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中文题名:

 俄罗斯灵活介入叙利亚危机政策研究(2015—2018年)    

姓名:

 谢炳月    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 中文    

学科代码:

 030207    

学科专业:

 国际关系    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 法学硕士    

学位类型:

 学术学位    

学位年度:

 2018    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 政府管理学院    

研究方向:

 大国关系、区域研究    

第一导师姓名:

 李兴    

第一导师单位:

 北京师范大学政府管理学院    

提交日期:

 2018-06-13    

答辩日期:

 2018-05-29    

外文题名:

 The Research on the Russia’s Flexible Intervention Policy Towards Syria Crisis (2015-2018)    

中文关键词:

 俄罗斯 ; 灵活介入政策 ; 叙利亚危机 ; 俄叙关系    

中文摘要:
叙利亚位于“新月沃地”的西段,地处中东的核心区域,地缘位置十分重要,历来都是兵家必争之重镇。2011年叙利亚危机爆发,自此开始了长达数年的战乱。叙利亚政府岌岌可危,国内各反动派割据林立,叙利亚国内局势的动荡成为极端组织滋生的土壤,2013年,极端组织建立“伊斯兰国”,恐怖主义在叙利亚不断蔓延并大有外溢之势。动荡的叙利亚成为域内外大国战略博弈的角斗场,伊朗、沙特、以色列、土耳其、美国、俄罗斯等国纷纷摩拳擦掌,你方唱罢我登场。叙利亚境内局势风谲云诡,域内外力量利益分歧严重,博弈不断,使叙利亚危机逐渐成为国际社会“难解之题”,甚至关乎中东地区权力格局、国际体系的重塑与变迁。 中东地区历来都是美俄之间博弈的重要战场,自冷战时期,双方就在此地区拉开长达数十年的战略博弈。苏联解体之后,俄罗斯在中东地区实行战略收缩,叙利亚成为俄罗斯在中东地区唯一的战略盟友,巴沙尔政府成为俄罗斯在中东地区的战略红线。因此在叙利亚危机爆发之初,俄罗斯就积极介入。但是,叙利亚危机局势之动荡、牵涉域内外力量之复杂,使俄罗斯前期的介入成果并不丰硕。转折点出现在2015年9月,巴沙尔政府邀请俄罗斯出兵叙利亚,以“打击极端组织”的名义军事介入叙利亚危机,自此之后俄罗斯逐渐掌握在叙利亚的主动权。 本文从“灵活介入”的视角出发,对俄罗斯此次介入政策进行分析。文章第一部分先对“灵活介入”这一概念进行解析。第二部分和第三部分从历史关系、介入原因对俄罗斯此次介入活动进行背景梳理。第四部分主要分析此次俄罗斯采取全方位、多层次的介入政策:军事上积极介入,在打击极端组织的同时保全巴沙尔政府;外交上积极拉拢地区盟友伊朗、伊拉克、黎巴嫩,打造“什叶派之弧”,甚至分化西方的传统盟友土耳其;政治上,积极推动叙利亚的政治谈判进程,构建阿斯塔纳和谈,推动召开索契叙利亚全国对话大会。最后,以“灵活介入”这一角度对俄罗斯此次介入政策进行评估。纵观此次俄罗斯的外交活动,与历来的介入政策相比突出了“灵活介入”的特点:战略目标明确、介入方式多样、政策灵活。灵活的介入政策让俄罗斯此次收获颇丰,以有限的资源获取最大的收益:俄罗斯不仅打击了极端组织,保住了巴沙尔政府,而且还在中东的博弈场上拔得头筹,进一步增强了其战略影响力。
外文摘要:
Syria is located in the west of the Fertile Crescent,the core area of the Middle East,which of the Geographical position is very important.and it is always the critical town for the military. In the year of 2011,the Syrian crisis was broke out,and the Syrian crisis broke out was last for many years,The Syrian government was in danger, and the Syrian territory was divided by the domestic reactions,thus,Syria became the soil of the extreme organization. In 2013, extreme organization established “Islamic State”,and the terrorism force had spread and spill over the Syria. The turbulent Syria became the game field of the Inside and outside dominant country: Iran、Saudi Arabia 、Israel、Turkey、America and Russia one after another interrupted the Syria crisis, The situation in Syria is extremely rampant,the interest of the Inside and outside dominant country was Severe different,and games was extremely fierce,and the Syrian crisis gradually became a World problem,even was related to the Power pattern of the Middle East and the remolding ,change of the International system. The Middle East is always the important game field of America-Russia. Since the cold war period,both sides conducted a decades-long strategic game . After the Disintegration of the Soviet Union,Russia conducted the Strategic contraction policy,and Syria became the only one ally of the Russia in the Middle East,and the Bashar Assad government is the red line of the Russia. Therefore, at the start of the Syria crisis,Russia interrupted the crisis. However,because of the turbulent situation,complex interests involvemen,he results of Russia’s earlier interventions were not fruitful.The turning point appeared in September 2015.,the Bashar government invited Russia to send troops to Syria,and interrupt Syrian crisis in the name of “Striking against extremist organizations.” Since then Russia has gradually taken the initiative in Syria. This article mainly analysis Russia’s involvement policy from the perspective of “Flexible involvement” .The first part mainly analyzes the concept of "flexible intervention".Then,The second and the third part Introduce the background of Russia’s action from the historical relations and the reason of involvement.The fourth part mainly analyzes that Russia has adopted an all-dimensional and multi-level intervention policy:at the military level,Russia conduct positive military policy to save the Bashar government and striking extremist organizations; at the diplomatic level,Russia actively draws up regional allies Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon to create a”Arc of Shiites”,and even split western traditional allies Turkey;at the political level,Russia actively promotes Syria’s political negotiation process,and built Astana Peace Talk and Syria National Dialogue Conference. At the end of article,it analyzed and summed up characteristics of Russia’s intervention policy from the perspective of “Flexible involvement” :clear strategic goals, multiple intervention methods, and flexible policies.The flexible intervention policy enabled Russia to gain a lot and obtain the biggest benefit with limited resources: Russia not only attacked extremist organizations, but also preserve the Bashar government, and it also won the top spot in the game field in the Middle East,further,it also enhance Russia’s strategic influence.
参考文献总数:

 96    

作者简介:

 谢炳月,国际关系硕士研究生,研究方向为大国关系、区域研究    

馆藏号:

 硕030207/18002    

开放日期:

 2019-07-09    

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