环境风险对青少年心理社会和认知学业等多方面发展结果的消极影响不言而喻。以往研究大多基于经典的地位获得理论对环境风险损害青少年教育期望予以解释，本研究将采用生命史理论，为这一关系提供来自进化心理学的全新解读。生命史理论认为，不同环境会使青少年在躯体努力和繁衍努力的权衡过程中形成不同的生命史策略，他们在长期/短期目标导向上存在差异。受教育程度通过受教育年限体现，在目标导向方面反映了青少年的生命史策略。环境风险包括环境严酷性和环境不可预测性两个基本维度，均可促使青少年形成快速生命史策略，进一步在学业领域表现为更低的教育期望，然而相关实证研究尚较缺乏。此外，上世纪80年代以来，女生教育期望开始超越男生并且至今保持优势地位，教育期望出现了“新性别差异”。期望-价值模型提示环境风险会通过父母教育卷入影响青少年教育期望，这一作用机制有助于解释教育期望“新性别差异”，并为今后精准干预提供科学指导。综上所述，本论文将在环境风险领域的最新维度研究取向下，采用变量、个体双视角，基于生命史理论、环境风险的维度理论和期望-价值模型，检验环境严酷性、环境不可预测性及其组合与青少年教育期望的关系，并考察亲子沟通、学业辅导、家校沟通、共同活动、家庭监控等五种父母教育卷入的中介作用及上述过程的性别差异。

本论文数据来源于中国教育追踪调查，选取同时参与2013-2014基线和2014-2015追访两次调查的6668名七年级青少年的学生问卷和家长问卷数据。研究一采用变量视角，共选取30个具有良好内容效度的环境严酷性、环境不可预测性具体指标，采用序列回归考察其与青少年教育期望的关系，以检验其实证效度。之后构造环境严酷性和环境不可预测性累积风险指数，检验二者与青少年教育期望的关系及联合作用模式。研究二采用个体视角，根据环境风险两维度累积风险指数，采用潜在剖面分析方法识别青少年所处环境风险组合。同时使用多因素方差分析考察不同组合青少年的教育期望差异，再次验证不同环境风险的联合作用模式。研究三采用变量、个体双视角，使用路径分析、结构方程模型和多类别自变量中介效应检验，考察五种父母教育卷入在环境风险两维度累积风险指数及其不同组合与青少年教育期望关系中的中介作用，并使用Wald差异检验探索其中的性别差异。

本论文研究结果如下：

（1）中国教育追踪调查中早期、目前家庭经济状况，父母职业，社区设施状况等15个环境严酷性具体指标及早期青少年健康状况，青少年留级、休学、转学状况，父母吵架、离婚、去世，社区安全状况等15个环境不可预测性具体指标，具有良好的内容效度。同时，上述指标（除休学状况、母亲去世和邻居人员类型）均能够显著负向预测青少年教育期望，具有良好的实证效度。

（2）变量视角下，环境严酷性累积风险指数、环境不可预测性累积风险指数均能够显著负向预测青少年教育期望。环境风险两维度对青少年教育期望的交互作用不显著。

（3）个体视角下，青少年所处环境风险存在三种组合，分别是低严酷-低不可预测组（占比65.56%）、中严酷-中不可预测组（占比29.21%）和中严酷-高不可预测组（占比5.23%）。三组青少年教育期望依次降低，环境风险两个基本维度的联合作用模式符合双风险模式。

（4）变量视角下，亲子沟通、学业辅导、家校沟通、共同活动和家庭监控等五种父母教育卷入均在环境严酷性累积风险指数、环境不可预测性累积风险指数与青少年教育期望关系中起到显著中介作用。个体视角下，相比于低严酷-低不可预测组，在中严酷-中不可预测组和中严酷-高不可预测组中，五种父母教育卷入的相对中介效应均显著。

（5）青少年教育期望女生显著高于男生。父母亲子沟通、共同活动和家庭监控的频率女生显著高于男生，父母学业辅导和家校沟通的频率男生显著高于女生。环境风险通过父母教育卷入影响青少年教育期望的部分路径存在显著性别差异：在变量视角下，相比于男生，在女生中环境严酷性累积风险指数负向预测父母家校沟通频率的作用更强；个体视角细化了这一结果，相比于低严酷-低不可预测组，在中严酷-高不可预测组中，相比于男生，女生的父母家校沟通频率更低。在变量、个体双视角下，相比于女生，家庭监控和学业辅导正向预测青少年教育期望的作用在男生中更强。其余作用路径不存在显著性别差异。

本论文采用变量、个体双视角，基于生命史理论、环境风险的维度理论和期望-价值模型，为环境风险及其组合损害青少年教育期望提供了来自进化视角的全新解读。同时检验了父母教育卷入的中介作用及性别差异，为教育期望“新性别差异”提供了来自家庭教养的解释和干预思路。本研究也号召更多学者关注并了解维度研究取向——这一环境风险领域的最新研究取向，应用其基本理论，开展更多研究。

