在教育强国建设与学龄人口变动的双重驱动下，我国义务教育教师资源配置面临着巨大的挑战与难得的契机。为做好新形势下面向2035年的义务教育教师资源配置规划，本研究首先根据第七次全国人口普查的数据，测算了2023—2035年我国城区、镇区和乡村义务教育阶段的在校生规模。其次，根据我国城乡义务教育发展的实际需求和教育强国义务教育发展水平，设定了基准方案、教育强国方案和学科均衡方案三种教师资源配置策略，其中基准方案作为对照方案，教育强国方案旨在解决我国城镇大班额下缺编缺人、乡村小规模学校超编缺人的教师数量问题，学科均衡方案旨在解决我国城乡义务教育教师队伍普遍存在的学科结构性缺员问题。然后，本研究对三种方案下面向2035年的城乡义务教育教师需求数量进行了测算。最后，在同时考虑学龄人口变动和教师减员的影响下，本研究测算了“十四五”末期、“十五五”、“十六五”三个时期不同方案下的教师需求缺口。

       本研究主要得到以下结论：（1）2023—2035年我国义务教育在校生规模将经历一个总体下降的过程，且在不同阶段和不同地区之间存在显著差异；（2）2023—2035年我国义务教育教师需求数量整体呈先增长后持续下降的态势，教育强国方案对教师资源的需求相比基准方案显著增多；（3）根据学科均衡方案，2022年我国城乡义务教育教师队伍存在较为严重的学科结构性缺员问题，未来需要大量教师以满足学科均衡配置的要求；（4）在“十四五”末期、“十五五”及“十六五”时期，我国义务教育教师需求将呈现缺口与冗余交替出现的复杂态势，按学科均衡方案配置教师资源有助于缓解教师冗余问题。

       在实证分析的基础上，本研究提出四点建议：第一，锚定教育强国目标和学科结构均衡要求，优化教师资源配置标准，分阶段有序降低城镇地区生师比、优化乡村班师比；第二，针对我国城乡义务教育在校生规模未来变动的差异，采用差异化教师资源配置方法，为我国城乡义务教育均衡发展提供充足的师资支持；第三，充分发挥科师比配置教师资源的优势，做好动态监测，精准调配学校间、学科间教师资源；第四，重视短缺学科师范生及教育硕士培养，优化调整教育人才培养计划，扩大“优师计划”、“国优计划”招生规模，为中小学输送优秀教师资源，助力城乡义务教育优质均衡发展。

       Driven by the construction of a powerful country in education and the change of school-age population, the allocation of compulsory education teacher resources in China is facing great challenges and rare opportunities. In order to make a good plan for the allocation of compulsory education teacher resources to 2035 under the new situation, this study first estimates the scale of compulsory education students in urban, town and rural areas in China from 2023 to 2035 based on the data of The seventh National Census. Secondly, according to the actual needs of the development of urban and rural compulsory education in China and the development level of compulsory education of the world's education powers, this study sets three teacher resource allocation plans: Benchmark Plan, Education Power Plan and Discipline Balance Plan. Among them, the Benchmark Plan is used as a control scheme, the Education Power Plan aims to solve the problem of the shortage of teachers in large classes in urban areas and towns and the problem of "over-staffing and lack of staff" in small rural schools, and the Discipline Balance Plan aims to solve the problem of the discipline structural shortage of teachers in urban and rural compulsory education. Then, this study calculates the demand for compulsory education teachers in urban and rural areas in 2023-2035 under three plans. Finally, considering the influence of school-age population change and teacher downsizing, this study estimates the teacher demand gap under different plans in the late"14th Five-Year Plan", "15th Five-Year Plan" and "16th Five-Year Plan".

       The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) From 2023 to 2035, the scale of compulsory education students in China will experience an overall decline, and there are significant differences in different stages and districts; (2) From 2023 to 2035, the demand for compulsory education teachers in China will first increase and then continue to decline, and the demand for teacher resources in the Education Power Plan will increase significantly compared with the Benchmark Plan; (3) According to the Discipline Balance Plan, in 2022, China's urban and rural compulsory education teachers have a serious shortage problem in the discipline structure, and a large number of teachers are needed in the future to meet the requirements of balanced discipline structure; (4) At the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", "15th Five-Year Plan" and "16th Five-Year Plan", the demand for compulsory education teachers in China will show a complex situation where gap and redundancy occur alternately, and the Discipline Balance Plan will help to alleviate the problem of teacher redundancy.

       On the basis of empirical analysis, this study puts forward four suggestions: First, according to the goal of building an education power and the requirement of balanced discipline structure, we should optimize the teacher resource allocation standard, orderly reduce the student-teacher ratio in urban areas and towns, and optimize the class-teacher ratio in rural areas. Secondly, according to the difference of the future change of the scale of compulsory education students in urban and rural areas in China, differentiated teacher resource allocation method is adopted to provide sufficient teacher support for the balanced development of compulsory education in urban and rural areas in China. Third, we should give full play to the advantages of the subject-teacher ratio in the allocation of teacher resources, conduct dynamic monitoring, and accurately allocate teacher resources among schools and disciplines. Fourthly, we should attach importance to the training of normal university students and education masters in shortage disciplines, optimize and adjust the education talent training plan, and expand the enrollment scale of the "Excellent Teacher Program" and the "National Excellent Teacher Program" to provide excellent teacher resources for primary and secondary schools and help urban and rural compulsory education develop in a high-quality and balanced way.