护灾区社会稳定而预先制定的救助应急工作方案，是自然灾害救助应急管理体系建设的重要内容，也是开展自然灾害救助应急响应工作的重要依据。 开展自然灾害救助应急预案推演技术研究，对于实现自然灾害救助应急预案文本知识的形式化表达和管理，建立健全基于知识管理平台的统一指挥、多方参与、上下衔接、左右协调、运转高效的自然灾害救助应急管理体系，辅助决策制定和实施自然灾害救助应急响应方案，高效执行救助应急响应任务和行动，减少突发自然灾害事件带来的影响具有重要意义。本论文完成的研究工作和创新点主要包括： 首先，探讨了中国自然灾害救助应急管理与应急预案管理现状和问题。回顾了与自然灾害救助应急预案制定和实施密切相关的两项基础性工作，即中国自然灾害分类的标准化进程与灾情管理的规范化历程。总结了当前自然灾害救助应急预案制定和实施的现状，分析了自然灾害救助应急预案管理存在的问题。 其次，分析了自然灾害救助应急预案推演过程。深入分析了基于预案的救助应急决策过程和自然灾害救助应急预案工作流程。探讨了自然灾害救助应急预案推演的核心问题，提出了自然灾害救助应急预案推演的决策主体、决策对象和决策环境。构建了由灾害救助应急态势感知、灾害救助应急响应等级判定、灾害救助应急响应任务和行动识别、灾害救助应急响应方案制定、灾害救助应急响应方案执行五大步骤组成的自然灾害救助应急预案推演过程。 再次，研究了自然灾害救助应急预案建模方法。分析了自然灾害救助应急预案的主要组成要素及其属性。针对自然灾害救助应急预案组成要素的特点，基于分析本体建模理论和特点，给出了救助事件本体、应急态势本体、应急组织本体和应急资源本体模型。针对自然灾害救助应急预案应急过程特点，采用工作流过程模型实现自然灾害救助应急预案工作流建模。 然后，研究了自然灾害救助应急响应方案决策制定方法。分析了自然灾害救助应急方案设计的基本要求、基本格式、基本类型，定义了自然灾害救助应急响应方案形式化表达模型，给出了自然灾害救助应急响应方案决策建模技术方法，定义了模型主要组件的功能和输入输出参数。研究了自然灾害救助应急响应方案评价与优化方法，构建了主要方案的评价与优化模型。 最后，结合本文提出的模型和方法，提出了一种自然灾害救助应急预案推演模型EPDM，定义了EPDM模型的结构框架，设计了模型的运行流程，建模了EPDM模型的用户角色，提出了EPDM模型开发的技术体系。 本论文研究的意义在于全面系统地对自然灾害救助应急预案推演的关键技术问题进行了深入阐述，通过分析自然灾害救助应急预案推演过程，研究提出了自然灾害救助应急预案建模方法和自然灾害救助应急响应方案决策制定方法，设计建立了一种自然灾害救助应急预案推演模型EPDM，为研究和开发自然灾害救助应急预案推演系统提供了技术方法。

With the development of society and economy, and the accumulation of social wealth, natural disasters caused great influences and harms on people’s daily production and living. Therefor, a scientific and perfect natural disaster relief emergency management system must be established so as to implement emergency response works timely and effective, and to maximize the protection of people's lives and property safety. Natural disasters relief emergency plan is pre-formulated to establish a good natural disasters relief system and operational mechanism, regulate the emergency relief behavior, improve emergency response and rescue capabilities, reduce the loss of life and property, and maintain social stability in the disaster area, which is the important content on construction of natural disasters relief emergency management system, but also an important basis for carry out natural disasters relief emergency response works. Research on deduction technology of natural disasters relief emergency plan have great significance for the formal representation and management of knowledge in natural disasters relief emergency plan texts, the establishment of a perfect natural disasters relief emergency response system based on knowledge management platform with characteristics of unified command, multi-participation, upper and lower cohesion, coordination and efficient operation, decision support the formulation and implementation of natural disasters relief emergency response programs and efficient implementation the rescue emergency response tasks and actions, and reduce the impact of sudden natural disasters. Completed research work and innovations include: Firstly, the status and problems of natural disasters relief emergency management and emergency plans management are discussed. Reviewed two basic works are closely related to the the development and implementation of natural disasters relief emergency plan, those are natural disasters classification and natural disasters damage information management; summarized the development and implementation status, analyzed the problem of natural disasters relief emergency plans management.Secondly, natural disasters relief emergency plan deduction process is analyzed. In-depth analysis of the core issue of emergency plans deduction, propose the decision-making main body, ecision-making object and ecision-making environment; build the natural disasters emergency plan deduction process.Thirdly, natural disasters relief emergency plan modeling method is studied. Analysis of natural disasters relief emergency plan elements and their attributes; build emergency situational ontology, emergency organization ontology, and emergency resources ontology model; build natural disasters relief emergency plan emergency process model based on workflow process modeling method.And then, to study the natural disasters relief emergency response program decision-making method. Analysis of the basic requirements, basic format and basic types of natural disasters relief emergency programs, defined a formal representation model for emergency response programs; propose the technology processes of emergency response programs decision-making modeling; study the emergency response program evaluation and optimization methods.Finally, based on the proposed models and methods, developed the EPDM（ Emergency Plan Deduction Model of natural disasters relief）and given a detailed introduction on model composition modules, running processes, user roles and technology architecture.The important significance of this dissertation is the introducing of China's natural disasters relief and emergency plan management status and problems, analysing the deduction process of natural disasters relief emergency plan, natural disasters relief emergency plan modeling methods and natural disasters relief emergency response program decision-making methods are studied, designed and established a natural disasters relief emergency plan deduction model, which will provides a set of solutions for developing an natural disasters relief emergency plan deduction system.