综合国力测算模型的确定代表了一种价值观的选择，也代表了对综合国力内涵、构成要素、指标权重、测算方法等技术层面上的全面理解。长期以来，国内外很多机构与学者都尝试着提出他们认为最佳的测算模型，并把它们应用于对相关重要国家的国力测算中，哪种方法合理、科学、准确，其实很难确定，莫衷一是。　　　本文的研究目的在于立足2010年中国经济发展所取得的辉煌成就和综合国力的增长现实，展望未来2030年中国的综合国力趋势。为此，必须找到一个科学合理的工具，即预测综合国力值的测算模型。通过对现有国内外的模型综述和分析，在优化这些模型的基础上，根据中国的现实和未来走势，完成了本研究模型的逻辑形成过程。要考究模型的合理性、科学性和可行性就需把它应用于中国综合国力分析的实践中。在实际计算和分析时，采用标准化方法和美国进行测得结果的比较，发现了和最强国家的差距。对这些差距进行分析找到了国力提升的制约因素，提出如何克服这些制约因素的路径和措施。　　　鉴于作者专业背景和以往的工作和研究经历，本研究的基本方法是实证和规范相结合。这是由于中国大国崛起的独特属性，使这一对综合国力研究过程不可能变成“纯技术化”层次，主观规范性的因素占较大空间，其中，研究前期涉及的概念解释、要素归纳、权重确定，研究中期的测算计量、过程分析、结果对比，研究后期的制约原因、解决的路径和措施，所涵盖的跨学科研究和对它们的定性分析都是规范性的表现。　　　基于研究覆盖面的广泛性、研究结构的复杂性、计量要求的精确性，本文的论证思路采取了一定的灵活性和技巧性，没有反复纠结在复杂的计量测算之中，主要进行和美国的对比研究。以美国的国力为标准，推算出中国的国力得分值、现实差距和国际排名的情况，总结出未来走势所需要正确的路径和选择方法。　　　文章在结构上切入两个基本问题：一是综合国力测算模型的理论基础和模型本身的优化构建；二是综合国力模型的实际应用，即运用到中国2010年的国力测算和2030年国力的预测中，发现问题，解决问题。具体而言，本研究基本架构分为六个部分：　　　1.绪论。主要介绍论文选题的背景和意义，论文的理论基础，国内外研究现状，研究的基本思路和方法，研究的主要内容和创新。　　　2.综合国力的基本理论。该章节介绍了综合国力基本概念的内涵和外延及其与有关概念的相互关系，在阐述概念的基础上提出了本项研究综合国力与资源、转换机制投入和产出的函数关系。综合国力的整体及其构成要素之间有着相互独立又相互关联的辩证关系。　　　3.综合国力测算模型的分析比较与优化选择。该章节是全文的核心部分，文章论证的主要目的就是确定了构成要素的前提下，论证了国内外综合国力的定量模型——国力函数。在比较、分析和优化有关国力方程的基础上，提出了本文的测算模型及其测量方法、特点，并进行一定程度的科学论证。　　4.综合国力测算模型的应用：对2030年中国综合国力研究。以2010年中国综合国力作为测算2030年的基准数，推算出2030年我国的总体国力的大体状况和在世界上的地位，及对世界的发挥怎样的影响。　　　5.二0三0年中国综合国力目标实现的路径选择。在上章节测算的基础上，发现遏制目标实现的有关国家统一、政治制度、资源环境、经济社会发展等的制约因素，对此提出实现2030年综合国力目标的相应对策。　　　结论。本章节是全文的总结，对本研究作最后的结论性概括，并提出了一些尚未解决的问题供后来者探究时参考。

The determination of the calculation model of the Comprehensive National Strength represents a choice of values, also represents the connotation,elements, weight indicators of the Comprehensive National Strength on a comprehensive understanding of the technical aspects of the calculation method, etc.. A long time, many agencies and scholars at home and abroad have tried to estimate model as they think best, and to apply them to measure national strength of the related countries. which method is reasonable, scientific and accurate, in fact, difficult to determine, today .　　　The purpose of this study is based on the reality of 2010 by the brilliant achievements of China's economic development and the growth of the overall national strength, also on looking forward to trend of China's comprehensive national strength, which is coming in 2030. For this reason, it is necessary to find a scientific and rational tools which is to forecast the value of the Comprehensive National Strength. By the way of synthesis and analysis for existing calculation model in home and abroad,the author ,on the basis of the optimization of these models, complete the logic forming process of the present research model according to China's reality and the future trend.If one want to check the rationality, scientific and feasible of model, it should be applied to the practice of China's Comprehensive National Strength. When doing the actual calculation and analysis, we use the standardized way to compare the measured results with the United States, and found the gap between our country and the strongest countries.Analyzing these gaps, we find the constraints facts for enhancing national strength,and propose the path and measures on how to overcome these constraints. 　　　