作为国民经济生产和城乡居民生活不可或缺的基础性物质资料，能源在支撑经济社会发展的同时也产生了明显的负外部性问题。由于能源利用相关活动是最主要的二氧化碳排放源，能源将是“2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和”工作的重点领域。理论上，能源消费碳排放量取决于能源消费总量、能源消费结构和碳捕捉、利用和封存（CCUS）三方面。其中，能源消费总量是最为基础的变量，非化石能源利用规模和CCUS应用规模均受制于能源消费总量。较低的能源消费量意味着更轻的碳减排压力，合理控制能源消费总量是实现能源领域碳减排的必然要求。但是，如果经济发展仍需要大量能源作为支撑，则可能导致经济目标与节能目标难以平衡的问题。因此，经济发展与能源消费能否解耦将是经济目标与节能目标能否平衡的关键。现有研究从能源消费总量角度研究能源消费与经济发展的耦合关系得到了不一致的结论。能源消费包括居民生活直接用能和生产用能，生产用能又可以基于隐含能源概念进一步分为消费品隐含能源消费、资本品隐含能源消费和出口品隐含能源消费。考虑到能源消费不同组成部分与经济发展的耦合关系可能存在异质性，基于能源消费总量进行研究可能无法充分捕捉经济发展对能源消费影响的内在机制，本文将从三大需求隐含能源视角全面考察能源消费与经济发展的耦合关系。本文的研究有助于拓展对能源消费与经济发展耦合关系的认知，可以为在“双碳”目标下如何合理控制能源消费总量提供科学参考，理论与实践意义兼具。

围绕三大需求隐含能源消费与经济发展耦合关系这一科学问题，本文首先构建非竞争型投入产出模型，利用OECD投入产出数据以及基于能源平衡表编制的分行业能源消费数据，对七国集团和中国、印度、巴西和韩国等四个新兴市场国家1995-2018年的三大需求隐含能源消费进行测算，并对各国三大需求隐含能源消费的时间变化趋势、生产用能构成和生活用能特征进行初步分析。在此基础上，运用耦合状态测度模型，对三大需求隐含能源消费与经济发展的耦合状态及其演化趋势进行探讨。更进一步地，基于理论分析以及阈值效应检验结果，对居民直接生活用能、消费品隐含能源消费建立静态阈值面板模型，对资本品隐含能源消费建立动态阈值面板模型，对出口品隐含能源消费建立固定效应面板模型，引入相关控制变量，检验经济发展对三大需求隐含能源消费的作用方向、大小及显著性，并对基准模型的回归结果进行稳健性检验。最后，基于前文定性、定量分析，在充分理解中国经济发展和三大需求隐含能源的耦合关系后，从三大需求隐含能源视角出发，对中国未来关键时间节点的能源消费变化趋势进行研判。

本文主要的研究结论包括：（1）经济发展与人均消费品隐含能源消费之间存在非线性关系。经济发展过程中，人均消费品隐含能源消费与经济发展的耦合程度趋于减弱。1995-2018年，随着经济的发展，人均消费品隐含能源消费与经济发展的耦合状态表现未由以未解耦、弱解耦为主向以强解耦为主演化。回归结果表明，经济发展与人均消费品隐含能源之间存在阈值效应。在人均GDP 低于15750.94国际元的低区制内，经济发展会推高人均消费品隐含能源消费，影响系数为0.573；当人均GDP高于15750.94国际元低于52995.13国际元时，经济发展对人均消费品隐含能源消费的影响系数降低至0.138；当人均GDP高于52995.13国际元，经济发展对人均消费品隐含能源消费的影响不再显著。（2）经济发展与人均资本品隐含能源消费之间存在非线性关系。当经济发展到一定水平，人均资本品隐含能源消费与经济发展的耦合程度会有所降低。1995-2018年，资本品隐含能源消费与经济发展的耦合状态由未解耦、弱解耦为主演化为在未解耦、弱解耦和强解耦间来回波动，表明人均资本品隐含能源消费与经济发展的耦合程度随着经济的发展有所减弱但未完全实现解耦。回归结果显示，在人均GDP低于32319.51国际元的低区制内，经济发展和人均资本品隐含能源消费耦合程度较高，资本品隐含能源消费弹性为0.875；当经济发展水平进入高区制时，经济发展对人均资本品隐含能源消费的影响趋于减弱，资本品隐含能源消费弹性降至0.833。（3）经济发展与人均出口品隐含能源消费的耦合关系不受经济发展水平的影响。1995-2018年，不论经济发展水平高低，各国经济发展与人均出口品隐含能源主要表现为弱解耦、未解耦状态。阈值效应检验和回归结果显示二者之间不存在阈值效应，为正相关关系。（4）经济发展与居民生活直接用能的耦合关系存在阶段性特征。回归结果显示，在人均GDP低于11529.34国际元的低区制内，经济发展对居民生活直接用能的影响并不显著，在越过这一阈值后，经济发展会增加居民生活直接用能。（5）目前，中国人均消费品隐含能源消费与资本品隐含能源消费仍处于低区制，人均居民生活直接用能已经越过阈值。基于对中国三大需求隐含能源消费未来走势的研判，结合权威国际组织对中国GDP增速和人口的预测值，得到2025年、2030年和2035年能源消费总量，分别为56.20、60.81和63.35亿吨标准煤。能源消费增速不断下降，2030-2035年为1.02%。

