随着中国经济发展步入新常态，当前我国人口发展也面临重大转折。2021年我国出生人口1062万人，是新中国成立以来出生人数最少的一年。2022年中国正式进入人口负增长时代。在当代青年普遍生育意愿较低的背景下，国内短视频平台却兴起一股萌娃短视频热潮。本研究计划从涵化理论出发，运用问卷调查法和深度访谈法，深入考察萌娃短视频接触对未育青年生育期待可能产生的影响。

研究首先通过问卷调查法对528份有效问卷（男163，女365）进行数据分析，结果显示：萌娃短视频接触强度对未育青年生育期待有显著正向影响；萌娃短视频接触强度对未育青年儿童情感价值感知有显著正向影响；儿童情感价值感知在萌娃短视频接触强度与未育青年生育期待间起中介作用；自我参照效应在萌娃短视频接触与未育青年生育期待间的调节作用不显著。研究继而通过半结构化访谈对15名访谈对象（男6，女9）进行深入心理分析，结果显示：未育青年的萌娃短视频接触原因包括渠道逻辑、内容逻辑和受众逻辑三方面；萌娃短视频提升未育青年生育期待的表现方式分为开启憧憬和加强本意两类；萌娃短视频能提升未育青年生育期待的原因包括短视频中展示的儿童情感价值、正面范本和决策依据；萌娃短视频提升未育青年生育期待的过程呈现潜移默化和辅助动力两大特点。

综合以上实证分析，本文得出萌娃短视频接触对未育青年生育期待的涵化机制为：（1）涵化路径：萌娃短视频作为互联网“清流”提升青年生育期待；（2）涵化途径：萌娃短视频综合感性与理性诉求提高生育期待。其中感性诉求指萌娃短视频能提供自我成长等多角度儿童情感价值感知。理性诉求指萌娃短视频能通过提供正面范本与决策依据加强育儿效能感；（3）涵化程度：萌娃短视频仅为青年生育期待提高的辅助因素。

With China's economic development stepping into a new normal, China's population development is also facing a major turning point. In 2021, 10.62 million people will be born, the lowest number since the founding of the PRC. In 2022, China officially entered the era of negative population growth. Under the background of the low fertility intention of contemporary young people, a boom of baby short videos has emerged on domestic short video platforms. From the perspective of the cultivation theory, this study plans to use the method of questionnaire survey and in-depth interview to investigate the possible influence of baby short video exposure on the fertility expectations of childless youth.

Firstly, data from 528 valid questionnaires (163 male and 365 female) were analyzed. The results showed that the exposure intensity of cute baby's short video has a significant positive impact on fertility expectations of childless youth; The exposure intensity of cute baby's short video has a significant positive impact on the emotional value perception of childless young children; Children's emotional value perception plays a mediating role between the contact intensity of the short video of the baby and the fertility expectation of the childless youth; The self-reference effect may not play a significant role in regulating the fertility expectation of childless young people in the short video contact of the cute baby.

Then, through semi-structured interviews, an in-depth psychological analysis was conducted on 15 interviewees (male 6, female 9). The results showed that the reasons for the contact of childless youth with baby short videos included channel logic, content logic and audience logic; The performance ways of the cute baby short video to enhance the fertility expectation of the childless youth are divided into two categories: opening the vision and strengthening the original intention; The reasons why the cute baby short video can improve the fertility expectation of the childless youth include the emotional value of children displayed in the short video, the positive model and the provision of decision entry; The process of raising fertility expectations of childless young people in the short video of cute baby shows two characteristics: imperceptible influence and auxiliary power.

Based on the above empirical analysis, this paper concludes that the implication mechanism of baby short video exposure on the fertility expectations of childless youth is as follows: (1) acculturation path: Baby short video as the "clean stream" of the Internet to enhance the fertility expectations of childless youth; (2) acculturation path: Baby short video combines emotional and rational appeals to improve the fertility expectations. Among them, emotional appeal refers to the children's emotional value perception from multiple perspectives such as self-growth. Rational appeal means that the baby short video can enhance the sense of childcare efficacy by providing positive templates and decision-making access; (3) The degree of acculturation: baby short video is only an auxiliary factor for the improvement of childless youth's fertility expectations.