国际收支是指一个国家在一定时期内由对外经济往来、对外债权债务清算而引起的所有货币收支。国际收支的变化不仅可以反映本国经济与全球经济在发展中互动特征与阶段的变化，还反映了一国经济结构转型升级的过程。我国的国际收支格局经历了连续15年的“双顺差”，然后在2014年转为经常账户和资本账户的“一顺一逆”，并于2018年第一季度，经常账户首次出现大规模逆差。未来我国的经常账户可能呈现出短期顺逆差交替、中期转为持续逆差的格局，非储备性质金融账户可能呈现出余额变动不定的特点。这就意味着，中国未来有些时候可能会面临国际收支双赤字。过去十多年，中国宏观经济的决策环境是建立在国际收支双顺差基础上的。国际收支格局的转变，未来会显著改变中国宏观经济政策的决策环境。那么，中国国际收支格局的转变对人民币汇率、货币政策框架以及资产价格会带来哪些影响？研究这些问题具有重要的理论和现实意义，这也是本文致力解答的问题。 本文综合运用理论和实证的研究方法，系统的研究了国际收支变化的宏观效应，具体包括国际收支的变化对汇率、货币供给和资产价格波动的影响。首先，本文在汇率的国际收支理论模型的基础上，采用跨国面板的实证方法系统的研究了整体国际收支以及其各个项目变化对汇率的影响，并采用分时间段检验、分不同类别国家检验和分样本检验等方法进行稳健性检验，研究结果发现：第一，整体国际收支差额的变化会对汇率产生显著的影响，其影响机制主要通过经常账户的变化。第二，无论是2008年国际金融危机之前还是危机之后，国际收支变化都会对汇率产生显著的影响，而且整体上国际金融危机之后对汇率的影响幅度更大。第三，不管是发达经济体亦或是新兴市场经济体，一国汇率都会被国际收支的变化而影响，而且整体上新兴市场经济体国际收支变化对汇率的影响幅度更大。第四，当经常账户转为逆差之后，任何形式的资本流动都会对汇率产生影响，汇率对资本流动的变化变的更加敏感。 然后，本文在厘清国际收支变化对货币创造影响理论机制的基础上，采用非限制VAR模型研究了中国的国际收支变化对货币供给的影响。国际收支的变化不仅会通过外汇的供需影响货币供给，还可以通过影响商业银行的行为影响货币创造。国际收支双顺差格局的消失使得中国的货币派生机制发生变化，央行不得不探寻新的基础货币投放方式。实证研究发现：第一，国际收支顺差的增加会导致广义货币增速的上升。第二，货币供给对来自经常账户和金融账户冲击的响应都较为显著，但经常账户的显著性要高于金融账户。而且，来自经常账户冲击的响应强度要强于金融账户。这可能主要是由于经常账户趋势性较强，在样本期间常年保持顺差，是过去我国基础货币投放的主要渠道。未来随着我国经常账户呈现双向波动，我国基础货币也由被动投放转为主动管理。第三，对来自国际收支变化的冲击，基础货币响应的强度和持续的时间都要高于货币乘数。 其次，本文在阐明国际收支变化对股票市场影响的理论基础上，采用PVAR模型实证研究国际收支变化对股票市场波动率的影响。从理论上来看，国际收支的变化会通过多种渠道影响股票市场，具体包括货币供给渠道、利率渠道、汇率渠道和预期渠道。实证研究发现：无论是整体的国际收支变化还是经常账户和非储备性质金融账户的变化，都会对股票市场波动率产生显著的影响。当经常账户波动较大时，会放大非储备性质金融账户变化对股票市场波动率的影响。展望未来，中国经常账户可能呈现出短期顺逆差交替、中期转为持续逆差，具有较强顺周期和高波动性的资本流动将会显著放大中国股票市场的波动程度。 上述的实证研究发现经常账户是国际收支变化产生宏观效应的主要渠道，虽然非储备性质的金融账户变化也是一个重要因素，但经常账户通常会起到放大或者缓冲金融账户变化的作用，尤其是当经常账户波动较大或者顺逆差交替时。因此，最后本文以经常账户为主要研究对象，采用国别案例的方法分析了欧元区、加拿大、印度、印度尼西亚和阿根廷这五个经济体经常账户由持续顺差转为逆差的原因及影响。我们研究发现：第一，经常账户逆差状态的持续通常是由货物贸易或服务贸易的逆差导致，背后是国内产业结构的变化。第二，经常账户由顺差转为逆差，意味着国内固定资本形成总额超过国民储蓄，该国将更加依赖外部融资，这会加剧本国金融市场的脆弱性。第三，发达经济体由于其产业结构多元化，科学技术水平较高，受到经常账户负面冲击后对国内产出的影响相对有限。但新兴经济体由于产业结构不平衡，受到冲击后很难自我修复，为了刺激经济只能通过大举借债的方式，这为债务危机的发生埋下了隐患。 因此，为缓解国际收支格局转变带来的潜在宏观金融风险，我国应该采取如下措施：其一，优化产业结构，提升出口产品的附加值和国际竞争力，降低内外部贸易红利消逝对出口的不利影响；其二，致力于提高海外投资的净回报率，鼓励更多民营企业到海外投资。通过提高海外投资的净收益，优化国际收支的结构，降低经常账户转为逆差的压力；其三，适时推进人民币汇率的市场化改革。在具体实施时，可以适当逐渐的增大市场因素在人民币汇率中间价形成机制中的权重，等到时机成熟时再完全放开，这样有助于防止人民币汇率的过度波动，充分发挥汇率对国际收支的调节作用；其四，继续推进货币政策转型，在进行数量型调控时，更应该注重修复价格型调控的传导机制，落实利率双轨并一轨；其五，加强跨境资本的宏观审慎管理，鼓励国际资本的长期战略投资，坚决遏制“热钱”的快进快出。

The balance of payments refers to the income and expenditure of all countries in a certain period of time. These revenues and expenditures are usually caused by foreign economic transactions and the liquidation of external debts. Changes in the balance of payments can not only reflect the changes in the characteristics and stages of the interaction between the domestic economy and the global economy, but also can reflect the process of economic restructuring and upgrading of a country. China's balance of payments experienced a “double surplus” for 15 years, but in 2014 the capital account turned into a deficit, then in the first quarter of 2018 the current account also first appeared in a large-scale deficit. In the short term, China's current account may alternate between surplus and loss. In the medium term, the current account will continue deficiting. In addition, the change in balance will be a feature of non-reserve financial accounts. This means that China may face a double balance of payments in the future. In the past few decades, the balance of payments surplus has been the basis of China's macroeconomic decision-making environment. The shift in the balance of payments pattern will significantly change the decision-making environment for China's macroeconomic policies. Therefore, if China's international balance of payments pattern changes, what impact will it have on the RMB exchange rate, monetary policy framework and asset prices? We