随着世界经济全球化、贸易自由化的不断加深，国际资本流动日趋频繁。短期资本作为国际资本中最为活跃的部分，具有规模庞大、流动性高、易变性强的特点，更容易对一国金融市场和实体经济造成不利影响。因此，探究短期国际资本流动的影响因素，具有重要的现实价值。

本文基于“推动-拉动”因素分析框架，选取2000—2021年全球61个国家和地区的季度面板数据，运用固定效应模型和系统GMM方法，研究新兴经济体和发达经济体短期国际资本流动的影响因素。为深入研究短期资本受到冲击后的反应，构建面板VAR模型，考察全球波动性、全球流动性、国内经济增长和国内利率对短期国际资本流动的动态影响。

基于固定效应模型和系统GMM方法的结果显示，新兴经济体和发达经济体短期国际资本流动的影响因素既存在共性，又存在差异。相同之处在于，无论对新兴经济体还是发达经济体，国际利率、国内经济增长、国内汇率预期和国内金融发展程度都是重要的正向因素，全球波动性则是重要的负向因素。不同之处主要有两点：（1）对新兴经济体而言，经常账户状况是重要的拉动因素，而这一因素对发达经济体的作用则完全不显著；（2）新兴经济体的全球波动性、全球流动性和国际利率均高度显著，而这三个因素对于发达经济体仅在部分方法下显著，而且显著性不高。

面板VAR模型表明：（1）当面板VAR系统受到冲击后，无论对新兴经济体还是发达经济体，短期国际资本流动的响应方向几乎一致；（2）新兴经济体的短期国际资本波动主要受到推动因素的影响，其全球波动性和全球流动性的累计方差贡献度达到17.9%，而国内经济增长和国内利率的的累计方差贡献度为4.6%；（3）发达经济体全球波动性和全球流动性的累计方差贡献度仅为3.8%，远小于新兴经济体，国内经济增长对发达经济体短期国际资本波动的贡献较为突出。

最后，基于本文的实证结果，为新兴经济体、发达经济体和国际金融机构提供针对短期国际资本流动的管理建议。

With the deepening of world economic globalization and trade liberalization, international capital flows have become increasingly frequent. As the most active part of international capital, short-term capital has the characteristics of large scale, high liquidity and strong volatility, and is more likely to have a negative impact on a country's financial market and real economy. Therefore, exploring the factors of short-term capital flows has important practical value..

Based on the "push-pull" factors analysis framework, this paper selects quarterly panel data from 61 countries and regions around the world from 2000 to 2021, and uses fixed-effect models and systematic GMM methods to study the factors in emerging and advanced economies. In order to deeply study the response of short-term capital after being impacted, a panel vector autoregressive model(PVAR) is constructed to investigate the impact of global volatility, global liquidity, domestic economic growth and domestic interest rates on short-term international capital flows.

Empirical results based on fixed-effect models and systematic GMM methods show that the factors influencing short-term capital flows in emerging and advanced economies have both similarity and differences. The similarity is that, for both emerging and advanced economies, international interest rates, domestic economic growth, exchange rate expectations and financial development are all important positive factors, global volatility is an important negative factor.  There are two main differences: (1) For emerging economies, current account position is an important “pull” factor, while the factor has no significant effect on advanced economies; (2) Global volatility, global liquidity and international interest rates are important factors for emerging economies, but these three factors are only significant under some methods for advanced economies, and the significance is not high.

The PVAR model shows that: (1) When the PVAR is impacted, the response direction of short-term international capital flows is almost the same for both emerging economies and  advanced economies; (2) The fluctuations of short-term international capital in emerging economies are mainly affected by “push” factors, and the cumulative variance contribution of global volatility and global liquidity reaches 17.9%, while the value of domestic economic growth and domestic interest rates is only 4.6%; (3) The cumulative variance contribution of global volatility and global liquidity in advanced economies is 3.8%, which is much smaller than that of emerging economies, and the contribution of domestic economic growth to the fluctuations of short-term international capital in advanced economies is more prominent.

Finally, based on the results, this paper provides management suggestions for short-term international capital flows in emerging economies, advanced economies and international financial institutions.