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中文题名:

 能源经济系统的结构变动研究——基于不同模型的比较分析    

姓名:

 刘世祥    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 中文    

学科代码:

 071201    

学科专业:

 统计学    

学生类型:

 学士    

学位:

 理学学士    

学位年度:

 2022    

学校:

 北京师范大学    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 统计学院 ; 国民核算研究院    

第一导师姓名:

 石峻驿    

第一导师单位:

 北京师范大学统计学院    

提交日期:

 2022-05-26    

答辩日期:

 2022-05-17    

外文题名:

 The Structural Change of Energy - Economic System:A Comparative Analysis Based on Different Models    

中文关键词:

 经济增长 ; 能源消费 ; 环境治理 ; PVAR模型 ; PSEM模型    

外文关键词:

 Economic growth ; Energy consumption ; Environmental governance ; PVAR ; PSEM    

中文摘要:
      本文使用PVAR模型和PSEM模型对中国大陆30个省份(不含西藏)2004年-2020年的经济增长-能源消费-环境治理系统进行建模分析。结果表明整个系统具有一定的序列相关性,能源消费是经济增长的单向granger原因,环境治理与能源消费互为granger原因。能源消费的正向冲击对经济增长短期有利,长期有害;环境治理的正向冲击对经济增长短期有害,长期有利。异质性分析表明,能源大省在受到环境治理的正向冲击时,其能源消费将快速回弹至高水平,非能源大省的能源消费则会先降后升,变动相对较小。因此本文建议政府应渐近地实现经济绿色转型,减小能源消费的序列相关性;同时要因地制宜制定能源与环境政策,长期维持能源大省环境治理投入的高比例,提高非能源大省对环境治理投入变动的灵敏度。
外文摘要:
    This paper studies the endogenous relationships among energy consumption, economic growth and environmental governance in China by applying PVAR and PSEM approach with a panel data of 30 Chinese provinces over the period 2004-2020. The results show that the whole system has certain inertia. There exists a bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and environmental governance, and a unidirectional Granger causality from energy consumption to economic growth. Moreover, the positive impact of energy consumption is beneficial to economic growth in the short term but harmful in the long term. The positive impact of environmental governance is harmful to economic growth in the short term but beneficial in the long term. Heterogeneity analysis shows that given a positively impacted by environmental governance, energy consumption in provinces with a greater consumption of energy will quickly rebound to a high level, while energy consumption in provinces with a less consumption of energy will firstly decline and then rise, with relatively small changes. Therefore, the government should gradually realize the green transformation of economy and reduce the inertia of energy consumption; and should formulate energy and environmental policies according to local conditions: maintain a high proportion of environmental governance investment in provinces with a greater consumption of energy for a long time, and improve the sensitivity of environmental governance investment in provinces with a less consumption of energy.
参考文献总数:

 35    

作者简介:

 刘世祥,北京师范大学2018级统计学院本科生。    

插图总数:

 7    

插表总数:

 6    

馆藏号:

 本071201/22044    

开放日期:

 2023-05-26    

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