believe that studying these issues has important theoretical and practical significance. And this article answers these questions. In this paper, methods theoretical and empirical methods combined.The author systematically studies the macro effects of changes in the balance of payments, which includes the effects of changes in the balance of payments on exchange rates, money supply, and asset price volatility. First of all, this paper is based on the theoretical model of international balance of payments. The author uses transnational Panel datas of empirical methods to study the impact of the balance of payments and the changes in its various projects on exchange rates. Further, the author uses a time-segment test, a sub-category country test and a sub-sample test to conduct a robustness test. The study founds that: First, changes in the balance of payments will have a significant impact on the exchange rate, and its impact mechanism is mainly through changes to the current account.Second, whether before or after the crisis, changes in the balance of payments will have a significant impact on the exchange rate. And the impact on the exchange rate is greater after the pre-crisis crisis. Third, whether it is a developed economy or an emerging market economy, changes in the balance of payments will have a significant impact on the exchange rate. Overall, the impact of changes in the balance of payments in emerging market economies on the exchange rate is greater. Fourth, when the current account turns into a deficit, any form of capital flow will have an impact on the exchange rate. Exchange rates are more sensitive to changes in capital flows. Then, this paper is based on theoretical mechanism of the impact of changes in the balance of payments on monetary creation. Also, the unrestricted VAR model is used to study the impact of China's balance of payments changes on the money supply. Changes in the balance of payments will not only affect the money supply through the supply and demand of foreign exchange, but also affect the creation of money by affecting the behavior of commercial banks.The disappearance of the balance of payments surplus has changed the Chinese currency derivation mechanism.The central bank has to explore new ways to deliver the base money. The empirical research found that: First, the increase in surplus will lead to an increase in the growth rate of broad money. Second, both current accounts and financial accounts can impact the money supply. But the current account is more prominent than the financial account. Moreover, the response from the current account shock is stronger than the financial account. The above conclusion may be due to the strong trend of the current account. The current account is the main channel for the placement of China's base currency and has been a surplus during the sample period. In the future, with the two-way fluctuation of China's current account, China's base currency has also changed from passive to active management. Third, in response to the impact of changes in the balance of payments, the intensity and duration of the base currency response are higher than the money multiplier. Thirdly, this paper studies the impact of changes in the balance of payments on the stock market. And the author uses the PVAR model to empirically study the impact of changes in the balance of payments on stock market volatility. In theory, changes in the balance of payments will affect the stock market through multiple channels. These include money supply channels, interest rate channels, exchange rate channels, and expected channels. Empirical studies have found that changes in the