当前，城镇化以及工业化的高速发展使得城乡要素流动加快，农村人口外流、农村产业结构及经济结构转型，极大程度改变了农村的现有土地利用结构。模拟未来农村居民点内部用地结构演变特征、优化农村居民点用地结构，对于合理配置乡村土地资源及缓解城乡建设用地供需矛盾具有重要意义。

本研究以大都市郊区——北京市平谷区为例，在分析农村居民点内部用地结构变化驱动力的基础上，构建了基于内部用地结构的CA-Markov模型，开展了2025年平谷区农村居民点模拟，分析了其内部用地结构变化。其次，构建了农村居民点内部用地结构集约效应评价指标体系，测度了农村居民点内部用地结构集约效应及区域环境效应的变化情况。进而提出了农村居民点内部用地结构优化的方案及基本策略。

（1）平谷区农村居民点内部用地结构变化的影响因素差异显著，居住用地受海拔、坡度及人均耕地面积的影响较大，产业用地及空闲地主要受非农产业收入占比、非农产业就业人口占比影响，公共服务用地变化则主要受三产收入占比、三产就业人数比及坡度主导。

（2）根据模拟结果，2025年平谷区农村居民点内部商服用地、工业用地、居住用地、公服用地及空闲地分别占1.58%、7.37%、80.02%、5.78%及4.93%，宗教风俗用地及街巷用地分别约占0.195及0.14%。从空间分布来看，居住用地主要呈现“大散居、小聚居”的分布格局，工业用地、商服用地及空闲地均形成了“多核”集聚中心，公共管理与公共服务用地则呈现“极核式”分布格局。农村居民点内部各地类共有41种组合类型，以单一居住用地为主导的村庄数量最多，共占32.44%。组合类型为居住用地+公服用地的村庄数量次之，约占8.01%。以空闲地为单一主导地类的村庄约占7.63%。

（3）2015至2025年间，平谷区农村居民点用地变化增速减缓而消失速度增加，乡村衰退中的用地空心化的态势仍在延续。城镇空间向外扩张成为农村居民点规模缩减的主要原因。农村居民点内部工业用地及商服用地总量将分别减少约16.95%和16.37%。居住用地减少约10.14%，公共服务用地减少约10.09%，而空闲地总量共增长约2.01%。各地类变化表现出明显的区域差异，城市边缘区农村居民点用地结构的生活功能弱化显著，潜在功能用地增加；城郊区农村居民点生产生活功能用地均减少，而远郊传统农区以商服用地及公共服务用地增加、空闲地减少为主导变化趋势，农村居民点公共服务用地趋于均衡。

（4）农村居民点内部用地结构集约效应变化呈两极分化的趋势，2015及2025年，各时期农村居民点内部用地结构集约效应值在空间上均呈现西南高而东北低的特征，中心城区周边及其马坊工业园区附近，农村居民点内部用地结构的集约效应最强，而北部山区的熊儿寨乡及其周边成为集约效应的低值区。得益于城镇扩张吞并了大量农村居民点用地及农村大量空闲地斑块合并，平谷区景观斑块的破碎化程度整体降低，同时，区域景观斑块之间的比邻率降低且连通性增强、景观斑块优势度下降，区域景观异质性增强。

（5）基于区域差异、农村居民点内部用地结构集约效应等级变化、区域环境效应水平，将平谷区农村居民点划分为“持续低效型”、“增强型”、“减弱型”、“持续高效型”及“一般稳定型”等五种类型，并分区提出了优化方案。今后村庄规划编制应适应用地结构变化态势，实施以人居环境建设为导向的用地结构优化行动，促进城乡等值化。同时，开展建设用地整治与要素流动市场建设，建立和活跃农村土地流转市场，促进城乡之间要素双向对流。

At present, the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization has accelerated the flow of urban and rural factors, and the outflow of rural population and the transformation of rural industrial and economic structures have greatly changed the existing land use structure in rural areas. Simulation of the future evolution characteristics of the internal land use structure of rural settlements and optimizing the land use structure is of great great significance for the rational allocation of rural land resources and alleviating the contradiction between urban and rural construction land supply and demand.

