为应对资源环境挑战，社会经济正向服务型社会、生态经济迈进。作为现代工业服务产品的典型代表，传统中用于驱动机动车、通信基站等的铅酸电池也逐步被锂离子电池所替代，成为人与环境作用关系中的典型产品服务系统。本研究以“服务”为核心，选择了具有相似服务功能的铅酸电池和锂离子电池组成电池产品服务系统为研究对象，均按其生命周期阶段，包括生产原料生产、电池生产制造、使用和废物回收管理四个阶段，构成其产品服务系统。基于各阶段内在物质流、能量流和价值流三种流动形成复合流动分析，从单一系统到复合系统、从静态到动态、从理论到应用、再到综合管理，对电池产品服务系统特征进行了综合分析，进一步提出促进电池产业可持续发展措施。以中国大陆作为研究区域，相继研究了铅酸电池产品服务系统内部特征及其对资源-环境-社会-经济系统的影响，对比了铅酸-锂离子电池产品服务系统的内外特征差异，探究了产量结构变化下铅酸-锂离子电池产品服务系统的内部结构和外部影响的历史情况和发展趋势，结合我国两类型电池产品服务系统全生命周期中各阶段政策分析，提出促进电池行业健康发展和环境保护的综合管理建议。本研究主要内容和结果如下：

（1）构建了基于复合流动分析的电池产品服务系统分析框架与评价指标体系。根据物质流动全生命周期过程，结合能量流和价值流特点，分析了系统内部基本关系及其与外部系统的关系，构建了电池产品服务系统综合特征分析框架。在此基础上，分别定量解析了铅酸电池产品服务系统和锂离子电池产品服务系统中复合流动之间及其与外部系统间的关系，基于综合管理建立了由内部评价指标和外部影响指标组成的评价指标体系，并定量描述了指标体系中内部指标与外部影响指标的关系，是展开电池产品服系统内外影响分析和综合管理的基础。

（2）铅酸电池产品服务系统静态分析。根据复合流动分析方法，以2014年为现状年，分析了铅酸电池产品服务系统复合流动、内部指标和外部影响三方面的特征，以及内部指标对外部影响指标的影响水平。结果表明：2014年铅酸电池产品服务系统大循环率为0.317。使用阶段能量与物质耦合系数最大，分别约是其他阶段的6~18倍。铅在铅酸电池中价值与物质耦合系数最大，约是其他物质中铅的3~5倍。系统中单位重量铅酸电池完成服务后消耗铅矿石为0.86t，废铅排放量为0.55t，能耗量为2.77tce，服务量为1.89万 kW·h，价值增量为-10.4亿元。废物回收管理阶段和电池制造阶段废铅排放率、大循环率对外部系统的影响水平较高。

（3）在静态分析基础上，定量分析了1990-2016年铅酸电池产品服务系统的动态变化特征。包括对系统中复合流动、内部指标和外部影响相对指标的动态分析，根据指标类型采取相应动态评价指标计算方法。结果表明：物质流中，再生铅量增长最快，年平均增长率约为32%，能量流中，废物回收管理阶段能耗量增长最快，年平均增长率约为14%，价值流中，再生铅和回收的废电池中废铅价值增长最快，年增长率约为170%。内部评价指标中，大循环率由0.119增加到0.470，原生铅生产阶段和电池制造阶段的废铅排放率变小，变化范围为0.066~0.006和0.194~0.133，此变化有利于提高外部性能。各阶段单位含铅产品的能耗量整体上下降，各类产品中单位含铅产品价值整体升高。外部影响中，相对铅矿消耗量从1.78t/t降低到0.82t/t，相对废铅排放量先降低再升高，变化范围为0.55~1.03t/t。相对能量消耗量在小范围内呈波浪式下降，范围为3.41~2.94tce/t；相对价值增量负向增大，变化范围为-0.37~-1.19billion yuan/t。

（4）沿用铅酸电池产品服务系统特征分析方法，定量分析了铅酸-锂离子电池产品服务系统在产品结构改变下的静态和动态特征。结果表明：2016年铅酸电池产量约是锂离子电池产量的3.25倍，而其提供绝对服务量是锂离子电池的1.6倍。就研究中选择的元素来说，铅酸电池产品服务系统产生的物质资源、环境和能量资源的绝对影响分别约是锂离子电池产品服务系统的52倍、66倍和1.25倍，锂离子电池产品服务系统绝对经济产出是铅酸电池产品服务系统的1.25倍，则锂离子电池产品服务系统综合性能优于铅酸电池产品服务系统的。2000、2005、2010和2015年铅酸电池产量分别是锂离子电池的183.7、70.7、13.2和4.5倍，即锂离子电池产量增长速率快于铅酸电池的。外部影响随着产量增大而增大，铅酸电池产品服务系统外部影响大于锂离子电池产品服务系统的，锂离子电池产品服务系统的外部影响增长比铅酸电池产品服务系统的快。