international balance of payments, current account and non-reserve financial account had a significant impact on the volatility of the stock market.When the current account fluctuates greatly, the impact of non-reserve financial account changes on stock market volatility is most obvious.It is expected that China's current account may have a deficit in the short-term and a deficit in the medium term.And capital flows with strong procyclicality and high volatility will significantly increase the volatility of the Chinese stock market. The above empirical researches find that the current account is the main channel for the macro effect of changes in the balance of payments.While non-reservative financial account changes are also an important factor, current accounts often act to amplify or buffer changes in financial accounts, especially when the current account fluctuates significantly or the volatility is alternating.Therefore, in the end this article takes the current account as the main research object. The author used country-based research to analyze the causes and effects of the current account of the five economies: the Eurozone, Canada, India, Indonesia, and Argentina. The study found that: First, the current account deficit persists because of the trade deficit in goods or services. This also reflects the domestic industrial structure of the country. Second, the current account shifts from a surplus to a deficit, meaning that the total domestic fixed capital formation exceeds national savings. The country will be more dependent on external financing, which will increase the fragility of financial markets. Third, because the developed economies have diversified industrial structures and high levels of science and technology. Domestic output in developed countries can withstand the negative impact of the current account. However, due to the imbalanced industrial structure, emerging economies are hard to repair themselves after being hit. In order to stimulate the economy, it is only possible to borrow heavily, which has laid a hidden danger for the debt crisis. Therefore, in order to alleviate the potential macro financial risks brought about by the transformation of the international balance of payments pattern, China should take the following measures: First, optimize the industrial structure, increase the added value and international competitiveness of export products, and reduce adverse effects of disappearance of internal and external trade dividends on exports.Second, increase the net return on overseas investment and encourage more private enterprises to invest overseas. By increasing the net income of overseas investment, optimize the structure of the balance of payments, and reduce the pressure on the current account to turn into a deficit; Third, timely promote the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate. In the specific implementation, it is possible to gradually increase the weight of market factors in the formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate intermediate price, and then fully let go when the time is ripe, which will help prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate and give full play to the adjustment effect of exchange rate on the balance of payments. Fourth, continue to promote the transformation of monetary policy. In the case of quantitative regulation, we should pay more attention to repair the transmission mechanism of price-based regulation. Fifth, strengthen the macro-prudential management of cross-border capital. Encourage long-term strategic investment in international capital and resolutely curb the rapid entry and exit of "hot money."