气候变化与人类活动对水循环及水资源安全的影响已经成为当代水科学面临的主要科学问题。自20世纪80年代以来，由于人类活动的深刻影响，西辽河上游水文、水资源正在发生重要变化，不仅严重影响当地经济与社会可持续发展，对中、下游乃至整个西辽河流域水资源的可持续利用也构成巨大威胁，因此从气候变化和人类活动两方面深入了解这一区域水资源变化及其转折的特点、程度、响应机制、以及可能后果，不仅是目前科学界亟需回答的问题，也是国家重大发展战略的需求。论文选择位于西辽河上游的老哈河流域为研究区，聚焦80年代前后气候变化与人类活动背景下水资源变化这一科学问题，在全面收集研究区自然地理、社会经济、遥感影像资料基础上，运用地理学、水文学、气象学、生态学、地理信息与遥感科学基本原理，采用数字流域与数据库技术、非参数检验、小波分析、与水文模型耦合方法，结合野外调查，以关键区域和关键时段为突破口，找出控制水环境变化的关键因素，阐明北方缺水问题背后复杂的水文水资源对气候变化与人类活动的响应机制，并提出区域水资源有序适应模式。论文取得如下结果：1、基于“气候－水资源－生态环境－社会经济”多源信息库，采用数字流域与数据库技术，给出了三层体系结构“基础信息层—数据管理层—模型层”在数字老哈河集成 GIS 平台中的具体实现，对其中的组件GIS技术、多层体系结构、平台设计、功能等进行了探讨。2、采用 M-K 等非参数检验、跃变点检测、小波分析等方法，检测了不同时期气候、水资源、以及土地利用变化特征：1961-2000年期间，降水没有明显趋势变化，但连丰或连枯的概率较大；年气温有明显正趋势变化；年径流系数表现为显著负趋势变化，相同降水量产生的径流越来越少，70年代和90年代产生的地表径流量只有60年代的80%，80年代只有60年代的50%；80年代后，由于人类活动增强，径流对降水的响应变弱；80年代后，流域草地减少最多，其次为耕地，而林地比例增加最多。3、基于分布式水文模型SWAT，定量给出了流域水资源对气候变化与土地利用的响应特征：位于半干旱、半湿润区的老哈河流域对气候变化的响应比干旱区或湿润区要更为敏感，也比整个北方区域的响应更敏感，在暖干化气候下，这种响应要更为明显。降水不变时，径流对气温升高比降低的响应更为敏感，气温每升高1℃，流量减少6.44%，每降低1℃，流量增加4.44%；随着降水增加，径流对气温越敏感；降水增加比减少相同幅度对径流的影响显著；气温越低，径流对降水越敏感。土壤水对降水的响应程度不如径流显著；气温越高，土壤水对降水越敏感；与径流相比，暖干化气候对土壤含水量的影响要更为显著。林地相对于草地和耕地具有增水效应，而耕地相对于草地又具有增水效应。气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为36.89%、63.11%，1980-1989年期间，人类活动的贡献率最大。位于下游受人类活动影响较多的子流域，流量下降较明显。4、探索了一种水文模型耦合方法（SWAT-WEAP），以便同等考虑水资源供给端与需求端，揭示气候变化下人类开发、利用和管理方式对水资源脆弱性的影响：发展畜牧业、改变种植结构与高效节水灌溉是缓解水短缺最为有效的措施，也是应对气候变化最为有效的方式，与参考预案相比，可以缓解18-75%。人类活动对枯水期水资源影响相对较大，比正常年份要放大2-4倍。水短缺量对降水减少比增加更敏感，气温升高2℃，降水减少10%增加的水短缺量比降水增加10%所缓解的短缺量要多32.67%，即暖干化气候明显加剧了水资源系统的脆弱性。暖干化气候放大了人类活动对水资源系统的作用，气温升高2℃同时降水增加10%，将使人类活动的作用放大12%-20%，但基于供水端的措施在暖干化气候时由于水资源供给来源受限，其适应性有所减弱。非气候因素大多时候比气候变化对水资源系统脆弱性的影响更大。5、老哈河流域水资源脆弱性的驱动力主要源自农业不合理灌溉，问题的关键在于缺乏管理，基于水资源蛛网适应理论体系，构建了区域水资源有序适应模式：气候与前期类似时，不同适应模式对年内或年际水短缺的缓解作用差异均很显著，在水短缺年份，四者的缓解作用分异明显；不同的适应模式中，气候变化所造成的差异不同，“现状模式”差异最为明显，极端气候、暖干化以及暖湿化气候与现状气候的差值分别为：56106m3、92106m3、与-61106m3；差异最不明显的是“需求端模式与“供需模式”；“供给端模式”在暖干化时由于水资源供给来源受限，其缓解作用有所减弱，而在供给端和需求端同时采取措施的“供需模式”中，可以明显缓解气候变化尤其是暖干化所造成的水资源短缺。本研究形成的理论、方法与技术体系将可为其他流域以及类似研究提供借鉴，实践过程与结果可以为类似地区开展相近工作提供指导。

The impact of climate change and human activities on the water cycle and water security are the new areas of research directions and a topical issue within international hydrological science in the 21st century. Since the 80's of 20th century, because of the profound impact of human activities, important changes of hydrology and water resources in upstream Xiliaohe are taking place, not only seriously affect the local economic and social sustainable development, and also pose a huge threat to sustainable utilization of water resources in the whole XiLiaohe River Basin. Therefore, from climate change and human activity understanding water resources changes and the characteristics of its turning point, degree, response mechanism, as well as possible consequences of this area, are not only urgent scientific issues, and also the demand for a major development strategy of China. By selecting Laohahe River Basin (LRB) located in the upper reaches of the Xiliaohe River Basin as study area, the scientific issue of water resources change was focused on in the context of climate change and human activity changes. The digital basin technology, database technology, non-parametric test, and coupling hydrological model approach, combined with field surveys were applied, the database of geographical, socio-economic, remote sensing image was built, and basic principles of geography, hydrology, ecology and remote sensing and geographic information science was applied in this study. Based on this, the discipline of water resources changes taken place and taking place was studied, and the key factors affecting hydrology and water resources was found by identify critical areas and critical periods as a breakthrough point in this thesis. The response mechanisms to climate change and human activity of basin hydrology and water resources was also clarified, and the orderly adaptation model was put forward. The main findings and contributions of the dissertation include: (1) Based on the "climate - water resources - ecological environment - socio-economic" multi-source information database, the three-tier architecture "basic information layer - data management layer- model layer" was realized in Integrated GIS Platform of digital Laohahe River Basin. The GIS components technology, multi-tier architecture, platform design and function are also discussed. (2) Based on the average monthly runoff records, meteorological observation data and related agricultural statistics of the LRB, the statistical trend tests such as Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and etc. have been applied to examine the trends and jump of runoff coefficient and climate characteristics of LRB. The results show that precipitation during 1961-2000 has not significantly trend, while temperature has significant increasing trend. There is a significant negative trend of annual runoff coefficient during 1961-2000. Under same precipitation, 1970s’ and 1990s’ runoff only accounts for 1960s’ 80%, 1980s’ is only 1960s’ 50%.After the 1980, runoff is significantly lower than before. After 1980s, grassland area reduced most, followed by farmland, while forest land increased most.