本文最后讨论了上述研究结果的政策启示，在相关结论的基础上对中国合理控制能源消费总量提出若干政策建议，并指出下一步亟待深化的研究方向。

Energy, as a necessary basic element for national economic production and the daily lives of urban and rural populations, promotes economic and social development, while produces evident negative externalities. Energy will be the focus area of the " having CO₂ emission peak by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060" endeavor because it is the largest source of CO2 emissions. The carbon emissions of energy consumption are theoretically determined by total energy consumption, energy consumption structure, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). The most fundamental variable is total energy consumption, since the scale of non-fossil energy utilization and the scope of CCUS application are both affected by it. Less energy consumption means less pressure to reduce carbon emissions, and appropriate control of the total consumption of energy is an unavoidable prerequisite to achieve carbon emission reduction in the energy field. However, if economic development continues to require a big amount of energy as a support, it may create a difficult balance between economic aims and energy conservation goals. As a result, whether economic development and energy consumption can be decoupled will be the key to the balance between economic goals and energy conservation goals. Existing research on the relationship between energy consumption and economic development from the standpoint of total energy consumption has shown different conclusions. Energy consumption includes household energy use and production energy use. Production energy use can be further divided into embodied energy in consumer goods, capital goods and export goods based on the concept of embodied energy. Given the possibility of heterogeneity in the coupling relationship between various components of energy consumption and economic development, research based on total energy consumption may not fully capture the internal mechanism of the impact of economic development on energy consumption. In this paper, the coupling relationship between energy consumption and economic development will be investigated from the perspective of embodied energy in three final demands. The research presented in this paper can help to broaden understanding of the relationship between energy consumption and economic development, as well as provide academic reference for how to control total energy consumption reasonably under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, which has both theoretical and practical implications.

Using OECD input-output data and energy consumption data compiled by energy balances, this paper constructed a non-competitive input-output model and calculated the embodied energy in three final demands of G7 countries and four emerging market countries (China, India, Brazil and Korea), from 1995 to 2018, and preliminarily analyzed the time variation trend of embodied energy in three final demands, the composition of production energy and the characteristics of household energy use in each country. On this basis, the coupling state between economic development and embodied energy in three demands and its evolution trend are discussed by using the decoupling model. Furthermore, combined with the theory of economic development and related theories of energy economics, the study investigates the mechanism of economic development on the embodied energy in three final demands. Based on the mechanism analysis and the threshold effect test results, a static threshold panel model for the direct energy consumption of residents and the embodied energy of consumer goods, a dynamic threshold panel model for the embodied energy of capital goods, and a fixed effect panel model for the embodied energy of export goods are established, and relevant control variables are included. The benchmark model's regression results were tested for robustness by trimming controlling variables, substituting core explanatory variable, and controlling endogeneity. These tests examined the direction, magnitude, and significance of the effects of economic development on the embodied energy in three final demands. After thoroughly comprehending the coupling relationship between China's economic development and the embodied energy in three final demands based on the qualitative and quantitative analysis mentioned above, this paper studies and evaluates the trend of China's future energy consumption from the perspective of the embodied energy in three final demands.

The main conclusions of this paper are: (1) There is a nonlinear relationship between economic development and the embodied energy per capita in consumer goods. In the process of economic development, the coupling degree between the embodied energy per capita in consumer goods and economic development tends to weaken. From 1995 to 2018, with the development of economy, the coupling state performance of embodied energy in consumer goods and economic development evolved from expansive negative decoupling and weak decoupling to strong decoupling. The regression results show that there is a threshold effect between economic development and per capita embodied energy consumer goods. In the low regime with per capita GDP lower than 15750.94 international dollar, economic development will increase the embodied energy in consumer goods, and the influence coefficient is 0.573. When per capita GDP is higher than 15750.94 international dollar and lower than 52995.13 international dollar, the influence coefficient of economic development on the embodied energy in consumer goods decreases to 0.138. When the per capita GDP is higher than 52995.13 international dollar, the impact of economic development on the embodied energy in consumer goods is no longer significant. (2) There is a nonlinear relationship between economic development and the embodied energy per capita in capital goods. When the economy develops to a certain level, the coupling degree between the embodied energy of capital goods per capita and economic development will be reduced. From 1995 to 2018, the coupling state of embodied energy in capital goods and economic development evolved from expansive negative decoupling and weak decoupling to fluctuating between expansive negative decoupling, weak decoupling and strong decoupling, indicating that the coupling degree of embodied energy in capital goods per capita and economic development has weakened with economic development, but not completely decoupled. The regression results show that, in the low regime with per capita GDP lower than 32319.51 international dollar, the coupling degree of economic development and the embodied energy in capital goods per capita is higher, and the elasticity of embodied energy in capital goods per capita is 0.875. When the level of economic development enters the high regime, the impact of economic development on the embodied energy in capital goods tends to weaken, the elasticity drops to 0.833. (3) The coupling relationship between economic development and the embodied energy in exports is not affected by the level of economic development. From 1995 to 2018, regardless of the level of economic development, the economic development of each country and the embodied energy per capita in exports showed a weak decoupling and expansive negative decoupling state. The results of threshold effect test and regression show that there is no threshold effect between the two, which is a positive correlation. (4) The coupling relationship between economic development and residents' direct energy use has stage characteristics. The regression results show that economic development has no significant impact on residents' direct energy use in the low regime where GDP per capita is lower than 11529.34 international dollar. After crossing this threshold, economic development will increase residents' direct energy use. (5) The per capita embodied energy in consumer goods and capital goods in China is still in the low regime, and the direct energy used by residents per capita has already crossed the threshold. Based on the study and evaluation of the future trend of China's embodied energy in three final demands, combined with the forecast of China's GDP growth and population from authoritative international organizations, the total energy consumption of China in 2025, 2030 and 2035 is 56.20, 60.81 and 6.335 million tons of standard coal equivalent respectively. The growth rate of energy consumption continues to decline, reducing to 1.02% in 2030-2035.

Finally, this study offers some policy recommendations for the reasonable control of China's total energy consumption based on the relevant findings, and discusses research prospect.