道路雪灾是在冬、春季节低温环境下，由降雪事件引起的大量积雪、能见度降低等现象导致车辆通行受到一定程度影响的一种灾害。道路雪灾一般发生在降雪量大且路网密集的地区，严重的道路雪灾会导致长时间的道路通行受阻甚至中断，对当地物资供应造成严重影响。近年来，因全球气候变暖的影响，极端天气发生的频率不断提升，在极地放大效应的影响下，北极地区发生极端降雪事件的概率不断提高。这一现象不仅改变着北极地区的降水格局，更重要的是将对该地区的居民点、日常出行、物资运输等产生极为不利的影响。因此，针对北极地区开展大尺度的雪灾道路风险研究，有利于提高人们对北极地区雪灾特点的认识，对于探明雪灾的变化趋势，开展合理风险防范具有重大现实意义。本研究以北极地区为研究区，依托熵组合加权法，运用 Matlab、 ArcGIS 等工具，对研究区雪灾危险性、道路脆弱性和风险进行评估，探究北极地区道路雪灾风险分布规律及主要影响因素，分析其时空变化规律，并针对性地提出防灾减灾建议。 为人们进一步认识北极地区的雪灾特点及当地的防灾减灾救灾工作提供了一定的参考。 本研究得出的主要结论如下：
1）探明了北极地区雪灾危险性的分布及变化趋势。 危险性较大的地区主要集中在格陵兰岛东南部、冰岛大部、挪威西部以及加拿大东部等地区，造成上述地区雪灾危险性大的主要原因是降雪频率高且积雪时间长。 中高雪灾危险性的地区面积约占整个北极地区总面积的 30%，其多数分布于海拔较高的山地地区。在 2006-2020年期间，北极地区整体的雪灾危险性呈现先上升后下降再上升的趋势，格陵兰岛、加拿大东部、俄罗斯东欧平原、西西伯利亚平原及中西伯利亚高原地区的波动性较强。自 2015 年以来，北极地区整体的雪灾危险性持续升高。
2）分析了北极地区道路雪灾风险的分布特征和影响因素。风险较高的地区集中在俄罗斯东欧平原、切尔斯基山脉、阿拉斯加南部、加拿大西部、格陵兰岛东南部以及冰岛等地区。分析发现北极地区雪灾危险性较高的地区多集中于山地地区，远离路网和人口密集的高脆弱性地区，在上述地区中，很少出现由高危险性和高脆弱性共同导致道路雪灾风险偏高的情况。其中俄罗斯东欧平原、切尔斯基山脉地区风险较高是由高脆弱性所导致，其余地区是由高危险性导致
的风险偏高。
3）查明了北极地区道路雪灾风险 2006-2020 年期间时空演变特征。 2006-2020 年，北极地区整体的道路雪灾风险呈先升高后降低再升高的变化趋势，与雪灾危险性和道路脆弱性整体的变化趋势相似。 2006-2014 年，整体风险波动上升， 2010 年风险最大； 2014-2016 年，整体风险快速下降，并于 2016 年达到最低； 2016 年后风险再次呈现稳固上升趋势。俄罗斯汉特-曼西自治区所在地区的风险波动较为明显，该现象主要由雪灾危险性的波动导致。

4）俄罗斯东欧平原地区是北极道路雪灾威胁防范压力最大的地区。主要原因是该地区存在大量的人口和路网分布，且防灾减灾救灾能力低于其他国家和地区导致的脆弱性偏高。 其中科米共和国、涅涅茨自治区和彼尔姆边疆区是该地区中道路雪灾风险最高的区域，并且这些地区历年道路雪灾风险的波动明显，出现极端雪灾事件并造成大量损失的可能性较大。
 

Road snow disaster is a kind of disaster that affects vehicle traffic to a certainextent due to a large amount of snow and reduced visibility caused by snowfall event sunder the low temperature environment in winter and spring. Road snow disasters generally occur in areas with heavy snowfall and dense road networks. Severe road snow disasters may lead to long-term road traffic obstruction or even interruption, which seriously affects the local supplies. In recent years, due to the influence of global warming, the frequency of extreme weather has been increasing. Under the influence of polar amplification effect, the probability of extreme snowfall events in the Arctic has been increasing. This phenomenon is not only changing the precipitation pattern in the Arctic, but more importantly, it will have an extremely adverse impact on the settlement, daily travel and material transportation in the region. Therefore, large-scale road risk research on snow disasters in the Arctic region is conducive to improving people's understanding of the characteristics of snow disasters in the Arctic, and has great practical significance for identifying the changing trend of snow disasters and carrying out reasonable risk prevention. This study takes the Arctic region as the study area, relies on the entropy combination weighting method, and uses Matlab, ArcGIS and other tools to assess the snow disaster risk, road vulnerability and risk in the study area, explores the distribution law and main influencing factors of road snow disaster
risk in the Arctic region, analyzes the spatio-temporal change law, and puts forward targeted suggestions on disaster prevention and mitigation. The main conclusions of this study are as follows:
1) The distribution and changing trend of snow disaster risk in the Arctic were investigated. The areas with greater risk are mainly concentrated in the southeast of Greenland, most of Iceland, western Norway and eastern Canada. The main reason for the greater risk of snow disasters in these areas is the high frequency of snowfall and the long duration of snow cover. The area at high risk of snow disaster accounts for about 30% of the total area of the entire Arctic, and most of them are distributed in the mountainous areas at higher altitudes. During 2006-2020, the overall risk of snow disaster in the Arctic showed a trend of first increasing, then decreasing and thenincreasing, with strong fluctuation in Greenland, Eastern Canada, Eastern European Plain of Russia, West Siberian Plain and Central Siberian Plateau. Since 2015, the overall risk of snow disasters in the Arctic has continued to increase.
2) The distribution characteristics and influencing factors of road snow disaster risk in the Arctic were analyzed. Higher risk areas are concentrated in the Eastern European plains of Russia, the Chersky Mountains, southern Alaska, western Canada, southeastern Greenland, and Iceland. The analysis shows that the areas with high snow disaster risk in the Arctic are mostly concentrated in the mountain areas, far from the road network and densely populated high-vulnerability areas. In the above areas, the situation that the high risk of road snow disaster is rarely caused by the combination of high risk and high vulnerability. Among them, the high risk in the Eastern European plain and Chersky Mountain region of Russia is caused by high vulnerability, and the rest of the region is caused by high risk.
3) The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of road snow disaster risk in the Arctic during 2006-2020 were identified. From 2006 to 2020, the overall risk of road snow disaster in the Arctic shows a trend of first increasing, then decreasing and then increasing, which is similar to the overall trend of snow disaster risk and road vulnerability. From 2006 to 2014, the overall risk fluctuation increased, with the highest risk in 2010; From 2014 to 2016, the overall risk decreased rapidly and reached the lowest in 2016. After 2016, the risk again showed a solid upward trend. The risk fluctuation of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous region in Russia is more obvious, which is mainly caused by the fluctuation of snow disaster risk.
4) The Eastern European plain region of Russia is the area with the greatest pressure to prevent the threat of snow disaster on the road of Arctic. The main reason is that the region has a large population and road network distribution, and the disaster
prevention and relief capacity is lower than other countries and regions, resulting in high vulnerability. Among them, Komi Republic, Nenets Autonomous Region and Perm Krai are the regions with the highest risk of road snow disaster in the region, and the risk of road snow disaster in these regions fluctuates obviously over the years, and the possibility of extreme snow disaster events and a large number of losses is greater.