（5）通过分析电池下游行业发展和服务替代，预测了电池需求总量和结构，及其产生的外部影响，识别出未来发展中可能出现的问题。研究中以行业发展规划、历史发展情况等为依据，采用自下而上方法预测了不同类型电池需求量，结合锂离子电池替代铅酸电池的速率，得到未来需求量结构，随着产量变化和循环率的提高等，预测不同类型外部影响的变化情况。结果表明：2021年、2025和2030年锂离子电池需求量分别是铅酸电池的1.4、2.5和5.3倍。新能源汽车配套动力电池需求量增长最快，其占总电池需求量百分比从42%上升到71%。当铅酸电池循环率从34.5%提高到75.0%，累计节约铅矿737万t，经济收益累计增加约1206亿元，当锂离子电池的循环率上升到30%，累计节约锂矿约33万吨，经济收益累计增加439亿元。但仍然可能存在资源供需关系紧张、大量废电池未能再生利用和产品结构不够优化的问题。

（6）按照铅酸-锂离子电池产品服务系统中物质元素生命周期阶段，辨识和分析了电池产品服务系统的各个阶段的政策。结果表明，铅酸电池产品服务系统相关政策在数量、涵盖广度、细化程度上优于锂离子电池产品服务系统的。管理中的不足主要是缺少系统全生命周期管理和环境管理滞后于行业发展，且锂离子电池产品服务系统管理缺少对生产过程锂回收率、排放限值和资源消耗等指标的定量规定。为实现电池行业健康、可持续发展，且更好保护环境，应当建立基于复合流动的全生命周期电池产品服务系统综合管理制度；调整产业服务结构，提高电池产品服务系统运行综合性能；突出产业环节管理，提高系统整体运行效率；结合特征分析结果和政策现状，突出规范管理重点。

