台风是宁波地区发生频率较高、影响最严重的一种自然致灾因子，严重威胁着人们的财产和生命安全，也影响着经济的发展。进出口贸易是宁波的经济支柱产业，易受台风影响。由于台风灾害对进出口贸易的影响的理论与实证研究较少，本文从理论和实证角度分析台风灾害对进出口贸易的影响，从而提出防灾减损建议。 研究台风灾害对贸易的影响实际上就是研究台风灾害对经济的影响，特别是对生产链供应链的影响。生产和运输的中断不仅会造成直接经济损失，同时影响贸易的往来。 文章选取2006年-2016年与宁波有进出口贸易往来的10个东南亚国家和地区的面板数据，建立了贸易引力模型，将包括台风、GDP、人口、距离、面积变量引入模型，通过广义线性模型进行回归分析，针对台风对进出口贸易影响进行量化评估和探讨。 本文是基于贸易引力模型基础上的实证研究，所以以宁波为例，通过构建台风灾害因子的贸易引力模型研究台风灾害对经济的影响问题。结果表明，模型的拟合度很好的说明了本文选择的因子可以解释宁波的进出口贸易。说明台风灾害确实对进出口贸易有一定的影响，其中主要影响宁波地区的台风与宁波的进口正相关，与出口负相关。影响贸易伙伴的台风与宁波的出口正相关，与宁波的进口负相关。 根据本研究得到的结论，结合目前宁波的贸易发展现状，提出1）应当加强对台风灾害的管理，提高防灾意识，提升保险防灾减灾的能力，减轻台风灾害带来的负面影响。2）鉴于GDP这一因素同时也会促进进出口贸易的发展，所以我国应继续加强经济建设，优化经济结构，提高进出口产品的国际竞争力。

Typhoon, as the most frequently happed disaster in Ningbo, threats people’s property and life security. Also it limits the economy development in a certain extent. Import and export trade is the economic pillar industry of Ningbo, it is vulnerable to typhoons. There are few theoretical and empirical studies on the impact of typhoon on foreign business trade. Therefore, this article will analyze the impact of typhoon disaster on foreign trade from theoretical and empirical perspectives, and put forward some suggestions for disaster prevention and loss prevention. Research on the impact of typhoons on trade is actually the impact of research on the economy, especially the impact on the supply chain. Disruption of production and transport not only causes direct economic losses, but also affects trade. We selected the panel data from 10 Southeast Asia countries that have import and export business relationship to build up the trade gravity model. And bring relative variables which including Typhoon, GDP, population, distance etc. in the model. And research the influence to Ningbo import and export trade made by typhoon through regression analysis by generalized linear models. The results show that the fitting degree of the model indicates that the factors selected in this article can explain the foreign trade of Ningbo very well. The typhoon does have some effect on the foreign trade business of Ningbo. Among them, the typhoon in Ningbo is positively related to the import of Ningbo, but it is negative with the export. The typhoon that affects trading partners is positively correlated with Ningbo's exports, and is negative with imports. According to the conclusion of this study，considering the current situation of trade in Ningbo, I would like to suggest that we should strengthen the management of typhoon disasters and raise awareness of disaster prevention and improve our ability to prevent and mitigate natural disasters to mitigate the negative impact of typhoon. In view of the GDP factor, it can promote the development of import and export trade, we should continue to strengthen economic construction, and optimizing economic structure, and improve the international competitiveness of import and export products.