In view of the author’s professional background and previous work and research experience, the research method is a combination of empirical and normative. This is due to the unique attributes of the rise of China as a Great Nation, this comprehensive national strength during the study can not be turned into a "purely technical" level, subjective normative factors accounted for a larger space. the preliminary of the study involved concepts explained, elements summarized,and weight determination; the medium-term of the study involved estimates measurement, process analysis, and the compare of the results;the late of the study involved constraints reason, the solution path and measures.All the above-illustrated covered interdisciplinary research and qualitative analysis are normative performance.Based on the breadth of research coverage , the complexity of the study structure, the accuracy of the measurement requirements of this study, we take a certain amount of flexibility and skills on argument ideas, and do not repeatedly tangled in a complex measurement estimates, only compare with the United States,and calculated the reality gap between them and ranked it in the world,and summed up the future trend of the correct path and selection methods. 　　　The article is cut into two basic questions in the structure: First is the theoretical basis of the calculation model of the Comprehensive National Strength and to optimize to build the model itself ; Second is the practical application of the model of the Comprehensive National Strength, that is mean to apply to estimate China national strength in 2010 and the prediction of the national power in 2030, in the end ,to find the problem and solve the problem. Specifically, the basic framework of this study is divided into six parts:　　　Chapter I.Introduction: mainly introduces and describe the background and significance of the thesis topics, the theoretical basis of the paper, the research status at home and abroad, the basic ideas and methods of the study, the study's main content and innovation.　　　ChapterII. the basic theory of the Comprehensive National Strength: This chapter describes the basic connotation and extension of the concept of Comprehensive National Strength and its relationship with the relevant concepts. Basing on the concepts illustrated, this study provides a functional relationship among Comprehensive National Strength, resources and conversion mechanism. There should be a interdependent and interrelated dialectical relationship between the whole Comprehensive National Strength and its constituent elements　　　Chapter III. Analysis and comparison about the calculation model and optimal choice of Comprehensive National Strength. This chapter is the core part of the full-text article. The main purpose of the demonstration is to determine the elements premise, and goes on to demonstrate the quantitative model of Comprehensive National Strength at home and abroad, which is called national strength function or national strength equation. Based on comparison, analysis and optimization of the relevant national strength equation, the article show itself calculation model and measurement methods, features, and a certain degree of scientific proof.　　　Chapter IV. Application of Comprehensive National Strength calculation model: China’s Comprehensive National Strength in 2030. We regard China's Comprehensive National Strength in 2010 as the basal number to pre-estimate China national strength in 2030 and its status in the world. How about it’s impacting on the international society.　　　Chapter V. Path selection for China's Comprehensive National Strength goals in 2030. On the basis of estimates in the above chapter, we found constraints, which is about national unity, political systems, resources, environment, economic and social development, for achieving the target. For this, we proposed measures for goals of Comprehensive National Strength in 2030.　　　Conclusions. This section is a summary of the full text as the final conclusion, and summarized some unresolved issues for the latecomers to explore further as reference.