The negative impact of environmental risks on adolescents’ psychological, social, cognitive, and academic outcomes is self-evident. Previous studies almost have based on the classical Blau-Duncan status attainment model and other related theories to explain the negative relationship between environmental risks and adolescents’ educational expectation, and the research will use life history theory to provide a new interpretation from evolutionary psychology. Life history theory suggests that different environments make adolescents to adjust different life history strategies in the balance of somatic effort and reproductive effort, and they also hold differences in long-term/short-term goal orientation. Educational expectation is reflected in the years of education which reflects adolescents’ life history strategy in terms of goal orientation. Environmental risks include two fundamental dimensions: environmental harshness and environmental unpredictability, which force adolescents to adopt fast life history strategies and further manifest lower educational expectation. However, relevant empirical studies are still lacking. In addition, since the 1980s, girls’ educational expectation began to surpass that of boys and have maintained a dominant position so far, resulting in a “new gender gap” of educational expectation. The expectancy-value model suggests that environmental risks affect adolescents’ educational expectation through parental involvement, which provides a new perspective to explain “new gender gap” and offers scientific guidance for future precision intervention. To sum up, under the latest dimensional approach in the field of environmental risks, the research will adopt a dual perspective of variable-centered and individual-centered, according to life history theory, theorization for potent dimensions of environmental adversity, and expectancy-value model, to test the relationship between environmental harshness, environmental unpredictability, and their potential categories with adolescents’ educational expectation. The mediating roles of five dimensions of parental involvement, namely parent-child communication, homework assistance, parent-school communication, parent-child activity and home monitoring, and the gender differences in the above processes will also be investigated.

Using the China Education Panel Survey (CEPS), we selected the data of the student questionnaire and parent questionnaire of 6668 seventh grade adolescents who participated in both 2013-2014 baseline survey and 2014-2015 follow-up survey. Study 1 adopted variable-centered perspective, 30 specific indicators of environmental harshness and environmental unpredictability with good content validity were selected, and the relationship between them with adolescents’ educational expectation was examined by hierarchical multiple regression, testing their empirical validity. Then, we constructed cumulative environmental risk indices of harshness and unpredictability, and examined the relationship as well as joint effect pattern between the two and adolescents’ educational expectation. Study 2 adopted individual-centered perspective, according to two cumulative environmental risk indices of harshness and unpredictability, latent profile analysis was used to identify environmental risks potential categories, and the difference of adolescents’ educational expectation in different categories was investigated to reverify the joint effect pattern of different environmental risks using multivariate ANOVA at the same time. Study 3 adopted a dual perspective of variable-centered and individual-centered, through path analysis, structural equation modeling and mediation analysis of multi-categorical independent variables, to exam the mediating roles of five parental involvement in the relationship between two cumulative environmental risk indices and their different categories with adolescents’ educational expectation, and explore the gender differences among them under Wald test.

The research results are as follows:

(1) In CEPS, 15 specific indicators of environmental harshness, such as early and current family economic status, parents’ occupation, and community facilities, and 15 specific indicators of environmental unpredictability, such as adolescents’ health, adolescents’ repeat grade, suspension and transfer status, parents’ quarrel, divorce and death, and community safety, have good content validity. At the same time, the above indicators (except suspension, mother’s death and neighbor type) significantly negatively predict adolescents’ educational expectation, which proved them have good empirical validity.

(2) From variable-centered perspective, both environmental harshness cumulative risk index and environmental unpredictability cumulative risk index significantly negatively predict adolescents’ educational expectation. The interaction between them is not significant.

(3) From individual-centered perspective, there are three potential categories of environmental risks among adolescents, namely, low harshness-low unpredictability group, medium harshness-medium unpredictability group and medium harshness-high unpredictability group, accounting for 65.56%, 29.21% and 5.23% respectively. Adolescents’ educational expectation in the three groups decreases successively, and the joint effect pattern of the two fundamental environmental dimensions is in line with dual-risk pattern.

(4) From variable-centered perspective, parent-child communication, homework assistance, parent-school communication, parent-child activity, and home monitoring significantly mediates the relationship between cumulative risk indices of environmental harshness and unpredictability with adolescents’ educational expectation. From individual-centered perspective, compared with low harshness-low unpredictability group, the relative mediation of the five parental involvements is significant both in the medium harshness-medium unpredictability group and medium harshness-high unpredictability group.

(5) Adolescents’ educational expectation is significantly higher in girls than boys. The frequency of parent-child communication, parent-child activity and home monitoring is higher in girls than boys, and the frequency of homework assistance and parent-school communication is higher in boys than girls. There are also significant gender differences in the relationship between environmental risks predicting adolescents’ educational expectation through parental involvement. From variable-centered perspective, environmental harshness cumulative risk index negatively predicts parent-school communication in girls more than boys. The individual-centered perspective further refines this result, showing that the frequency of parent-school communication is lower in girls’ parents than for boys in the low harshness-low unpredictability group and medium harshness-high unpredictability group. From a dual perspective, homework assistance and home monitoring positively predict adolescents’ educational expectation in boys more than girls. There are no significant gender differences in other relationships.

From a dual perspective of variable-centered and individual-centered, based on life history theory, theorization for potent dimensions of environmental adversity and expectancy-value model, the research provides a new interpretation from an evolutionary perspective for environmental risks and their potential categories that damage adolescents’ educational expectation. At the same time, it examines the mediating role of parental involvement and gender differences, providing explanations and intervention ideas for “new gender gap” of educational expectation from family daily parenting. It also calls on more researchers to pay attention to the latest and promising dimensional approach in environmental risks filed, apply its basic theories, and carry out more meaningful research.