社会经济的高速发展，导致了水资源消耗过度，水污染排放增大，在河流中体现为水量的变化和水质的恶化。针对当前研究忽视了水资源和水环境对社会经济的互馈联系，河流综合评估时对水质水量内在联系考虑不足以及较少从经济系统角度解析河流变化的驱动因素等问题，本文以长春市为研究区，利用系统动力学模型和多元回归模型构建了社会经济-水资源-水环境的耦合关系，分析了河流水质水量分布特征。基于Copula模型引入了水资源改善度、水质改善度和水质水量联合改善度指标，实现了河流水质水量的综合评估，划分了综合管控分区。利用投入产出表和结构分解分析模型从行业河道取水和污染入河的角度解析河流变化驱动因素，并提出针对性的河流管理策略。主要研究结论包括：

（1）行业结构调整使得GDP增加了13.73%，污染治理措施使得COD和NH₃-N排放量降低了24.92%和21.18%，水资源节约措施使得总用水量减少了2.84%。三类措施的综合实施效果要优于单类措施的效果。具体来看，综合作用使得GDP增加量、COD减排量、NH₃-N减排量和总用水增量最大，分别为79.84%、34.11%、52.50%和7.56%。

（2）生态补水增大了新凯河、双阳河、沐石河和卡岔河的水量，调水工程使得饮马河和伊通河的河段水量最大增加了22.03%和8.46%，但使得第二松花江和拉林河水量降低了2.74%~3.97%和2.23%~2.74%。长春市第二松花江和拉林河水质良好，伊通河流经市辖区段、新凯河、沐石河、卡岔河和双阳河水质较差，污染治理措施的加强使得河流水质达标率提高了12.50%。

（3）长春市河流水质水量边缘分布主要以威布尔和伽马分布为主，联合概率分布主要以Frank和Clayton分布为主。在综合情景下（考虑行业结构调整、污染治理和水资源节约措施）除沐石河WQJID-NH₃-N为0.98外，其余河段均大于1，河流改善效果最为明显。伊通河除综合情景外各河段均处于优先重点管控区，沐石河各河段在各个情景中处于重点管控区，第二松花江河流状况较好，各河段处于一般管控区和风险管控区。

（4）农业从河流中取水最大，占总量的70.17%~77.19%；COD污染入河主要来自农业和服务业，分别占总量的33.82%~67.71%和19.50%~55.60%；NH₃-N污染入河主要来自服务业，占总量的54.20%~84.55%。初级制造业、材料和能源转换业的用水乘数和污染排放乘数最大，表明这些行业扩张对河流水质水量影响最大。当各行业达到相同产值时，综合情景具有最小的河道取水量和污染入河量。最终需求水平是综合情景下COD和NH₃-N入河的主要因素，贡献了10561.06 t和450.58 t，污染排放强度和人口是其他情景污染入河增大的主要因素。

本研究加深了对社会经济、水资源和水环境复杂关系的认识，揭示了不同社会经济发展情景下长春市河流水质水量分布特征，并从经济系统角度阐明了各行业河道取水和污染入河的规律。研究成果可为河流综合管理提供依据，具有一定的理论意义和实践价值。

With the rapid development of social economy, water resources consume excessively and water pollution emissions increase. This is reflected in the change of water quantity and the deterioration of water quality in rivers. At present, the feedback effect of water resources and water environment on social economy was neglected. In the comprehensive evaluation of rivers, the internal relationship between water quality and quantity is less explored. And the driving factors of river changes are less analyzed from the perspective of economic system. In this paper, Changchun City was taken as the study area. The coupling relationship between social economy, water resources and water environment was constructed through system dynamics model and multivariate regression model. The distribution characteristics of river water quality and quantity were analyzed. Based on the copula model, the indicators of water quality improvement degree, water quantity improvement degree and water quality-quantity joint improvement degree were introduced. These indicators comprehensively evaluated river water quality and quantity and divided the management zones. The driving factors of river changes were identified by the input-output table and structural decomposition analysis model. And river comprehensive management strategies were proposed. The main conclusions include:

(1) The industrial structure adjustment increased GDP by 13.73%. The pollution control measures decreased COD and NH₃-N emissions by 24.92% and 21.18%. The water conservation measures decreased the total water consumption by 2.84%. The comprehensive implementation effect of the three types of measures was better than that of the single type of measures. Specifically, The combined effect made the GDP increment, COD emission reduction, NH₃-N emission reduction and total water consumption increment the largest, which were 79.84%, 34.11%, 52.50% and 7.56%, respectively.

(2) The ecological water replenishment increased the water resource of Xinkai River, Shuangyang River, Mushi River and Kacha River. The water diversion project increased the water resource of Yinma River and Yitong River by 22.03% and 8.46%, but further reduced the water resource of the Second Songhua River and Lalin River by 2.74%~3.97% and 2.23%~2.74%. The water quality of the Second Songhua River and Lalin River was great. The water quality of Xinkai River, Mushi River, Kacha River, Shuangyang River and Yitong River flows through the municipal district section was poor. The strengthening of pollution control measures had increased the water quality compliance rate by 12.50%.

(3) The edge distribution of river water quality and quantity in Changchun were mainly Weibull and Gamma distribution, and the joint probability distribution were mainly Frank and Clayton distribution. Under the comprehensive scenario (considering industrial restructuring, pollution control and water conservation measures), except that the WQJID-NH₃-N of Mushi River was 0.98, the rest of the river sections were greater than 1, and the effect of river improvement was the most obvious. Yitong River was in the priority management area except for the comprehensive scenario. Mushi River was in the key management area in each scenario. The Second Songhua River was in good condition, and each river section was in the general management area and risk management area.

(4) The water intake and COD into the river of agriculture were the largest, accounting for 70.17%~77.19% and 63.29%~71.22% of the total amount, respectively. NH₃-N into the river was mainly from the service industry, accounting for 48.40% ~ 55.38% of the total amount. The water consumption multiplier and pollution emission multiplier of primary manufacturing, materials and energy conversion industries were the largest, indicating that the expansion of these industries had the greatest impact on rivers. When each industry reached the same output value, the comprehensive scenario had the smallest river water intake and pollution into the river. The final demand level was the main factor that promoted COD and NH₃-N into the river under the comprehensive scenario, contributing 10561.06 t and 450.58 t. The pollution emission intensity and population were the main factors that promoted the increase of pollution into the river under other scenarios.

This study deepened the cognition of the relationship between social economy, water resources and water environment. The distribution characteristics of river water quality and quantity in Changchun city under different social and economic development scenarios were revealed. From the perspective of economic system, the law of water intake and pollution into rivers in various industries was clarified. The research can provide a guidence for the comprehensive management of rivers.