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中文题名:

 中美宏观经济政策协调研究    

姓名:

 和晋予    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 chi    

学科代码:

 020101    

学科专业:

 政治经济学    

学生类型:

 博士    

学位:

 经济学博士    

学位年度:

 2008    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

研究方向:

 宏观经济管理    

第一导师姓名:

 李晓西    

第一导师单位:

 北京师范大学    

提交日期:

 2008-05-31    

答辩日期:

 2008-05-31    

外文题名:

 A Study on the Coordination of Macroeconomic Policy Between China and USA    

中文关键词:

 经济相互依存 ; 国际经济政策协调 ; 中美宏观经济联动模型 ; 财政政策 ; 货币政策 ; 博弈分析    

中文摘要:

国际宏观经济政策协调是指国家之间协调各自宏观经济政策以消除政策对彼此的负面影响、实现本国经济目标的行为。对中国而言,加强和美国的国际宏观政策协调有助于平衡国内经济结构、促进经济平稳发展。本文围绕中美宏观经济联动及政策协调这一主线,通过构建理论模型、计量模型和博弈模型进行研究。宏观经济政策协调的理论基础是两国间相互依存理论,是开放的宏观经济学体系的一部分。在借鉴以往关于国际经济政策协调理论研究的基础上,本文构建了两国宏观经济政策协调理论模型,在此理论框架上构建了中美宏观经济联动的计量模型,包括3个模块和19个方程,对中美宏观经济联动情况和两国宏观经济政策模拟冲击进行分析。根据中美财政政策、货币政策对两国GDP和CPI冲击的模拟结果,进行了两国宏观经济政策的静态博弈和动态扩展博弈分析。而后对加强两国宏观经济政策协调提出了相关建议。本文主要观点是:首先,中美宏观经济政策协调是建立在一个复杂的经济联动机制基础之上,中美两国间的进出口、资本流动、政策传导等构成了一个复杂体系。第二,中美财政政策和货币政策的相互冲击具有鲜明特点:美国在政策传导中仍处于强势地位;两国财政政策对GDP的影响和货币政策对CPI的影响较为显著;两国政策搭配和协调的效果要比一国或单一政策效果好。第三,中美财政政策和货币政策协调实质上是一个动态的政策博弈过程,选取协调手段、把握协调时机非常重要。本文在以下三个方面作了创新性的探索。一是扩展了国际经济互动理论模型,使之变为两国和两国之外的其它国家之间的经济互动模型,同时在模型中充分考虑了开放经济下国家货币政策的独立性问题;二是尝试运用计量手段,建立起两国间经济互动模型并对政策变动带来的冲击进行定量分析;三是尝试将两国政策冲击模拟效果作为博弈的收益分布引进模型,对政策博弈尝试有定量和定性相结合的分析和描述。这三点探索使三个模型成为一个逻辑上有机联系的整体。

外文摘要:

The coordination of international macroeconomic policy refers those activities existed between countries that coordinate their own macroeconomic policy to eliminate the negative impact which caused by the policy for each other. To strengthen the coordination of macroeconomic policy with USA will promote to balance the domestic economic structure and accelerate the steady development of economic for China. This dissertation launched the research with the center of economic interaction and policy coordination between China and USA based on the establishment of the Theory Model, Measurement Model and Game Model.The coordination of macroeconomic policy is a part of open macroeconomics system based on the interdependence theory between two countries. The dissertation has designed the Theory Model of macroeconomic policy coordination between two countries with the researching of existed coordination theories of international economic policy, and further framed the Measure Model of macroeconomic interaction between China and USA, including 3 modules and 19 equations, to analysis the macroeconomic interaction and the simulated impaction for each other between China and USA. According to the results of simulated impact that Fiscal Policy and the Monetary Policy reacted on the both GDP and CPI for each other between China and USA, this dissertation has analyzed static game and dynamic expansion game within those two counties, and advised how to strengthen the coordination of macroeconomic policy for two countries.The first main point of this dissertation is that the coordination of macroeconomic policy for China and USA is built on a complex mechanism of economic interaction which consisted of the imports and exports, capital flows, policy transmission and so on. Second, the mutual impact for China and USA because of their own Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy has distinct characteristics: USA is still in a strong position with its policy transmission, Fiscal Policy’s impaction on GDP and Monetary Policy’s impaction on CPI is significant for both two countries. The benefits of combined and coordinated policy of two countries are better than one country’s policy or separated policy. Third, the substance of coordination of Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy for China and USA, is a dynamic process of Policy Game, selection of the coordination method and adequate opportunity is very important.This dissertation researched with innovation in three areas. First of all, expanded the Theory Model of international economic interaction and make it became the Economic Interaction Model for two countries and between these two countries and others. And the Model has taken full account of the independence of national Fiscal Policy in an open economy. Second, this dissertation has tried to establish an Interaction Model between two countries with the measure methods, and measured impaction with the quantitative analysis when policy has changed. The third is tried to take the results of simulated impact of two countries policy account into the Model as distribution of Game’s income, analyze and descript the Policy Game with the quantitative and qualitative analysis. These three innovations made those three Models linked as a whole in logical.

参考文献总数:

 0    

馆藏地:

 图书馆学位论文阅览区(主馆南区三层BC区)    

馆藏号:

 博020101/0802    

开放日期:

 2008-05-31    

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