随着网络购物产业的发展，快递业务量迅速增长的同时也带来了大量的快递包装废物。为了全面评估快递包装废物在处理与资源化过程中给环境带来的影响，并分析其对温室效应环境影响的减量潜能，本研究对快递包装废物进行了物质流分析，并利用EASETECH模型，采取ILCD推荐方法对快递包装废物进行全生命周期环境影响评价（LCA）；运用参数敏感率指标分析系统参数对LCA结果产生的影响，用蒙特卡洛模拟对参数进行不确定性分析，并用Sobol指数分析参数的全局敏感性；在识别关键参数的基础上进行参数优化，分析新情景下系统减排潜能。结果表明，在基准情景下，基于2018年产生的929万吨快递包装废物，系统的温室效应环境影响潜能为405 kg CO₂ eq；生命周期各阶段中，生产环节、纸板回收加工与再生纸板替代环节以及纸板和塑料的焚烧环节对总体环境影响有显著贡献。参数敏感性分析识别出的敏感参数为纸板组分比例，纸板回收比例，纸板加工有效质量比，纸板加工替代比例，焚烧技术占比，焚烧厂电能回收效率和热能回收效率。不确定性分析的结果表明，系统的温室效应环境影响潜能值是均值为432 kg CO₂ eq，标准差为22.6 kg CO₂ eq的正态分布。在进行全局敏感性分析后，得到对结果不确定性贡献最大的全局敏感参数为纸板回收比例、纸板加工替代比例、焚烧技术占比和焚烧厂热能回收比例。将敏感参数进行优化，进行新情景下快递包装废物的物质流分析以及生命周期评价。结果表明，在新情景下系统的碳减排潜能为34.9%。因此通过提高纸板回收比例，增大焚烧技术占比并提高焚烧热能回收比例可以有效地减少快递包装废物对环境的影响。

As online-shopping developing rapidly, the amount of the expressage has greatly increased, resulting in large quantities of express delivery packages. In order to assess the environmental impacts of express delivery packages in the process of treatment and recovery and to analyze the reduction potential of the global warming impacts, we conducted material flow analysis and life cycle assessment of the waste packages with EASETECH using the LICD recommended method. We also calculated the sensitivity ratio of the parameters to identify their influence to the final results. Moreover, Monte Carlo method was introduced to the uncertainty analysis. Sobol method was also used to describe the global sensitivity of parameters. After identifying the key parameters, we built a new scenario where the parameters were optimized and assessed the potential of emission reduction. We found that in the basic scenario the environmental impact to global warming of the system based on 9.29 million tons of packaging waste generated in 2018 was 405kg CO₂ eq. In the life cycle of waste packages, the production of packages, the recycling and recovery of waste board and the incineration of waste paper and plastics made significant contribution to total environmental impacts. The proportion of card board in packaging waste, the recycling ratio of card board, the ratio of effective processing of card board, the proportion of incineration and the ratio of the electricity and heat recovery during incineration were the most sensitive parameters. In addition, with the parameters’ uncertainty, the environmental impacts to global warming of the system turned out to be a normal distribution with a mean value of 432 kg CO₂ eq and a standard deviation of 22.6 kg CO₂ eq. The recycling ratio of card board, the substitution ratio of the card board, the proportion of incineration and the ratio of heat recovery during incineration were proved to be the key parameters. In the new scenario in which the parameters were optimized, we carried out material flow analysis and life cycle assessment again, and found that the carbon emission could decrease by 34.9%. As a result, we can reduce the impact of packaging waste from express to our environment by increasing the recycling ratio of card board, the proportion of incineration and the ratio of heat recovery during incineration.