在中国古代历史研究中，历代兴亡及其原因是一个重大问题；在中国史学史的研究中，史学家的兴亡论是中国古代历史理论研究的一个重大问题。

在中国历史进程中，人们对历史经验的总结，是贯穿始终的一个大问题。对朝代更迭的考察是政权统治的主要经验、方法来源。西周初年，周公总结夏、商的统治经验，促使西周走向繁荣。汉初的统治者以秦为鉴，休养生息，开创了“文景之治”。唐太宗君臣，评隋之盛衰，鉴戒历代为政之得失，形成了“贞观之治”的盛世。在这样的发展过程中，对历代兴亡的考察成为了史学家史学活动的内容之一，兴亡论成为中国古代史学家史论、政论等评论中的一种专门的内容。朱敬则《十代兴亡论》、权德舆《两汉辨亡论》等都是其中的代表著作。

宋代史学的发展与内忧外患的历史形势，加深了史学家考察历代兴亡的迫切需要。两宋对历代兴亡的考察与时代政局紧密相关,且相较于魏晋隋唐时期，无论是从数量上还是讨论的深度上都有所发展。司马光提出了“治乱之道，古今一贯”的观点，认为朝代盛衰之理是有迹可循的。在具体论述中，两宋史学家的兴亡论形成了以下三个重心：

第一，北宋的史学家怀着对盛世的向往与对皇朝衰败的忧患思想，着意于对唐代兴亡的考察。在考察中，唐之盛衰之势以及兴盛、乱亡之因是史学家们考察的重点。对此，多数北宋史学家认为，唐因民众苦于隋朝统治的时势而兴；因君明臣直，君主为政重仁德、教化，辅以适度的律法而盛；又因宦官专政、党争与藩镇割据的乱政而亡。也有史学家认为，德行有亏与女子干政是唐衰败的原因。

第二，以司马光为代表的史学家形成了以“关国家盛衰，系生民休戚，善可为法，恶可为戒”作为为治之本的论述主旨。司马光通过对“君”、“国”“民”三者关系的思考，提出“非民无以守国”的观点，并关注生民之休戚，认为君主应当察民情，爱民恤民以安天下。同时，司马光认为“国之治乱，尽在国君”，并以朝代盛衰的不同阶段，将君主分为创业之主、守成之主、陵夷之主、中兴之主和乱亡之主五类。南宋胡寅承司马光之论，作了一定的论述与分析。

第三，以李焘为代表的一些南宋史学家，以六朝历史为参考，形成了以谋划南宋“复兴”为目的的论述。面对南宋仅存“半壁江山”与时刻面临战争威胁的历史形势，李焘着意于对同样居于南方的孙吴、东晋、刘宋、南齐、南梁、南陈政权兴亡的考察，提出了“胜天下之具”方可“一天下”的认识。他认为，具备了地势、民心、兵、将和事机这五项条件，就能取得战争的胜利，实现南宋的复兴。

这些论述与时事政局紧密联系，反映了两宋史家的史学修养、忧患意识、政治见解与现实关怀。北宋与南宋史学家兴亡论考察的现实目的是不同的。北宋史学家的兴亡论考察，以谋盛世，求长治久安为论述的现实目标；南宋史学家考察兴亡，为的是寻求南宋振兴与恢复对北方统治的方法。尽管在具体兴亡史事的分析中，宋代史学家的兴亡论存在受政治立场等现实因素影响的情况，有时存在一定的偏颇，但是欧阳修、司马光、李焘等大多数两宋史学家在论述中，尽力秉持史家修史之公心，表现出中国古代史学家良好的史学修养及其对皇朝政治统治的高度关注。

The study of the fact and the causes of the rise and fall of dynasties is a major problem in the study of ancient Chinese history.The historian’s view of the Rise and Fall of Dynasties is a major problem in the study of the History of Chinese history.

