通货膨胀是宏观经济研究中的一个重要问题，抑制通货膨胀是政府制定宏观经济政策的重要目标之一，我国近阶段的通货膨胀现象，也引起了学者的广泛关注。货币数量论认为通货膨胀是一种货币现象，物价水平的变化源于货币数量的变化，货币供给增加导致物价上涨，但是我国目前的宏观经济状况已不符合这一理论的前提条件。本文在我国宏观经济从匮乏走向过剩的背景下，以及资本市场发展、规模扩大的情形下，对我国的通货膨胀问题进行分析。本文首先对我国过剩经济下的通货膨胀问题进行理论分析，通过改变传统货币数量论的交易方程式的前提假定，分析在存在资本市场，以及工业部门存在过剩生产能力，农业部门处于充分就业状态的前提下，我国通货膨胀的形成机制。研究认为，从长期看来随着我国资本市场的发展和完善，新增的货币供应量进入到资本市场的比例在不断扩大，保留在商品市场中的数量相比则在减少，因而，物价水平的变动要弱于货币供应量的变动；而农业部门产品价格的上涨是拉动总体物价水平上涨，导致通货膨胀的重要原因。并在此基础上，对我国2003年至2011的农产品价格和通货膨胀之间的关系，进行协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验，分析表明农产品价格的波动，是我国近阶段通货膨胀水平变化的重要原因。

Inflation is an important issue in the macroeconomic research and curbing inflation is one of the important goals of government macroeconomic policy-making. The inflation phenomenon in recent days attracted much attention from scholars. The Quantity Theory of Money considers that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Changes in the price level come from changes in the quantity of money and the increase in money supply lead to price increase. However, China's current economic situation does not meet the hypothesis of the theory. This paper analyses the inflation phenomenon of China under the background that China’s economy is directing from shortage to surplus and capital market in China is developing. This paper analyzes the inflation problem under the surplus economy in China through changing the hypothesis of traditional Quantity Theory and researches the inflation mechanism under the conditions in China that capital market is developing, industrial sector has excess production capacity and agricultural sector is in full employment. It is suggested that the level of price changes is weaker than money supply because of the development and improvement of China’s capital market. The rose of product prices in agricultural sector is an important reason for pulling the overall price level, leading to inflation. And then, the relationship between agricultural prices and inflation is also tested using the method of Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test. The analysis shows that the fluctuation of agricultural prices is the main reason for inflation in China.