在过去的二三十年间，中国经济的快速增长对土地利用产生了显著的影响，快速的工业化和城市化进程受到了高度的关注。但是中国的人均可利用土地远低于世界的平均水平，社会经济的高速发展造成了城市建设用地规模的迅速扩大，在部分地区甚至出现了恶性膨胀的现象，对中国的耕地保护和环境保护带来了极大的压力以及其他负面外部性影响。这些问题是的出现迫使人们重新思考应当采取怎样的方式来进行土地利用的相关规划。然而，土地利用规划本身的复杂性，以及业已存在的诸多问题，使得探索新型土地利用规划概念的道路变得愈加艰难。Build-out analysis 是一种基于地理信息系统（GIS），研究在自然环境、社会经济条件、法律法规和分区制度的多重约束下，预测特定区域未来所有可能增长情况的方法。通过对区域未来发展中可利用土地的可视化表达和对未来发展的虚拟情景的模拟，build-out Analysis可以用来确定在当前区划规则以及政策制度的框架下，研究区内哪些地方还需要进行更细致的分区，哪些地方还能产生多少额外的增长。这是一个通过构建未来合理化的发展模式以保持环境与发展之间的平衡，鼓励和支持当当地经济发展、维持和改善生活质量的重要工具。Build-out Analysis有助于帮助决策者和公众了解当前分区条件下的区域可能的增长模式以及未来人口增长、土地消费、交通和水资源需求等方面的影响。对这一过程的分析有助于城镇制订发展战略，优化未来土地开发模式。本文的主要研究内容有以下几点：（1）从相关理论和实践研究出发，在回顾土地利用的各种基本理论和方法的基础上，结合国外实践研究案例，分析了Build-outAnalysis方法与土地利用规划的关系，探讨此方法在土地利用规划中的应用模式。（2）本文以中国当前土地利用的现状和特点为基础，并结合土地利用规划中相关的土地利用分区制度，分析了中国土地利用规划中存在的问题，对Build-out Analysis的具体方法进行了中国化的优化改进，使之成为符合中国土地利用规划的需要的可行方法。（3）以青岛市崂山区为例对Build-out Analysis在土地利用规划中的应用进行了研究。以崂山区社会经济发展现状以和土地开发利用限制性因素为基础，定性和定量相结合的分析了当地可利用土地的面积和空间分布，结合对区域未来发展不同虚拟情境的模拟，预测了未来土地利用、住宅和人口可能出现的增长，并评价这些增长会对区域社会、经济和环境方面带来的影响。通过对比常规土地利用规划方法和Build-out Analysis，从案例研究探讨中国当前土地利用规划的不足，并提出土地利用规划与城市规划相结合的方法。（4）在影响评价的基础上，比较各种发展情景下土地利用的综合效益，以求从中找出崂山未来土地利用的更优发展模式。

In the past decades, China’s rapid economic growth has had a significant impact on land use, and the rapid industrialization and urbanization have drawn high attention. But the per capita usable land of China is far below the world’s average. The rapid economic growth caused a rapid expansion of urban construction and even a vicious inflation in some area, which brought enormous pressure and other negative external effects on China's farmland protection and environmental protection. These problems forced people to rethink. Build-out Analysis is based on the geographic information system (GIS), in the current environment and land use regulations, under the dual constraints to predict all possible future of the region-specific growth tools. On land use through visual expression and future development of the virtual scenario simulation, Build-out Analysis Keyiyonglai Que Dingzai the current system of zoning Guizeyiji policy framework, Yanjiuqunei which Defang also more careful land use zoning, where the number can generate additional growth. This is a rationalization of the future through the development of model Building in order to maintain the balance between environment and development, encouragement and support when the local economic development, maintain and improve the quality of life important tool. Build out will help to help people understand the current regional conditions, the growth patterns and future population growth, land consumption, traffic and water demand such as long-term effects. The Analysis process so that cities and towns to formulate development strategies, optimizing future land development patterns.The main contents of this paper are included as follows: (1) Review basic theories and methodology of land use planning based on relevant literatures，papers and practice. Then，research the relationship of methodology between Build-out Analysis and land use planning, and discuss the application pattern of Build-out Analysis for land use planning. (2) Analysed existing problems of land use planning in China based on current situation and characteristics of land use combining with relevant land use zoning system, improved the specific methods of Build-out Analysis with Chinese characteristics to make it as a possible way that meets the needs of land use planning in China. (3) Studied on the application of build-out analysis in land use planning taking Laoshan District in Qingdao as an example. Based on the socio-economic development situation and the limiting factors of land development and utilization, qualitative and quantitative analysed the available land space for the local area, combined with the different virtual simulations of the future development of the region, predicted the growth of the future land use, housing and population that may occur, and evaluated the impact the growth may bring to the local society, economy and enviroment. Comparing common land use planning methods and build-out Analysis method, discussed China's current shortage of land-use planning from the case study, and proposed an improved method and the implementation of safeguards. (4) Compared the overall efficiency of land use under various development scenarios based on the impact assessment to find a better development model of the future land use in Laoshan.