In Ancient China, People's summary of historical experience is always a big problem. The investigation of the change of dynasties is the main source of experience and methods of political rule.At the beginning of the Western Zhou Dynasty, Zhou Gong summed up the experience of the rule of Xia and Shang, and promoted the prosperity of the Western Zhou Dynasty. The rulers of the early Han Dynasty summarize Qin's experience, recuperating and resting,and then, creat a prosperous world. Emperor Taizong of the Tang Dynasty commented on the prosperity and decline of the Sui Dynasty, appraised the success and failure of politics in the past, and then, formed a prosperous world. In such a development process, the investigation of the rise and fall of the dynasties has become one of the contents of the historian's historical activities. Zhu Jingze's On the Rise and Fall of the Ten Dynasties, Quan Deyu's Analysis of the Han Dynasty's demise are among the representative works.

The development of the history of the Song Dynasty and the historical situation of internal and external problems have deepened the urgent need for historians to examine the rise and fall of the past dynasties. Compared with the Wei, Jin, Sui and Tang Dynasties, the Song Dynasty's investigation of the rise and fall of the dynasties has developed both in quantity and in depth of discussion .Besides, this investigation closely related to the political situation of the times. Sima Guang put forward the view of "the way to govern is always the same", and he believed that the reason for the ups and downs of the dynasty is traceable. In the specific exposition, the historians of the two Song dynasties formed the following three focuses:

First, the historians of the Northern Song Dynasty cherished the yearning for the prosperous age and the worries about the decline of the dynasty, and they focused on the investigation of the rise and fall of the Tang Dynasty. In the investigation, the trend of Tang's ups and downs and the reasons for the prosperity and chaos are the focus of historians' investigations. In this regard, most historians of the Northern Song Dynasty believe that Tang was prosperous due to the suffering of the people in the Sui Dynasty. Tang is prosperous because of the monarch and minister know each other, king's kindness and enlightenment and moderate Law. Tang died of eunuch dictatorship, party struggle, and chaos in the separatist regime. Some historians also believe that the lack of virtue and women participate in politics are the reasons for Tang's decline.

Second, the historian represented by Sima Guang has formed the main theme of the discourse based on "the rise and fall of the country, the unanimity of the people, the good can be the law, and evil can be the precept". Sima Guang put forward the view of "No country can't defend without the people" through thinking about the relationship between "king", "nation" and "people".He also pay attention to the rest of the people and think that the king should observe the people's sentiments and love the people ,so that the government will be safe and long. At the same time, Sima Guang believes that "rule of state is ruled by the king".In different stages of the rise and fall of the dynasty, he divided the monarchs into five categories.

Third, some Southern Song historians represented by Li Tao took the history of the Six Dynasties as a reference to form an exposition aimed at planning the "revival" of the Southern Song Dynasty. In the face of the historical situation in the Southern Song Dynasty where there were only "half of the country" and the threat of war at all times, Li Tao focused on the investigation of the rise and fall of Sun Wu, Dong Jin, Liu Song, Nan Qi, Nan Liang and Nan Chen regimes who also live in the south. Li Tao put forward the understanding that "the following conditions" can be used to "unify the world".

These expositions are closely connected with the current affairs and political situation, and reflect the historian cultivation, sense of urgency, political opinions and realistic concern of the historians of the two Song dynasties. The real purpose of the investigation of the rise and fall of historians in the Northern Song Dynasty and the Southern Song Dynasty is different. The study of the rise and fall of the historians of the Northern Song Dynasty, with the aim of seeking a prosperous age and seeking long-term stability. While the Southern Song historians inspected the rise and fall in order to seek ways to revitalize the Southern Song Dynasty and restore its domination to the North part of Northen Song Dynasty. Although in the analysis of the history of specific rise and fall, the historians of the Song Dynasty have been affected by realistic factors such as political positions, and sometimes there is a certain bias. However, most historians of the two Song Dynasties, such as Ouyang Xiu, Sima Guang, and Li Tao, tried their best to uphold the ethics of historians' history, showing the good historical literacy of ancient Chinese historians and their great concern for the political rule of the dynasty.