能源安全与气候变化是目前人类社会面临的两大挑战，如何实现能源-经济-环境三个子系统之间的综合平衡与协调发展，应该从系统的观念出发去研究。低碳技术是发展低碳经济的关键，合理规划低碳技术发展路线图对行业低碳发展有重要指导作用。本论文基于技术成熟度、技术市场占有率及技术经济发展情况建立低碳技术数据库；根据技术生命周期理论、技术成本、碳排放目标约束设置三种技术组合情景，同时根据我国实际情况设置三种社会经济发展情景；进而，利用系统动力学模型STELLA，构建火电行业碳减排系统动力学模型，并通过模拟三种社会经济-技术组合情景，即超强发展-弱减排情景、新常态-强减排情景、新常态-弱减排情景，对碳排放量及碳排放强度等因素进行模拟；通过发电量反推煤炭消耗量进而计算煤炭消耗成本即电量成本，加之基于技术成本曲线的技术本身成本即容量成本，得到综合成本；进而根据碳减排量和成本结果进行碳减排成本效果分析，核算出各技术单位二氧化碳减排成本。基于以上研究内容，得出以下结论：1、二氧化碳排放峰值将于2025年达到；2、三种情景中单位二氧化碳减排成本差异主要是由CCS技术和IGCC技术比例的变化所致，从系统的观念出发，适当提高CCS和IGCC所占比例有益于以低成本取得较好的减排效果；3、低碳技术的比重调高就意味着高投入和高成本，因此追求最佳减排效果的前提是对低碳技术的成本最优化核算，由于成本原因，IGCC 技术和CCS技术的发展具有一定局限性，需要更加严格的碳税政策支持才能得到广泛应用。基于此，以碳减排技术成本最低为目标，在单位GDP二氧化碳排放量约束下，得到最优技术组合。同时，提出确保该低碳技术发展路线图的配套政策建议：政府应对减排潜力小甚至无潜力的技术加以限制，采用征收碳税等措施降低其市场占有率；对减排潜力大的技术加以扶持，将其研发、市场化、推广应用提高到国家科技战略层面，对采用的企业给予资金补贴，逐步提高其市场占有率。

Energy security and climate change are the two major challenges facing human society, and it’s should be researched from the concept of system that how to realize comprehensive balance and coordinated development among Energy-Economy-Environment. Low-carbon technology is the key to the development of low-carbon economy, and rational planning of the development of low-carbon technology roadmap plays an important role in guiding low-carbon industry development. This study establishes the low-carbon technologies databases based on technology maturity, market share and the situation of social and economic development; And then sets 3 different technology combination scenarios according to the technology life cycle theory, cost constraints, carbon emissions targets and current policy, sets 3 different economic and social development scenarios according to the actual situation in China at the same time; Establishes the carbon reduction model based on system dynamics model STELLA, and simulates carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of three kinds of economic and social development - technology combination scenarios; Calculates the cost of coal consumption by power generation, then calculates carbon emissions reduction cost of each scenario combined with the technology capacity cost based on cost curve.The paper comes to the following conclusions: the carbon dioxide emission reduction costs’ difference is mainly caused by the proportion changes of CCS and IGCC technology, raise the proportion of CCS and IGCC could benefit to achieving good reduction effects at low costs; The higher proportion of low carbon technology means higher investments and costs, so optimization calculation of low carbon technology cost is the premise of the best emission reduction effect; Due to cost reasons, the development of IGCC and CCS technology has some limitations, more strict carbon tax policies are needed to support their widely using. At last, the research defines the best low-carbon technology roadmap of thermal power industry over the next 30 years under the constraints of carbon emission reduction targets in all stages. On that basis, proposes the matching policy recommendations to ensure the development of low-carbon technology roadmap: the government should adopt carbon tax and other measures to reduce technologies’ market share of which are of small reduction potential even no potential; and support technologies with great emissions reduction potential, raise their research, market-oriented, application to the level of national science and technology strategy, give subsidies for enterprises and gradually increase their market shares.