文化产业是新兴概念和朝阳产业，从2000年国家正式提出文化产业的概念，到次贷危机、“四万亿计划”期和经济新常态时期，文化产业走过了经济周期的复苏、繁荣、滞涨、衰退、萧条等各个阶段，近年来文化和科技的融合又再次点燃了市场对文化产业的热情，文化产业和经济周期的关系成为一个具有重要意义的研究课题。 2008年次贷危机以来，国内流行文化产业具有“抗周期”性（亦称反周期、逆周期、抗衰性）的说法，甚至说文化产业是金融危机的“避风港”，近年来这种说法影响力有增无减。根据笔者研究，支持文化产业抗周期说法的理由有四条：一是2008年经济危机后文化产业逆势崛起，二是好莱坞电影公司在大萧条时期得到大发展，三是日本、韩国、美国都存在经济危机后文化产业异常繁荣的现象，四是中国历来有“国家不幸诗家幸”的说法，表面上看这四条理由推出文化产业的抗周期性，提倡在经济困难时候加大文化产业投融资力度，引导投资者和文化经营者对文化产业逆周期投融资，似乎有一定道理。但是，笔者经过仔细思考文化产业的特性，并搜集数据验证，文化产业之所以表现出一定的抗周期性，主要原因是文化产业在经济周期中具有时滞效应。 本文通过研究文化产业高融合性、双重弹性、衍生性三个特征，分析文化产品生命周期的酝酿期、生产期、消费期、回馈期，得出文化产业在经济周期的滞涨、衰退或者萧条期表现良好，实际上是文化产业与高科技、基建等先行产业融合的结果，电影等文化产品制作期较长，在经济繁荣后上映期有一定的滞后性，一般会形成“繁荣之后出大片”的现象。笔者进一步抽样上市文化公司营业收入数据与2009年至2014年GDP增速对比分析，得出短周期中文化产业的时滞效应约1年；把国家统计局文化及相关产业增加值、财政部全国文化体育传媒经费与2001年至2014年GDP增速数据对比分析，得出中周期中文化产业的时滞效应约2-5年；从国家兴衰、朝代更迭和三次科技革命等社会变革的长周期角度，文化产业也存在时滞效应，滞后期更长。基于文化产业的特性分析、时滞效应数据验证和经济学分析，得出文化产业在经济周期中具有时滞效应的结论，而与之对应的高科技产业在经济周期中往往是先行产业，笔者据此提出“起于科技，兴于文化”的理想经济周期模式。 文化企业投融资应该正视时滞效应的规律，产业振兴政策、信贷政策、资本市场投资和文化企业投资经营等领域应该在经济周期的不同阶段实行不同的投融资策略，在金融业支持文化产业发展中顺势而为，科学合理推动文化产业与金融业的对接，真正实现把文化产业培育成新的经济增长点和促进文化大发展、大繁荣的目的，进而提高国家文化软实力，维护国家文化安全，让源远流长的中华文化与市场经济交相辉映。

The cultural industry is a new concept and a sunrise industry. From the concept of the cultural industry officially proposed by the state in 2000 to the subprime mortgage crisis, the “four trillion plan” period and the new economic normal period, the cultural industry has gone through the recovery and prosperity of the economic cycle. Included stagnation, recession, depression and other stages. In recent years, the integration of culture and technology has once again ignited the market's enthusiasm for the cultural industry. The relationship between the cultural industry and the economic cycle has become an important research topic. Since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, a saying is more and more popular, that the cultural industry has the characteristics of “anti-cyclicality” (also known as counter-cyclical, counter-cyclical, and anti-aging), Some people even say that the cultural industry is a "safe haven" for the financial crisis. In recent years, the influence of this saying has not weakened, but it has increased. According to the author's research, there are four reasons for supporting the anti-cyclical statement of the cultural industry: 1. After the economic crisis in 2008, the cultural industry rose against the trend. 2. The Hollywood film company gained great development during the Great Depression. 3. Japan, South Korea, and the United States all have phenomena of cultural prosperity after the economic crisis. 4. Chinese have always had the saying that “when the country is not prosperous and poetry is prosperous”. On the surface, these four reasons support the anti-cyclicality of the cultural industry. During the economic recession, it is reasonable to encourage the investment and financing of the cultural industry, to guide investors and cultural operators to counter-cyclical investment. However, after careful consideration of the characteristics of the cultural industry, and the collection and verification of data, the main reason for the anti-cycle of the cultural industry is that the cultural industry has a time lag effect in the economic cycle. This paper studies the three characteristics of high integration, dual flexibility and derivativeness of cultural industry, and analyzes the gestation period, production period, consumption period and feedback period of cultural product life cycle. The cultural industry has performed well during the stagflation, recession or depression of the economic cycle. It is actually the result of the integration of the cultural industry with the advanced industries such as high technology and infrastructure. Cultural products such as movies have a long production period, and there is a certain lag time in the release period after the economic boom. Usually, it will form a phenomenon of "there will be a lot of big movies after an?economic?boom." Then, by comparing the operating income data of the listed cultural companies with the GDP growth rate from 2009 to 2014, the time lag effect of the cultural industry in the short cycle is about 1 years; Comparing the added value of the cultural industry of the National Bureau of Statistics, the national cultural and sports media funds of the Ministry of Finance and the GDP growth rate from 2001 to 2014, the time lag effect of the cultural industry in the middle cycle is about 2-5 years; From the perspective of the long-term cycle of social change such as the rise and fall of the country, the change of the dynasty and the three scientific and technological revolutions, the cultural industry also has a time lag effect, and the lag period is longer. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of cultural industries, data verification and economic analysis of time-lag effects, it is concluded that the cultural industry has a time-delay effect in the economic cycle. The corresponding high-tech industry is often the first industry in the economic cycle. Based on this, this paper proposes the ideal economic cycle model that economic recovery depends on science and technology, and economic prosperity depends on culture. We should face the time lag effect in the field of investment and financing of the cultural industry, such as industrial revitalization policy, credit policy, capital market investment and cultural enterprise investment and management. Also, we should implement different investment and financing strategies at different stages of the economic cycle. Let us go with the tide in the development of finance supporting cultural industry. Let us cultivate cultural industry into a new economic growth point, promote cultural development and prosperity, enhance the soft power of national culture, ensure the national cultural security. Let the long-standing Chinese culture and market economy shine together.