To response the challenges from the resource and environmental system, the social economy is changing towards a service-oriented society and ecological economy. As a typical representative of modern service-oriented product industry, the lead-acid battery (LAB) used to drive vechicles and communication base stations have been replaced by lithium-ion battery (LIB) gradually, which becomes a typical product service system of the relationship between humans and the environment. In this study, “service” is the core, and the battery product service system composed of LAB and LIB with the same service was selected as the research object. Their four lifecycle satges form the production service system, which includes production of primary material (PPM), manfacture and fabrication of battery(F&M), use and waste management and recycling (WMR). Based on the hybrid flow analysis composed by material flow, energy flow and value flow in each stage, the study was carried out from single system to composite system, from static to dynamic, from theory to application, and then to integrated management. The comphensive characteristic of the battery product service system was analyzed, and the further measures to promote the sustainable development of the battery industry were put forward. China mainland was chosen as the research region, and we have successively studied the internal characteristics of the lead-acid battery product service system and its impact on the resource-environment-society-economy system, compared the internal and external characteristics of the lead-acid-lithium-ion battery product service system, and explored the history and future of the composite battery product service system under changes in the output structure. Then combined with the policy analysis of each stage in the lifecycle of lead-acid battery product service system (LABPSS) and lithium-ion battery product service system (LIBPSS), the intergrated management recommendations to promote the healthy development of battery product service systemand envieonmental protection were propounded. The main contents and conslusions of the study are follows:
(1) The framework and evaluation index system of battery product service system for analyzing the characteristic was constructed based on hyhrid flow. According the life cycle of the material in the battery product service system, combined with the feature of energy flow and value flow, the framework between the battery product service systemand the external systems was developed. And the quantitative relationships between internal and their external systems in LABPSS and LIBPSS were analyzed, respectively, as well as the relationship between the internal and external indicators in the evaluation system was established based on the intergrated management. The relationship between the internal indicators and the external influence indicators was quantitatively described. The analysis framework and the evaluation system were the basis for analysis the characteristic and management on the battery product service system.
(2) For the lead-acid product service system in mainland China, taking the system as the object to analyze the single system, and taking 2014 as the current year, this paper quantitatively identified the basic characteristics of the flows, internal indicators and external influence based on the hybrid flow analysis, and the impact level of the internal indicators to the external influence indicators. The results revealed that the large recycle rate of LABPSS was 0.317, the coupling coefficient of energy and material in the use stage was highest, which was 6~18 times that of other stages. The economic value of lead in LABPSS was 3~5 times higher than it in other products. After completing the service of per unit weight LAB, the lead ore consumption was 0.86t, the waste lead emission was 0.55t, the energy consumption was 2.77tce, the service was 18.9 million kW·h, and the vlue increment was -1.04 billion yuan. The emission rates of waste management and recycling and fabrication and manufacturing, and the large recycling rate had a higher influence on the external systems.
(3) Based on the static analysis of LABPSS and taking 1990-2016 as time period, the dynamic changes of the LABPSS were quantitatively analyzed. The dynamic analysis included the change of the hybrid flow, internal indicators and external influence indicators of the system, and the different dynamic evaluation calulation methods were adopted according to the type of the indicators. The results showd that in the material flows, the amount of secondary lead increased faster, and its annual increase rate was 32%. In the energy flows, the energy consumption of WMR grown faster, and its annual increase rate was 14%. In value flows, the value of the secondary lead and recycled waste battery increased faster, and its annual increase rate was 170%. Among the internal indicators, the large recycling grew from 0.119 to 0.470, and emission rates of production of primary lead (PPL) and F&M increased, the ranges were 0.066~0.006 and 0.194~0.133, respectielty, whose changes were beneficial to improve the external performance. All coupling coefficient of energy and material decreased overall, and the value and material coupling coefficient of various types of lead grew overall. Among the external influence, the relative lead ore consumption was reduced from 1.78t/t to 0.82t/t, the relative waste lead emissions decrease before increase, and the range was 0.55~1.03t/t. The relative energy consumption fluctuated in a small range (3.41~2.94tce/t). the relative value increment fell, the range was -0.373 ~ -1.193 billion yuan/t.
 (4) The same method for analzing the single system was applied to study the lead-acid-lithium-ion battery product service system. And the difference of the internal and external characteristics under the static and dynamic analysis. The results showed that the output of LAB in 2016 was about 3.25 times that of LIB, and the absolute service was 1.6 times that of LIB. As far as the elements selected in the study were concerned, the absolute impacts of the material resources, environment and energy resources produced were about 52 times, 66 times and 1.25 times, respectively. The absolute economic output of the LIBPSS was 1.25 times that of the LABPSS, and the overall performance of the LIBPSS was better than that of the LIBPSS. The output of LABPSS in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 were 183.7, 70.7, 13.2, and 4.5 times that of LIBPSS, respectively, that is, the growth rate of LIBPSS output was faster than that of LABPSS. The external influence increases with the increase in output, and the external influence of LABPSS was higher than that of LIBPSS, and that of the LIBPSS changed more faster than that of the LABPSS. 
 (5) By analyzing the development of battery downstream industries and the process of service substitution, the demand and its structure of batteries and the external influences were predicted, and the possible problems were identified. Based on the industry development plan and historical development, the research used a bottom-up method to predict the demend for different types of battery. And the structure of demand was also analyzed combined the rate at the LIB replace LAB. And the change of the external influence was predicted according to the production changes and increase in circulation. The results showed that the demend of LIB in will be 1.4, 2.5 and 5.3 times that of LAB in 2021, 2025 and 2030, respectively. Meanwhile, the proportion of batteries for new energy vechicles will increase from 42% to 71%. When the recycle rate of LAB is increased from 34.5% to 75%, a total of 7.37 million tons of lead ore will be saved, and the economic benefit will increase by 120.6billion yuan. When the recycle rate of LIB rises to 30%, the cumulative ore savings will be 330 thousand tons. The cumulative economic gains increased by 43.9 billion yuan. However, there may still be problems such as the tight relationship between resource supply and demand, the failure of a large number of waste batteries to be recycled, and the insufficient optimization of product structure.
(6) According to the stages of life-cycle of the element in the system and the integerated management system, the policies of stages in the two battery service systems were identified and analyzed. The results showed that the policies for LABPSS is superior to that of the LIBPSS in terms of quantity, coverage, and refinement. The main shortcomings in management are the lack of system life cycle management and environmental management lags behind the industry development, and the management of lithium-ion battery product service system lacks quantitative regulations on the production process lithium recovery rate, emission limit and resource consumption. To achieve the healthy and sustainable development of the battery industry, and protect the environment, a full life cycle of intergrated management system for battery product service system should be established based on the hybrid flow. And the product service structure should be adjusted to improve the overall performance of the battery product service system. Besides, the management of industrial phases should be highlighted to improve the overall operating efficiency of the system. What’s more, the improvement of key part of standardized management should be focused by combining the results of comprehensive analysis and current policies.