随着数学素养受到越来越多的关注，学生的概率素养也受到更多的重视。概率的应用日益广泛，概率论也具有重要而独特的学科价值，并且我国的课程标准对概率的学习和评价提出了新的要求。因此，本文构建概率素养评价的分析框架，编制适合我国数学课程的测试题目，探讨八年级学生概率素养的发展现状，为数学教育评价及改进教学提供参考。 本文主要分三个部分：(1)探讨概率素养的核心要素。通过分析我国数学课程标准等文献，讨论概率素养的内涵。概率素养包括三个方面的内容，一是能够掌握概率知识，二是形成对概率的认识、应用概率的意识，三是具有应用概率知识在具体情境中解决问题的能力；(2)编制以概率素养为导向的测试题目。根据情境理论、问题解决理论和认知结构理论，在测试题目编制上考虑三个维度：情景维度、知识维度和能力维度，考察学生在具体的情境中，如何解决数学问题。其中，情境维度分为个人的、学校的、社会的和学科的。知识维度包括五个方面：随机观念、概率含义、频率与概率、概率计算、概率预测。能力维度分为再现、联系、反思三个层次。通过探索题目编制的框架，较为科学地测量学生的概率素养；(3)对学生概率素养进行测量评价。选取北京市两所中学八年级学生为样本，分析探讨学生概率素养的现状、各能力水平的分布以及学生概率素养与其学业成绩的相关性等。最后，论文对概率素养的测量提出一些改进，为教学及学业评价提出若干建议和参考。

As mathematical literacy being more attention, probabilistic literacy was growing concerned. It's valuable to study probabilistic literacy of students because of the increasingly widespread application of probability , the new requirements of learning and evaluation proposed by mathematics curriculum standards and the important and unique value of probability in science. Therefore, it's necessary to construct the framework to evaluate probabilistic literacy of students, design the test subjects for eighth-grade students, analyze the development of probabilistic literacy, and provide some suggestions on teaching evaluation. This paper is divided into three parts: (1)The study on the core elements of probabilistic literacy through the analysis of mathematics curriculum standards. Probabilistic literacy includes three aspects: the probabilistic knowledge learning, the understanding and the application awareness about probability, and the capacity to solve problems in specific situation; (2)The preparation of test subjects about probabilistic literacy. According to situation theory, problem solving theory and cognitive structure theory, the preparation of the test questions considers three dimensions: situation, knowledge and capacity, and we use the test questions to evaluate the students how to solve mathematical problems in specific situation. The situation dimension contains personal, school, social, and subject. The knowledge dimension includes the consciousness of randomness, the conception of probability, the relationship between frequency and probability, the calculation about probability and the prediction using probability. And the capacity dimension is divided into three levels : reproduction, connection and reflection. It is the more scientific method to assess the probabilistic literacy according to research the framework of the test subjects; (3)The assessment of probabilistic literacy. In this part, the samples of the test are eighth-grade students in two secondary schools in Beijing. This paper analyzes the status of probabilistic literacy about eighth-grade students , the distribution of the ability level and the correlation between probabilistic literacy and academic achievement. The paper concludes with the recommendation for assessment about probabilistic literacy, probability teaching and academic achievement evaluation.