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中文题名:

 北京市碳排放结构分解及其与经济增长关系研究    

姓名:

 尤金可    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 中文    

学科代码:

 025200    

学科专业:

 应用统计    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 应用统计硕士    

学位类型:

 专业学位    

学位年度:

 2019    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 统计学院/国民核算研究院    

研究方向:

 国民经济核算    

第一导师姓名:

 席玮    

第一导师单位:

 北京师范大学统计学院    

提交日期:

 2019-06-17    

答辩日期:

 2019-05-27    

外文题名:

 STUDY ON CARBON EMISSION STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BEIJING    

中文关键词:

 碳排放 ; 投入产出分析 ; IO-SDA ; Tapio脱钩    

中文摘要:
自于18世纪60年代以来,全球范围内绝大多数的经济体都取得了很大的发展,人民生活水平提高,物质保障得到了满足,但随之而来的一系列问题也造成了各国的困扰,比如:气候变暖、生态环境恶化、资源紧缺等。其中气候变暖问题由为突出,气候变暖是指由于人类焚烧化石燃料或乱砍乱伐森林等植被并在其焚烧过程中释放大量的温室气体,这些温室气体能够高度的透过来自太阳的可见光,同时又能强烈吸收地面辐射中的红外线,导致地球温度上升,即温室效应。近年来,气候变暖造成了海平面升高、大型海啸飓风、大面积干旱等一系列严重危害人类生存和发展的问题,这促使各国开始探寻低碳经济的发展道路和模式。 中国是目前CO2排放量最多的国家。我国在2015年制定了《强化应对气候变化行动:中国国家自主贡献》,制定了2030年的碳排放行动目标:单位GDP产值碳排放量比2005年下降60%-65%,并且尽快尽早地达到高峰;提高非化石能源消费占比,使其占一次能源约20%、构建低碳能源体系、形成节能低碳的产业体系、健全现有的温室气体核算体系等。如何实现我国的减排承诺,研究我国CO2排放量变化规律和影响因素,制定符合我国国情的减排政策以实现我国CO2强度的逐步降低成为值得关注和研究的问题。 本文明确以北京市为研究对象,首先基于IPCC提出的能源表观消费量法对北京市2001-2017年的CO2排放量进行整体核算;然后基于投入产出分析方法,在对传统的IO表进行改造的基础上,通过引入能源消耗象限形成改进后的经济-资源IO表,然后,在此基础上对北京市碳排放量建立IO-SDA模型,并对CO2排放总量和各部门的完全二氧化碳排放强度的变动进行分解分析;最后在碳排放核算基础上,利用Tapio脱钩指数,将能源消费量、工业生产总值作为中间变量引入到Tapio模型中,对经济增长的碳排放效应进行分解。
外文摘要:
Since the 1960s, most of the economies in the world have made great progress, with the improvement of people's living standards and the satisfaction of material security. However, a series of subsequent problems have also caused perplexities in various countries, like global warming, ecological environment deterioration, resource shortage and stuff like that. The global warming is prominent, the warming climate is caused by burning fossil fuels or deforestation, and in the burning process it will produce large amounts of greenhouse gases. These greenhouse gases are highly permeable to visible light from the sun and strongly absorb infrared radiation from the ground, leading to the earth's temperature rises. In recent years, climate changes have caused a series of problems that seriously harm human survival and development, such as sea level rise, large scale tsunami and hurricane, large area drought, etc., which have aroused great attention of all countries to ecology and prompted all countries to explore the low-carbon development path and mode of low-carbon economy. China is now the biggest emitter of CO2. On November 18, 2015, China issued a programmatic document, "enhanced action on climate change: China's nationally determined contribution", which set the carbon emission action target for 2030. The document shows that carbon emissions per unit of GDP should decrease by 60-65% compared with 2005 and we should increase the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption to about 20 percent of primary energy, build a low-carbon energy system, build a low-carbon industrial system as well as improve the existing greenhouse gas accounting system. How to realize China's emission reduction commitment and formulate emission reduction policies in line with China's national conditions to achieve the gradual reduction of CO2 intensity in China has become a noteworthy problem. This paper explicitly takes Beijing as the research object. Firstly, the overall accounting of CO2 emissions in Beijing from 2001 to 2017 is conducted based on the apparent energy consumption method proposed by IPCC. Then, based on the input-output analysis method, the improved economy-resource IO table is formed by introducing the energy consumption quadrant on the basis of the traditional IO table. On this basis, we can set up IO-SDA model to analyze the CO2 emissions and fully carbon dioxide emissions intensity. Finally, by introducing energy consumption and industrial GDP as intermediate variables into the Tapio model, we can use the Tapio decoupling index to decompose the carbon emission effect of economic growth.
参考文献总数:

 38    

馆藏号:

 硕025200/19002    

开放日期:

 2020-07-09    

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