(3) The climate change and land use change responses of hydrology including flow and soil water content in regional scale were simulated by defining scenarios for changes in climatic inputs to SWAT model, and then analyzed, relative to a scenario baseline. The results indicate that LRB hydrologic system is very sensitive to climatic variations, both on a seasonal basis and over longer time periods. The hydrological response to precipitation and temperature is more sensitive in semi-arid and semi-humid area than arid and humid area as well as the whole northern area, and this response is greater obviously in combined drying and warming weather. The scenario outcomes indicate that the impacts of precipitation shifts would have a much greater impact on flow changes, as compared with changed temperature impacts. The response of flow to higher temperatures was more sensitive than lower temperatures. The response of flow to temperature was more sensitive under increased precipitation than decreased precipitation. The response of flow to increased precipitation was more sensitive than decreased precipitation. The impact of precipitation on flow became more obvious with decreased temperatures than increased temperatures. The impact of precipitation change on soil water content was less evident than flow. The impact of precipitation on soil water was more obvious with higher temperature than lower temperature. Compared with flow, the impacts of drying and warming weather on soil water is greater obviously. Forest increases the runoff yield, while grassland reduces runoff yield, and farmland increases the runoff yield compared with grassland. The observed differences in streamflow are largely attributed to human activities. The positive contribution to stream flow results from climate changes accounts for 36.89% of total contribution, while negative contribution human induced accounts for 63.11% of the total.The lower streams of the watershed, with much human induced, experience a relative greater streamflow reduction than the upper streams without more human impact. (4) The SWAT-WEAP Coupling model taking into account the demand-side as well as the supply-side of water resources was developed to simulate water vulnerability in climate change scenarios. The unmet water demand was applied for the vulnerability index to quantitative analysis the water vulnerability to the climate and human activities change in LRB. The main problem in the area is caused by number of identified water uses in agriculture sector, which is the driving force in the area. Over irrigation is a strong constraint to integrated water resource management. The main problem is not the shortage of water but the lake of the management. The most effective measures to alleviate water shortage in LRB is developing animal husbandry, changing planting structure, increasing the efficiency of water-saving irrigation and building reservoirs, which can reduce water shortage 18%-75% compared with the reference scenario. The developing animal husbandry, changing planting structure, and increasing the efficiency of water-saving irrigation are also most effective measures to adapt climate change. The impact of human activities is 2-4 times stronger in the dry years than in normal or wet years. In most scenarios, warm and dry climate intensify and aggravate the impact of human activities on the water resources vulnerability, enables those who alleviate the vulnerability of water resources more effective, and those increased the vulnerability of water resources more strongger. With 2℃ temperature rise and 10% reduction in precipitation, the impact of human activities on the water resources vulnerability will increase 12%-20%. The adaptation such as conventional supply -oriented measures weakens due to limited water supply source in dry-warm climate. Non-climate change factor maybe has a greater impact than climate change factor on water vulnerability.(5) Water resources adaptation pattern was established and water demand and supply in different climate and human activities change scenarios were simulated by applying SWAT-WEAP coupling model based on the frame of “climate change-water resources- environment-society and economy”. In scenario similar to early climate, there is a significant difference of water shortage in different adaptation patterns, especially in dry years. The impact of climate change on water supply and demand in four patterns are different. For unmet demand, coverage as well as groundwater storage, the impact of climate change from strong to weak is as follows: "current pattern", "supply-oriented pattern", "demand-oriented pattern" and "supply&demand-oriented pattern", among which " supply& demand-oriented pattern" can obviously mitigate the effect of climate change, particularly for the dry-warm climate. The method, technology, practice and results in this study can provide reference and guidance for similar research in similar areas