伴随着新一代信息技术兴起，人工智能、区块链、大数据、云计算等技术不断发展，数字经济与数字贸易应运而生。数字贸易正在深刻促进经济增长，加速全球经济深度融合。近年来，数字服务贸易在全球服务贸易中的重要地位越发凸显，也因此吸引世界各国在战略层面的诸多关注。但是，伴随着数字服务贸易的飞速增长，在世界范围内的规范和管理问题也成为新挑战。基于多边框架下的数字贸易规则谈判在短期内难以达成统一的现实基础，区域贸易协定（Regional Trade Agreements, RTAs）成为诸多经济体引导数字贸易规则制定的重要途径。

随着RTAs框架下数字贸易规则的不断发展，定量研究数字贸易规则的服务贸易效应亟待进行。为了深入研究RTAs框架下数字贸易规则对数字服务出口增长产生的积极效应，本文基于2005-2019年全球40个国家（或地区）对其所有贸易伙伴双边数字贸易出口的面板数据，实证分析了RTAs框架下数字贸易规则的积极贸易效应。研究发现：（1）一国签署RTAs框架下的数字贸易规则可以显著提高该国对其缔约方的数字服务贸易出口规模。（2）从影响机制来看，这一促进作用对与其数字基础设施差距小、国内监管水平差距小的国家（或地区）更强，与此同时，签署数字贸易规则能够通过降低缔约双方的数字贸易壁垒促进该国数字服务贸易出口增长。（3）异质性分析结果表明，无论是贸易促进相关条款、数据相关条款，还是隐私保护条款，三类条款均体现出较强的数字服务贸易出口促进效应；欧式模板和其他模板均对数字服务出口表现出积极的促进作用，而美式模板则呈现出抑制效应；签署涵盖数字贸易规则的区域贸易协定对对“电信、计算机和信息服务”、“其他商业服务”表现出显著的促进效应，而对其他部门产生显著的负面影响。（4）扩展性分析结果表明，数字贸易规则的积极影响不仅局限于数字服务出口领域，数字贸易规则对数字货物出口也会产生明显的促进作用，特别是对于信息与通信技术产品而言。

基于本文研究结论与当前现实基础，为我国能够进一步缩小“数字鸿沟”，在全球数字贸易规则制定中注入更多中国元素，本文提出以下政策建议：（1）应该以更高水平的区域贸易协定为载体，构建“中国式”模板；（2）积极对标高标准的数字贸易规则，制定符合我国利益的规则体系；（3）推动数字基础设施建设，持续增强我国数字竞争力；（4）加强数字安全屏障，在发展中切实维护我国数字安全和国家安全，助力我国数字贸易高质量发展。

Amidst the emergence of new-generation information technologies, including artificial intelligence, blockchain, big data, and cloud computing, the digital economy and digital trade have arisen. Digital trade is profoundly promoting economic growth and accelerating the deep integration of the global economy. In recent years, the significance of digital service trade in global service trade has become increasingly prominent, attracting considerable strategic attention from all countries around the world. However, along with the rapid growth of digital service trade, the regulation and management of digital trade have become new challenges globally. Given the current difficulty in reaching multilateral framework-based digital trade rule negotiations in the short term, regional trade agreements (RTA) have emerged as a crucial way for many economies to guide the formulation of digital trade rules.

With the continuous development of digital service trade rules under RTAs, quantitative research on the trade effects of these rules is urgently needed. To delve into the impact of digital trade rules under RTAs on the growth of digital service exports, this paper empirically analyzes the positive effects of digital trade rules under RTAs on digital service exports, using panel data on bilateral digital trade exports between 40 countries (or regions) and their trading partners globally from 2005 to 2019.

The study finds that: (1) Signing digital trade rules under RTAs can significantly increase its digital service trade export scale to its contracting parties of the economy. (2) The promotional effect is stronger for countries (or regions) with smaller differences in digital infrastructure and domestic regulatory levels. Additionally, signing digital trade rules can promote the growth of a country's digital service trade exports by reducing digital trade barriers between contracting parties. (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that trade promotion-related clauses, data-related clauses, and privacy protection clauses all demonstrate strong promotional effects on digital service trade exports. Both the European template and other templates show positive effects on digital service exports, while the American template exhibits an inhibitory effect. Signing regional trade agreements encompassing digital trade rules significantly promotes service exports of sectors of telecommunications, computer, and information services and other business services, but has a negative impact on other sectors. (4) Extended analysis suggests that the positive impact of digital trade rules is not limited to digital service exports, but also significantly promotes digital goods exports, particularly for information and communication technology products.

Based on the research findings and current realities, this paper proposes the following policy recommendations to further narrow the "digital divide" and inject more Chinese elements into global digital trade rule-making: (1) Construct a "Chinese-style" template through higher-level regional trade agreements; (2) Actively align with high-standard digital trade rules and formulate a rule system that aligns with China's interests; (3) Promote digital infrastructure construction to continuously enhance China's digital competitiveness; (4) Strengthen digital security barriers to safeguard China's digital and national security during development, supporting the high-quality development of China's digital trade.