中文题名: | 数字经济发展指数编制及应用研究 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | 中文 |
学科代码: | 025200 |
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学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 应用统计硕士 |
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学位年度: | 2022 |
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研究方向: | 数字经济 |
第一导师姓名: | |
第一导师单位: | |
提交日期: | 2022-06-23 |
答辩日期: | 2022-05-25 |
外文题名: | THE COMPILATION AND APPLICATION OF DIGITAL ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT INDEX |
中文关键词: | |
外文关键词: | Digital Economy ; Index Compilation ; Principal Component Analysis ; Time-Varying Correlation Coefficient ; TVP-VAR Model |
中文摘要: |
21 世纪是数字化的世纪,数字技术的进步与变革不断地影响着我们的生产方式与生活习惯,数字化进程正在逐渐加快,数字经济已经成为全球经济增长的全新动力。纵观古今中外,历史上的每一场工业革命与科技革命都是一个国家未来数十年国力强盛与否的重要窗口期,世界正处于百年来前所未有之大变局,实体经济与数字经济深度高质量融合成为当下我们必须把握的机遇。 论文对国内外研究机构和研究者的数字经济相关文献进行了研究,通过对比分析,构建起包括数字基础设施、数字人才、数字技术、数字产业以及数字跨境等五个一级类目的数字经济发展衡量框架,然后在一级类目下筛选若干指标,利用主成分方法确定每个指标的权重,再利用时变相关系数的方法合成了全国数字经济发展指数。接下来,本文根据所构建的数字经济发展衡量框架,计算了我国省际数字3经济发展指数,再根据我国经济区域划分准则,研究了我国不同经济区域的数字经济发展情况,得出了相应结论。而后本文利用全国数字经济发展指数以及中国宏观数据,通过构建TVP-VAR模型,进一步研究了我国数字经济发展对我国工业生产能力的动态影响作用。 通过省际数字经济发展指数表现来看,我国数字经济发展情况并不均衡,各省的数字经济发展情况存在较大差异,其中广东省的数字经济发展指数得分居全国第一。将各省按照经济区域划分准则进行划分后,本文发现东部地区数字经济规模和增速都居于全国第一,西部地区数字经济起点低但增速快,中部地区数字经济发展稳中有序,而东北地区虽然工业基础较好,但受限于人才流失等问题,数字经济发展增速较慢。 通过构建TVP-VAR模型,本文绘制了数字经济对我国工业生产的等距脉冲响应函数图和时点脉冲响应函数图。根据等距脉冲响应分析,数字经济对工业生产会产生长期正向影响,其中短期冲击力度在2011年至2014年期间逐步下降,而后趋于稳定;中期的冲击趋势与短期冲击相近,但冲击力度比短期冲击更弱;长期的冲击趋势同样与短期冲击相近,但冲击力度为三者中最弱。根据时点脉冲响应分析,不同时点数字经济对工业生产的脉冲响应走势相近,都是第1期冲击效果最强,而后逐渐减弱;随着时间的推移,当年数字经济对工业生产的时点脉冲力度逐渐减弱。 最后,本文总结了研究结论,并针对研究中发现的现象和问题给出了数字经济发展的政策建议。 |
外文摘要: |
The 21st century is a century of digitalization. The progress and change of digital technology affect our production methods and living habits. The digital process is gradually accelerating, and the digital economy has become a brand new driving force for global economic growth. Throughout history, every industrial revolution and scientific and technological revolution is an important window period for a country's national strength in the coming decades. The world is undergoing unprecedented changes in the past century. The deep and high-quality integration of the real economy and the digital economy has become an opportunity we must seize at present. This paper summarizes the relevant research on digital economy of research institutions and researchers at home and abroad. Through comparative analysis, this paper constructs a measurement framework of digital economy development including five dimensions: digital infrastructure, digital talents, digital technology, digital industry and digital cross-border, and then selects several indicators from these five angles, and uses the principal component method to determine the weight of each indicator, Then the national digital economy development index is synthesized by using the method of time-varying correlation coefficient. Next, according to the measurement framework of digital economy development, this paper calculates China's inter provincial digital economy index, and then studies the development of digital economy in different economic regions according to the division of economic regions in China, and draws the corresponding conclusions. Then, using the national digital economy development index and China's macro data, this paper further studies the dynamic impact of China's digital economy development on China's consumption level and the rationality of China's industrial structure by constructing tvp-var model. According to the performance of inter provincial digital economy development index, the development of digital economy in China is uneven, and there are great differences in the development of digital economy among provinces. After dividing the provinces according to the criteria of economic region division, this paper finds that the scale and growth rate of digital economy in the Eastern region rank first in the country, the starting point of digital economy in the western region is low but the growth rate is fast, and the development of digital economy in the central region is stable and orderly, Although the industrial base of Northeast China is good, due to the brain drain and other problems, the growth rate of digital economy is slow. By constructing TVP-VAR model, this paper draws the isometric impulse response function diagram and time point impulse response function diagram of digital economy to China's industrial production. According to the equidistant impulse response analysis, the digital economy will have a long-term positive impact on industrial production, in which the short-term impact will gradually decline from 2011 to 2014, and then tend to be stable; The impact trend in the medium term is similar to that in the short term, but the impact intensity is weaker than that in the short term; The long-term impact trend is also similar to the short-term impact, but the impact intensity is the weakest of the three. According to the time point impulse response analysis, the impulse response trend of digital economy to industrial production at different time points is similar, which is strong in the short term, and then gradually weakened; With the passage of time, the time pulse of digital economy on industrial production gradually weakened. Finally, this paper analyses the conclusions, and gives several policy suggestions for the development of digital economy according to the phenomena and problems found in the research. |
参考文献总数: | 82 |
馆藏地: | 总馆B301 |
馆藏号: | 硕0714Z2/22027Z |
开放日期: | 2023-06-23 |