中文题名: | 债券市场发展对经济增长的影响 ——基于金融发展与经济增长协调度的视角 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | chi |
学科代码: | 020200 |
学科专业: | |
学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 经济学硕士 |
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学位年度: | 2023 |
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学院: | |
研究方向: | 公司金融 |
第一导师姓名: | |
第一导师单位: | |
提交日期: | 2023-06-14 |
答辩日期: | 2023-05-25 |
外文题名: | THE IMPACT OF BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH ——BASED ON THE COORDINATION OF FINANCE AND ECONOMYE |
中文关键词: | |
外文关键词: | Bond market ; Economic growth ; Coordinated development of finance and economy ; Increase direct financing |
中文摘要: |
当前,我国正在加快推进“国内大循环为主,国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”,以求经济高质量发展。加快形成新发展格局,不仅是我国经济发展模式转向高质量发展的内在要求,也是应对短期特定冲击和实现长期高水平开放的关键所在。新发展格局下促进经济高质量发展的核心在于优化金融结构,而优化金融结构的主要着力点在于大幅提高直接融资比例。债券市场作为直接融资的重要融资渠道,提高债券融资在直接融资中所占的比重是我国债券市场发展的一项长期战略目标。当前在我国的新发展格局下,探究如何通过发展债券市场来推动经济的高质量增长,对推动我国经济实现高质量、高效率、可持续、更公平、更安全的发展具有非常重大的现实意义。 本文选取了2006年-2021年间全国约30个省的省级面板数据,采用固定效应模型,探究了债券市场发展对经济增长的影响,并在研究中将金融发展与经济增长的协调度这一指标考虑进去,讨论金融发展相对于实体经济增长的差异对这种关系的影响。之后本文将各省份按照人均GDP水平分成两部分,探究在不同经济水平地区上这种影响的差异。本文还将直接融资水平这一指标加入到研究当中,探究提升直接融资水平在债券发展与经济增长中发挥的作用。最后,本文对各项研究结果进行了稳健性检验。 本文的研究结果如下:债券市场发展有助于促进经济增长;金融发展速度与实体经济增长速度之间的差异,对债券发展和经济增长之间的关系存在负向的调节效应,当金融发展与经济发展不协调时,不利于债券市场发挥促进经济增长的作用;在高经济发展水平地区,债券发展对经济增长的促进作用更强,同时金融与经济增长的差异带来的负面影响也会消失,而在低经济发展水平地区,这种负面影响仍然存在;在高直接融资水平地区,债券发展对经济增长的促进作用也更强,同时金融与经济增长的差异带来的负面影响会消失,而在低直接融资水平地区这种负面影响仍存在,这说明提升直接融资水平,有助于缓解金融发展与经济发展不协调带来的负面影响,当发展债券市场时,也可以更好地实现经济的高质量增长。 在当前我国大力发展金融脱媒的背景下,必须认识到直接融资对实现经济高质量发展带来的积极意义。在直接融资中,债券市场作为非常重要的一部分,也亟待取得进一步的发展。大力发展债券市场,不仅要总结归纳当前我国债券市场亟需优化的地方,进而找出经济高质量发展对债券市场创新的“新要求”,不断创新债券产品;还要建立健全相关法律法规,出台有关政策,并不断调整其市场结构以适应不同类型企业的融资需求。在推动经济高质量发展的过程中,我们也不能忽略经济与金融的协调发展。始终保持我国经济与金融以一个和谐的增速发展,不仅有利于金融市场更好地发挥推动经济增长的作用,也有助于我国经济在长期实现健康、平稳的发展。 |
外文摘要: |
At present, China is accelerating the promotion of a "major domestic cycle, domestic and international cycles promoting each other's new development pattern", in order to achieve a high quality of economic development. Accelerating the formation of a new development pattern is not only an internal requirement for China's economic development model to shift to high-quality development, but also the key to responding to specific shocks in the short term and achieving a high level of opening-up in the long run. Under the new development pattern, the core of promoting high-quality economic development lies in optimizing the financial structure, and the main focus of optimizing the financial structure is to significantly increase the proportion of direct financing. As an important channel of direct financing, it is a long-term strategic objective to increase the proportion of bond financing in the direct financing. At present, under the new development pattern in our country, it has great practical significance to explore how to promote the high-quality growth of the economy through the development of the bond market, to realize our economy to achieve high quality, efficient, sustainable, equitable, safe. This paper selects the provincial panel data of about 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2021, uses the fixed utility model to explore the impact of bond market development on economic growth, takes into account the degree of coordination between financial development and economic growth, and studies the impact of the difference between financial development and real economy growth on this relationship. This paper also divides each province into two parts according to the level of per capita GDP to explore the difference of such influence in regions with different economic levels. This paper also adds the index of direct financing level into the study to explore the role and influence of improving the level of direct financing in bond development and economic growth. Finally, the robustness of the results is tested. The results of this paper are as follows: the development of bond market is helpful to promote economic growth; The difference between the speed of financial development and the growth of the real economy has a negative moderating effect on the relationship between bond development and economic growth. When financial development and economic development are not coordinated, it is not conducive to the bond market to play the role of promoting economic growth. In the areas with high economic level, the development of bonds has a stronger promoting effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, the negative impact brought by the difference between finance and economic growth will disappear. In the areas with low economic level, the negative difference still exists. In regions with high direct financing level, bond development plays a stronger role in promoting economic growth. Meanwhile, the negative impact brought by the difference between finance and economic growth will disappear, while regions with low direct financing level still exist. Improving direct financing level will help alleviate the negative impact brought by the disharmony between financial development and economic development. We can also better achieve high-quality economic growth. In the context of the development of financial disintermediation, it is necessary to realize the positive significance of direct financing to the development of high quality economy. In direct financing, the bond market, as a very important part, is also in urgent need of further development, and vigorously develop the bond market. It is not only necessary to sum up the areas in urgent need of optimization of the bond market at present, but also to find out the "new requirements" for high-quality economic development on the bond market innovation, constantly innovate bond products, but also to establish and improve the relevant laws, regulations and policies. And constantly adjust its market structure to meet the financing needs of different types of enterprises. In the process of promoting high-quality economic development, we should not ignore the coordinated development of economic and financial, always maintain the economy and financial development at a harmonious rate of growth, not only conducive to the financial market to better play the role of promoting economic growth, but also help realize the healthy and steady development of our economy in the long term. |
参考文献总数: | 94 |
馆藏号: | 硕020200/23008 |
开放日期: | 2024-06-14 |