Selecting Pinggu District of Beijing as an example, this study examined the driving factors of the changes in the internal land use structure of rural settlements, constructed a cellular automata (CA)-Markov simulation model based on the internal land structure and simulated the changes in the internal land structure of rural settlements in 2025. By constructing an index system for evaluating the intensive effect of land use structure within rural settlements, the changes of the intensive effect of the internal land structure of rural settlements and the regional environmental effect were measured. Then, the scheme and basic strategies for the optimization of the internal land use structure of rural settlements are proposed.

(1) The change in the internal land use structure of rural settlements in Pinggu District is the combined influence of natural conditions and socio-economic factors. However, the functions of various localities are quite different, and there are significant differences in the influence degree and mechanism between the above factors. Housing land is greatly affected by the altitude, slope and arable land area per capita, industrial land and idle land are mainly affected by the proportion of the non-agricultural income and non-agricultural employment population, while the change in public service land is largely dominated by the proportion of the tertiary income, tertiary employment population and slope.

(2) According to the simulation results, in 2025, commercial land, industrial land, housing land, public service land and idle land in rural settlements will account for 1.58%, 7.37%, 80.02%, 5.78% and 4.93% respectively, while religious and customary land and street land will account for about 0.195 and 0.14% respectively. In terms of the spatial distribution, housing land primarily exhibits the distribution pattern of high scattering and small clusters, while industrial land, commercial land and idle land all form multi-core clustering centres, whereas public service land exhibits the polar core distribution pattern. There are 41 combination types of various categories in rural settlements, and the number of villages dominated by a single housing land is the largest, accounting for 32.44% in total. The number of villages with a combination type of housing land + public service land is the next largest, accounting for 8.01%. Villages with idle land as the single dominant land type accounted for about 7.63%.

(3) Between 2015 and 2025, the growth rate of rural settlement land change in Pinggu District slows down while the rate of disappearance increases, and the hollowing out of land in rural decline continues. The outward expansion of urban space becomes the main reason for the shrinking size of rural settlements. The total amount of industrial land and commercial land within rural settlements will decrease by about 16.95% and 16.37%, respectively. Housing land will decrease by about 10.14%, public service land by about 10.09%, while the total amount of idle land will increase by a total of about 2.01%. The changes of each land category show obvious regional differences. Living functional land will significantly deteriorate in urban fringe areas and outer suburbs. Production functional land will significantly decrease in the outer suburbs, whereas commercial and public service land will significantly increase in the rural hinterland.

(4) The change of the intensive effect of the internal land use structure of rural settlements shows a trend of polarization. The intensive effect value in each period is spatially high in the southwest and low in the northeast. Around the central city and near the Mafang Industrial Park, the internal land structure of rural settlements has the strongest effect, while the northern mountainous area like Xiongerzhai and its surrounding areas have become low-value areas with intensive effects. Due to the annexation of a large number of rural settlement sites by urban expansion and the merging of a large number of rural vacant land patches, the fragmentation of landscape patches will be reduced as a whole, while the ratio between regional landscape patches will be reduced and connectivity will be enhanced, the dominance of landscape patches will be reduced, and regional landscape heterogeneity will be enhanced.

(5) Based on regional differences, changes in the level of intensive effect of the internal land use structure of rural settlements, and the level of regional environmental effect, rural settlements in Pinggu District are classified into five types: "sustainable low-efficiency", "enhanced", "weakened", "sustainable high-efficiency" and "general stable", and proposed the optimization plan. In the future, rural planning and renewal should adapt to the changing conditions of the land use structure, namely, the rural development approach involving the integration of secondary and tertiary industries and land use structure adjustment oriented towards human settlement environment construction should be implemented to promote urban-rural equivalence. In addition, construction land improvement and factor flow market construction should be promoted to facilitate bidirectional convection of factors between urban and rural areas.