“中等收入陷阱”的概念自2007年被提出以后，学术界就对此非常感兴趣。关于中国是否落入“中等收入陷阱”，学术界存在不同的观点，综合各种因素，本文认为现在就断定中国已经落入“中等收入陷阱”尚为时过早。但是中国在经济经历了十几年的高速增长之后，很多问题开始凸显：经济增长模式面临转型升级、经济发展不均衡、贫富差距问题、自主创新能力不够强以及资源与环境的制约等等，这些问题使中国面临落入“中等收入陷阱”的危险。 国际上其他国家在跨越“中等收入陷阱”的过程中，既有成功的经验，也有失败的教训，这些经验和教训值得中国借鉴和吸收。本文选取了韩国作为成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”的典型，分析了韩国能够成功进入高收入国家行列的原因：适时调整产业结构，适应经济发展；不断进行技术革新、创新驱动后来居上；高素质的劳动力为经济发展提供保障；由政府政策主导向市场主导转变；积极改善社会福利，促进社会公平。在跨越失败的国家中，本文以巴西为例，探讨了巴西一直在中等收入水平徘徊、未能进入高收入国家行列的原因：过度依赖自然资源、产业结构升级慢；资源配置效率低下；研发创新基础薄弱、科技水平不高；发展不均衡导致的贫富差距问题等，这些问题有些也是中国在实现跨越的过程中需要特别注意的。 中国面临着落入“中等收入陷阱”的风险，在参考国际经验和教训的同时，本文结合中国自身的国情，提出了中国避免“中等收入陷阱”风险需要以新发展理念为指导的观点。新发展理念从五个方面对中国经济未来的发展提出了要求，是新时代下引领中国经济跨越“中等收入陷阱”的指导思想。本文从实践路径方面探索了新发展理念如何引领中国经济跨越“中等收入陷阱”，提出创新发展理念引领中国经济发展动力升级、协调发展理念引领中国经济结构转变、绿色发展引领中国经济生态效益凸显、开放发展引领中国开放水平的提升、共享发展引领经济发展成果公平分配。以上五个方面探索了新发展理念如何引领中国经济跨越“中等收入陷阱”。

Since the concept of “middle income trap” was put forward, it has been widely discussed in the economics field. Regarding whether China falls into the “middle income trap”, there are different views in the academic world. Combining various factors, this paper thinks it is too early to conclude that China has fallen into the “middle income trap”. However, having experienced rapid growth for decades, China’s economy is faced up with many problems: the economic growth model faces transformation and upgrading, uneven development of economy, the income gap between the rich and the poor, the lack of independent innovation capability, and the constraints of resources and the environment. These problems put China at risk of falling into the “middle income trap”. In the process of crossing the “middle income trap”, other countries in the world have both successful experiences and lessons of failure. These experiences and lessons are worthy of reference and absorption by China. This paper selects South Korea as a model for successfully crossing the “middle income trap” and analyzes why South Korea can successfully enter the ranks of high-income countries: adjust the industrial structure in a timely manner to adapt to economic development; continue to carry out technological innovation and innovation to drive the future; high-quality labor force provides protection for economic development; government policy-led to market-oriented transformation; actively improve social welfare and promote social equity. In countries that have failed across the country, this article uses Brazil as an example to explore why Brazil has been at a middle-income level and has failed to enter the ranks of high-income countries: Over-reliance on natural resources, slow industrial structure upgrade; low efficiency of resource allocation; weak foundation of R&D and innovation, low level of science and technology; gap between rich and poor caused by uneven development, etc. Some of these problems are also needed to pay special attention by China in the process of achieving leapfrogging. There is possibility that China will fall into the “middle income trap” for economic problems. While referring to international experience and lessons, this paper combines China's own national conditions and puts forward the view that China should avoid the risk of “middle income trap” guided by the New Development Concept. The new development concept puts forward the requirements for the future development of China's economy from five aspects, and is the guiding ideology for leading the Chinese economy to cross the "middle income trap" in the new era. This paper explores how the new development concept leads the Chinese economy to cross the “middle income trap” from the practical path, the concept of innovative development should upgrade the economic driver of China, and the concept of coordinated development guide the transformation of China’s economic structure and the concept of green development should lead to ecodevelopment, the concept of open development promotes the development of China’s openness, the concept of sharing development leads the fair distribution of economic development results, From the above five aspects, it explores how the new development concept leads the Chinese economy to cross the “middle income trap”