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中文题名:

 南京1736年以来逐季降水量的重建及初步分析    

姓名:

 伍国凤    

保密级别:

 公开    

学科代码:

 070401    

学科专业:

 地理科学    

学生类型:

 学士    

学位:

 理学学士    

学位年度:

 2008    

学校:

 北京师范大学    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 地理学与遥感科学学院    

第一导师姓名:

 郝志新    

第一导师单位:

 方修琦    

提交日期:

 2008-05-22    

答辩日期:

 2008-05-22    

外文题名:

 RECONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS OF SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OF NANJING SINCE 1736    

中文关键词:

 南京 ; 过去300年 ; 季降水量重建 ; 清代雨雪分寸资料    

中文摘要:
高分辨率历史气候序列的重建,是国际全球变化核心计划PAGES和CLIVAR的重要内容,是满足未来30~50年生存环境预测的迫切需要。本文利用清代《雨雪分寸》资料重建了南京1736~1909的逐季降水量,有益于探讨区域降水演变和极端旱涝年的发生规律,为气候变化预测、防灾减灾工作和农业生产规划提供参考意见。 本文的主要工作包括:(1)建立南京1736~1911的降水资料数据库;(2)构建1736~1848和1849~1909的降水量重建模型;(3)逐季恢复降水量,与1905~2006器测雨量数据拼接成约300年的降水序列;(4)分析序列的趋势、突变和周期特征及影响因素,识别极端旱涝年;(5)与其他重建序列进行对比;(6)探讨旱涝状况对农业生产的影响。 主要研究结论包括:(1)过去300年南京降水量的年代际变化显著,18~19世纪以多雨期为主,20世纪以少雨期为主;(2)60~80a年代际和2~5a年际周期明显,推测前者与太阳活动以及PDO、AO和AMO等有关,后者与ENSO、QBO等有关;(3)1795~1805、1824~1827以及21世纪初存在降水突变,推测前两者受火山活动影响,后者受全球变暖的气候背景影响;(4)1736~1909间存在15年极端涝年和12年极端旱年;(5)夏季重建序列与南京近五百年旱涝等级相关系数达0.37(p>0.001),与张德二等重建的年、季降水量序列变化趋势基本吻合;(6)夏季降水对秋收具有决定性影响,欠收年份绝大多数为降水异常年。在极端旱涝年,农作物播种、生长受阻,欠收严重。
外文摘要:
Reconstruction of high-resolution historical climate series is the key content of PAGES and CLIVAR as well as the important demand for future survival environment forecast. In this paper, seasonal precipitation of Nanjing during 1736~1909 are reconstructed by Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun archives in the Qing Dynasty, which avail to discuss precipitation change and occurrence of extreme drought-flood events and provide reference for disaster prevention-reduction and agricultural program. Executive work include: (1)establishing precipitation data base of Nanjing during 1736~1911; (2)constituting quantitative models during 1736~1848 and 1849~1909; (3)reconstructing historical seasonal precipitation and jointing instrumental observation data during 1905~2006; (4)analyzing tendency, abrupt change and cycle with relevant influencing factors and identifying extreme drought-flood years; (5)contracting with other reconstructed series; (6)discussing the relationship between precipitation and harvest. Achieved conclusions include: (1)inter-decadal changes are significant exhibiting dominant rainy periods in 18~19 centuries while rainless periods in 20 century; (2)60~80a and 2~5a oscillations are evident, speculating the former relates to solar activity and climatic states of PDO, AO and AMO, the latter to ENSO and QBO; (3)abrupt changes during 1795~1805 and 1824~1827 maybe involve volcanic eruption and the one during early 20 century involve global warming; (4) 15 extreme flood years and 12 extreme drought years exist during 1736~1909; (5)correlative coefficient between summer precipitation and drought-flood scales arrives at 0.37(p>0.001), tendency changes of the reconstructed series from this paper and Zhang are quite similar; (6)summer precipitation is crucial for autumn harvest and agricultural production severely decreased in extreme drought-flood years.
参考文献总数:

 50    

优秀论文:

 北京师范大学优秀本科论文    

插图总数:

 12    

插表总数:

 16    

开放日期:

 2008-05-22    

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