“世界杯”是现代足球最高水平的竞技赛事，也是见证现代足球技战术变化与发展的 重要竞技舞台。本研究将以体育学理论为支撑，利用足球运动表现分析的相关理论和研究 方法，以传球区域路线为切入点，划分比赛场地区域，并基于马尔可夫链模型分析国际高 水平足球队的传球路线与创造得分机会的关系，探究国际高水平足球队传球路线的竞技相 关性(Competitive relevance)。深入了解当今世界高水平足球队传球路线特点和趋势并把握其规律，以期够为中国足球的日常训练和比赛提供科学和系统的参考。 本研究运用文献资料法、录像观察法、数理统计法、对比分析法、逻辑分析法对 2018 年世界杯足球赛的前三名球队（冠军法国队、第二名克罗地亚队、第三名比利时队）共 21 场比赛的传球路线进行分析。 研究结果显示： 1.本文划分的足球场 12 个区域中直接创造得分机会威胁最高的区域是前场中路区域 （ZS）；前场左路区域（LS）和前场右路区域（RS）通过传中或者射门直接创造得分机会 的形式排第二名；中前场的三个区域（中路、左路、右路）排第三名；后场 6 个区域不是 直接创造得分机会的主要区域。 2.通过中场边路区域（包括中前场边路区域和中后场边路区域）组织进攻形成传中或 射门是 2018 年世界杯前三名球队最有威胁的传球路线；在 2018 年世界杯前三名球队的 21场比赛中，由中场中路区域（包括中前场中路区域和中后场中路区域）向边路区域转移球并不是创造威胁的传球路线。

The FIFA World Cup represents the highest competing level of model football, and it is also a very important arena which witnesses the development of football skills and tactics. The current research will base on the theory of physical education, use theories and methods in football performance analysis. The data will be interpreted firstly from passing routes, combining the classification of the playing field and analysis of the relationship between top teams ’passing routes and scoring opportunities based on the Markov chain model, to explore the competitive relevance of the top three international football teams’passing routes. The main purpose of the study is to elaborate the traits, trends and rules world top team’s passing routes, in order to provide scientific and systematic references for the daily training and competitions of Chinese football. The current research used the literature data method, video observation method, mathematical statistics method, comparative analysis method, and logic analysis method on the top three teams in 2018 FIFA World Cup (champion team France, second place team Croatia, third place team Belgium). Passing routes data from 21 games in total were analyzed. Results show: 1. Among the 12 football field regions used in the study, the area with the highest threat of directly creating scoring opportunities is the front field middle area (ZS). The front field left area(LS) and front field right area (RS) tie for the second threatening area, where chances are mostly created by crossing or shooting. The third threatening areas are the three regions in the middle and front field (middle, left, right), while the backcourt six regions rank in the last place. 2. The most threatening passing routes of top teams are crossing or shooting organized from the midfield sidewalk area (including the midfield sidewalk area and the mid-backcourt sidewalk area). Among the 21 analyzed games, passing from midfielder area (including midfield middle area and the mid-backcourt middle area) to the sidewalk area would not bring threat.